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More Election Predictions

Ed writes:

What you are really saying is that Hillary Clinton will defeat Donald Trump at the polls because she is more popular than Trump is. More people want her to become President. That is all you are saying.

But you did not make the argument until challenged in the comments. You hid it behind all this pseudo-sophisticated Electoral College nonsense.

It’s not pseudo-sophisticated, and it’s not nonsense. The Electoral College is all that matters. Everything else is crap. Trump is the most toxic Presidential candidate in recent memory. Over half of Republicans say either they are uncertain he would be a good President or they say he will be a lousy President. Fully 40% of Republicans say Trump will be a lousy President. 40%!

Hillary will win all of the battleground states, well, at least if the election were held today. She will win Florida, Colorado, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Virginia, and even North Carolina. Colorado, Virginia, and North Carolina have gotten much more liberal in 20 years. Ohio and Pennsylvania are flat, but they lean ~3-4 points Dem. Florida is flat, but she will win there. A Republican barely won the governor’s race recently despite spending a mountain of money.

Nevada, New Mexico, Wisconsin, Michigan, New Hampshire, have all gotten quite a bit more liberal in the last 20 years.

Not one single battleground state is getting more conservative over the last 20 years. Not one!

Hillary will not turn any red states though. At best, she could win Indiana and Arizona.

This is the longterm trend, and it will not be reversed.

Black turnout will be the same as 2012. Women despise Trump. Trump will win no more than 15-20% of Hispanics and maybe less than that. He has to win 66% of the White vote, and he might not even win 60%. His gains with working class Whites will be wiped out because Whites with some college hate him. Hardly any working class Democrats support him. Yes, working class Whites support him, but those people have been backing Republicans for a long time.

At least as of right now, he can’t win. She has 347 electoral votes. Total blowout. The election is over and it hasn’t even started yet.

Nate Silver puts Trump’s chance at winning at 2%. I would say that is optimistic.

Look at who the bookies are betting for. These people are willing to lay down their money to bet who wins. If Hillary wins, you will get a 33% return on your money. If Trump wins, you will get 150% return. The betters are favoring Hillary by a large margin.

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Swing State Election Forecast

Swing states include states like Colorado, Nevada, New Mexico, Iowa, Wisconsin, Michigan, Ohio, Pennsylvania, New Hampshire, Virginia, North Carolina and Florida.

Nevada and New Mexico are Western states that were former Republican strongholds, but have gone over to Democratic in recent years. Most of this is due to more Hispanics in those states. Hillary will win both states.

Colorado is a bit more red, but it is also getting more Democratic. Colorado was former hard conservative Western state, but it’s changed. This is also due in large part to a growing Hispanic population. This state is very much up in the air, and Trump is leading at the moment. It will be a challenge for Hillary to win here, and Trump may well win Colorado. The percentage of gun nuts in this Wild West state is very high.

Iowa has also been trending Democratic. Reasons are not known. Hillary will probably win, but it may be quite close.

Wisconsin has been trending heavily Democratic for some time now. Hillary will win this state handily. Hillary is not even spending one nickel on ads here now because she knows it is in the bag.

Michigan has also been getting more more Democratic lately, and Hillary will win here easily. Hillary is not buying any ads here either.

Ohio is very much up in the air. This is another state that has been trending Democratic lately. Hillary has been ahead in the polls by 4-5 points though. This state could probably go either way.

Pennsylvania has not voted for a Republican in nearly 30 years. Polls show a close race, but Hillary is not spending one nickel on ads here yet. Hillary’s campaign says their internals show a much better race for Hillary. Apparently Hillary thinks she has it in the bag. Pennsylvania as a whole has been getting more Republican if you go county by county, especially in the east and center of the state. However these rural counties are not heavily populated.

The problem with Pennsylvania for Republicans is Pittsburgh and especially Philadelphia. Most of the state’s population lives in these large urban centers that are heavily minority. Philly in particular has a huge Black population. The Democratic votes in the cities should easily outweigh the rural red counties. Hillary should win Pennsylvania.

New Hampshire was long famous for being a conservative state, but it has been voting Democratic in recent years also. Hillary will easily win this state.

Virginia is very much a swing state. This was long a conservative Republican stronghold, the capital of the Confederacy. However, many Northerners have been moving down there in recent years, changing the state. This is very nearly a blue or Democratic state now. It’s incredible. Hillary will most probably win Virginia, but it will be close.

North Carolina is very much up in the air. This state was a conservative red state for a very long time. However, it is now moving towards the Democratic Party, but it is not all the way there yet. This is because many young hipsters have been moving down there for the good jobs to be had in the region, especially in the Research Triangle, where many high tech firms have moved.

