A great piece from the Saker. All along, Saker has been urging that Russia not send forces into Eastern Ukraine because the horrible downside for Russia will be too much. For instance, he argued that if Putin attacked the Ukraine:
- The US and EU would wildly ramp up sanctions against Russia.
- They would quickly make what is left of the Ukraine part of NATO and plant NATO bases all over the country. They would probably plant lots of nice missiles all over those bases.
- A new Cold War would be ramped up by the US with its EU colonies/slaves/servants in the EU going along. Defense spending in the US would ramp back up wildly to Cold War levels. The START treaty would be cancelled and US nuclear bomb production would begin again.
- A massive propaganda barrage in the US and in its EU vassals would portray Putin as “the new Hitler.” There is no opposition media in the US or the EU, so the entire media apparatus of every state would be used to promote the new Putin = Hitler lie. 100’s of millions of Western sheep would go along because if you blast the same propaganda on every channel and in every paper and magazine for long enough, a lot of people start getting brainwashed. Even smart, sophisticated cosmopolitan Europeans.
- It would kill all chances for a negotiated peace, which is what Putin really wants.
- The US and NATO might get involved in the war. Certainly the US is insane enough to do that, but would they really? Who knows?
The problem is that all of that is doomed to occur anyway. No matter what Putin does in Eastern Ukraine, endlessly ramped up sanctions are on the table. Ukraine is already a Western allied state except for Crimea and the West. It is filled with FBI and CIA agents and Blackwater mercenaries. So Ukraine is already a fanatically Russia-hating NATO state no matter what Putin does.
No sense worrying about a new Cold War, as no matter what Putin does, the US has already started a new Cold War against him anyway. Bulgaria already tried to step out of line and disobey their US master, but John McCain quickly threatened them, and the Bulgaria, the supplicant slave, quickly scurried back into line.
Putin is already the new Hitler and nothing he does from now on is going to change that. The Putin = Hitler propaganda campaign is going full bore with no end in sight. The campaign will continue no matter what Putin does.
Obviously, with his inauguration speech, the Ukrainian leader has completely sold out to the USA, who is now giving him marching orders. From now on, he is America’s bitch. The US has outmaneuvered the EU folks who were trying for a negotiated agreement to the crisis. The EU has surrendered that option and now they are all lining up with the US anyway. So a negotiated solution is not going to happen anyway – the Ukrainian leader has just ruled it out.
The US is a paper tiger, as Mao said. For all the bleating and bellowing, at the end of the day, America is just another mangy cur barking away in the junkyard. Let the dogs bark all they want to. I really do not think the US is insane enough to jump into a war with Russia. Are they insane enough to do that? Of course they are. But would they? That is really doubtful.
So in essence all of the dreaded consequences of a Russian invasion of the Ukraine have already happened anyway even though no Russian soldier has so much as stepped one foot over the border.
In other words, Putin has nothing to gain by refusing to fight and leaving his fellow Russians to hang. And he has absolutely nothing to lose by going on.
I would advise Putin to go in quickly, seize the major cities, and fight any Ukrainians who resist. The Ukrainians will probably just retreat. After they retreat, put Russian peacekeepers in the Donbass National Republic just as Russia has done in Transdniestria, South Ossetia and Abkhazia. Let them declare themselves a separate country like the three states above have done. The three states above all want to join Russia, but Russia does not want to take them in for whatever reason. Virtually no one will recognize the new independent country (almost no one has recognized the new nations above) but it matters not. Just as in the three countries above, do not allow the DNR to join the Russian state. Let them sit in de facto independence.
Go! Go! Go Putin go!
Saker rant: Please tell me my worst fears will not come true!
Several Serbian commentators have expressed their concern, if not outright worry, about what is happening right now in Novorossia. I have to admit that I now share that concern. While I am not Serbian myself, some of the longtime readers of that blog know that I have had the opportunity to follow the entire war in Bosnia and Croatia literally minute by minute while working for the UN far away from Yugoslavia, but with daily access to UNPROFOR reports and with the possibility to debrief any UNPROFOR officers including two Force Commanders.
For me this war will forever feel ‘raw’ because that was the event which really opened by eyes to the nature of the so-called “free and democratic West” and which, combined with the war in Chechnya, eventually cost me my career. I will thus readily admit that I might be over-reacting. In fact, my brain tells me one thing, but my gut tells me another and as a result I am feeling a very unpleasant but persistent feeling of alarm.
It all began when I finally listened to the full inauguration speech of Poroshenko. Up to that moment, I had some hopes that while even though this would be difficult, some kind of reasonable beginning of some kind of peace process could be negotiated with the man. I knew that the guy was an unprincipled prostitute, but it was precisely that “quality” which made me cautiously hopeful: better a rational prostitute that a crazed lunatic, right?
Listening to him I understood that in this case Poroshenko was completely bought by the USA and that vague European effort to negotiate something had be summarily tossed out into the trash bin. As I wrote in a previous post, his message to Novorossia and Russia was as simple as it was blunt:
- No federalization
- No state status for the Russian language
- No recognition of the Novorossian political leadership
- Full and unconditional surrender of the Novorossian Defense Forces
- Crimea will forever belong to the Ukraine
So this was Poroshenko’s “peace plan”. In fact, Juan was absolutely right: it was a declaration of war combined with an ultimatum demanding a total and unconditional surrender. The fingerprints of Uncle Sam were all over the place. I was appalled by the lunacy of this “peace plan” but soon my disgust turned into horror when I saw the Russian reaction.
Instead of walking out from this zoo (Poroshenko got US-style standing ovations at each of the worst of his statement), the Russian ambassador just sat there. The Ministry of Foreign affairs did not comment either. As for the Russian media, it did summarize the event, but most of its attention was focused on the latest kidnapping of yet another two Russian journalists and on the floods around Barnaul in Russia. As for Putin, he announced that the had ordered the FSB to close down the section of the border which had been liberated by the NDF to prevent “the passage of illegal groups”.
Not good. Not good at all. And it did remind me of Bosnia.
Quick flashback: the Bosnian Serbs had basically won the war and defeated both the Bosnian-Croats and their supporters in Croatia and the Bosnian-Muslims and their supporters from the Muslim world.
And yet they had to do that in spite of Milosevic who had agreed to cooperate with the Anglo-Zionist by participating in the Empire’s blockade of the Bosnian-Serb even though he knew full well that the Croats were getting convoys full of weapons, ammo and supplies from Croatia and that the Muslims were getting the same courtesy of the US and Turkish Air Forces. Milosevic sold out his own people against a promise to be allowed to rule over Serbia and Montenegro.
That promise was eventually broken (most Anglo-Zionist “promises” are), but at that time he thought he could negotiate with the devil. He then sold out the Serbs of Kosovo (the cradle of Serbia no less than Kiev is the cradle of Russia). That he then died poisoned in the Hague is hardly a consolation to me.
Now, as a good friend told me: Putin is not Milosevic and, besides, if Putin caves in now he would be committing political suicide. I agree. Or, should I say, my brain agrees. My gut is in full “red alert” mode and I have been walking with a knot in my stomach since 2 days now. Here is why,
First, I don’t think that Putin can simply pretend not to have noticed Poroshenko’s absolutely insane speech. What a candidate says is, indeed, not very relevant, but an inaugural speech is really a totally different matter: it is, by definition, a *program speech* which outlines the goals of the new President.
Second, what is happening now in Slaviansk, Kramatorsk and the rest of Novorossia is a humanitarian catastrophe and Putin has promised to prevent that.
Third, Russia’s careful and non-provocative stance is gradually being interpreted by the western media as a sign of weakness and this perception might be, in part, the cause for the escalation in both atrocities by the regime in Kiev and of the increasingly arrogant anti-Russian rhetoric of Western politicians.
I am most definitely not an admirer of Dugin, but he recently said something which I fully agree with: he said that the future of the planet is being decided in Slaviansk, Kramatorsk, Krasnyi Liman and the rest of Novorossia because the outcome of this battle will decide whether Russia can stand her ground against Anglo-Zionist Empire and thereby initiate the liberation of the rest of the world or whether Russia will basically cave in. I fully agree with him. It is not an exaggeration to say that the future of the planet is being decided right now in Novorossia.
This is why I have a knot in my stomach. So far, I am most definitely not seeing the kind of reaction Poroshenko’s speech deserves. And it is not just words, like some say. The day of Poroshenko’s inauguration saw a violent increase in artillery strikes on Novorossia and an attack on a high level Novorussian official. Today – a Ukie artillery shell hit a church were the faithful were assembled for the feast of the Pentecost.
Putin has promised the Russian people (in Russia proper and outside) that he would not allow massive atrocities to take place against the population of Novorossia. They are clearly happening now. As for the “new” regime in Kiev, it is every bit as Nazi as the worst Right Sector lunatic would want. Uncle Sam has basically crushed every EU attempt at a negotiated outcome. This is most definitely not Putin’s fault or the fault of the poor people of Novorossiia, but there can me no more hope for a reasonable negotiated settlement.
Russia has to act now and used her armed forces to liberate Novorossia. Not to do so would be a betrayal of the Russian people.
My brain tells me that Putin will give the order to do so very soon. But the memories of Bosnia haunt me. So far Putin’s track record is excellent, pretty close to perfect. But for all my support for his policies, I never *trusted* him, at least not fully. Honestly, I cannot image what will happen if he does not give the order to move in because if he fails to do so he would be giving up on the entire strategic plan of what I call the Eurasian Sovereignists to “resovereignize” Russia and liberate her from the Anglo-Zionist Empire.
I cannot and do not want to believe that 14 years of struggle involving a great deal of dangers and, at times, truly superhuman efforts will now go to waste. And yet I have this knot sitting there inside my gut and that knot gets worse and worse with each lame and vapid statement coming out of the Kremlin.
The US is hell-bent on war with Russia and the EU has completely sold out. Nothing new here, the European elites *always* joined in what I call a “Ecumenical anti-Russian coalition” with the SOB of the day against Russia: they did so when the Papacy launched a crusade on Orthodoxy, they did so under Napoleon, they did so during the Crimean War and they did so during the Third Reich. So now that Eurotrash is on the side of Uncle Shmuel (a more accurate name for Uncle Sam, don’t you think?). What else is new?
This latest war might not be a “hot” one (although I really would not put anything past the Anglo-Zionist 1%ers), but it sure will be total and merciless anyhow. And there is only one way to put and end to this: the Russian bear must bare his fangs, make an example with the Ukie Nazis and show these European imbeciles that Russia means business.
So please tell me that I am wrong and that when push comes to shove Putin will have willpower and courage to stand his ground against what I can only call a satanic coalition of the most evil ideologies and people I can think of. I fully supported Russia’s non-intervention right up until Saturday and Poroshenko’s speech, but that policy has been taken to its limits and, to my immense regret, it has failed, primarily due to the truly unbelievable cowardice and immorality of the European political leaders (may they all rot in hell for selling out their own people the way they did it!).
It makes no sense to hope for a last minute miracle: those accursed EU bureaucrats did not find even a atom of dignity or decency inside themselves and as a result a full-scale Cold War v2 in Europe is now inevitable (the Bulgarians pushed their treachery one step beyond and under orders from McCain agreed to stop the work on South Stream).
My brain tells me that Putin will give the order. Soon.
But I have that horrible feeling in the pit of my stomach.
Please tell me that Putin is not Milosevic.
Please tell me my worst fears will not come true.