It seems hard to believe that the state of Jesse Helms is now moving Democratic. The state is now flip-flopping back and forth between voting for Democrats and voting for Republicans. The state government is still very conservative. This was where the famous transgender bathroom bill was passed recently. This will be a very close race, and it could easily go either way.

Florida is the ultimate swing state and has been flipping back and forth between Democratic and Republican votes for President for the last 20 years. I have no information how the state was voting before then. If anyone knows, please tell me.

Northern Florida is like the US South and is very conservative. The center of the state is very mixed, and the south is also also a very mixed bag.

Many Jews from the Northeast have been moving down to Southern Florida to retire. These people vote Democrat. The state also has a very large Black population, especially in the northern part of the state. South Florida is very Hispanic but these Hispanics are conservative as they are mostly Cubans. Cubans have long voted Republican, but a lot of the younger ones are voting Democrat. There are also large populations of rightwing Venezuelans and Nicaraguans living here who fled leftwing regimes. However, there are also many Haitians here, and they vote Democrat. There are many Puerto Ricans in the center of the state, especially around Orlando. They vote Democratic.

This state will be incredibly close as it has been since at least 2000. The state government is run by Republicans, and there are major voter suppression efforts underway. Florida is completely up in the air and could go either way.

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The Significance of the Grizzly Bears in America Post

Here is why the Grizzly Bears in America post is significant.

First, an overview of the piece.

The Alaska and Canada populations are simply passed over with little comment as I focused on the bears in the Lower 48.

The main groups in Montana are listed – the Cabinet-Yaak, the Northern Continental Divide and the Selkirks. I believe the Selway-Bitteroot is a budding population also. They are moving out of the Cabinet-Yaak and the Selkirks west towards the Idaho border. They are now quite common in places said to be beyond their range.

The population in Idaho is the Selkirks, and it ranges into Washington also. There is a small population in the Washington Cascades. There may be 40 bears in Cabinet-Yaak, 70 in the Selkirks and 10-20 in the Cascades.

The Greater Yellowstone population may be as high as 700-1,000. The Northern Continental Divide population is definitely 1,000.

Mostly I talk about bears that are wandering outside of their mapped zones. The Northern Continental Divide population is expanding far out to the prairies to near Great Falls. It is also expanding to the south, and I believe it is now close to linking up with the Yellowstone population near Butte. It is hard to prove that the populations are linked, but they are either linked or they are very close to being linked.

The Greater Yellowstone population is expanding to the north, west, east and south. I carefully document how far the bears have gone in each direction.

Incredibly it seems that the Greater Yellowstone population is extending down the Bear River Range into Utah. There is a good sighting in Evanston, Wyoming, and a bear was killed on Highway 80 in Utah in the early 1980’s, but it was covered up by officials. However, witnesses saw the bear. There are now four sightings in the Bear River Range in Utah.

In addition, there was an excellent sighting of a bear recently in the area where Utah, Colorado and Wyoming all come together near Flaming Gorge. I have no idea how that bear got there, but maybe they are following the Green River south. This is also very close to the Uintas. They have even been spotted in the Book Cliffs of Utah.

To the east, they now extend all the way to the full length of the Wind River Range, however, they do not seem to be moving beyond the range. To the south is the Red Desert, and that will be hard to cross. To the north, they have made it to the Owl Creek Mountains and the Gooseberry Creek area. Further north, they are now seen around Cody to Putnam. They are definitely on the west side of the Bighorn Basin.

It is now known that the occupy the entire Wyoming Range and there are even populations at La Barge Creek and Little Piney Creek at the far south end of the range. They are in the Salt Rivers and they have made it as far south as the Caribous in Idaho.

The Yellowstone population is obviously at capacity and it is known that they are expanding in all directions.

Young male bears can wander pretty far to establish a range is what I have heard.

Colorado: There is quite a long section on sightings in Colorado. I believe a small population of 10-20 bears still lives there. Most of the sightings are in the San Juans and Sangre de Cristos, but there are also a number to the northwest near the Black Canyon of the Gunnison and north to Crawford which I believe are valid sightings.

To the northeast, there have been a couple of good sightings around Pikes Peak. There has been a sighting or two around Independence Pass in Aspen and one near Rocky Mountain National Park. I am not sure if those sightings are good.

However, to the north on the Routt National Forest and near Bull Mountain near Red Feather Lakes in the Medicine Bow Mountains there are definitely some good sightings. The sightings cluster right near the Wyoming border.

This population is quite curious. How did they get up on the Routt? Via the Medicine Bows? Maybe, but I am not aware of any sightings in Wyoming’s Medicine Bows. They could have moved from the Wind Rivers to the Medicine Bows by crossing several mountain ranges to the southeast, but I am not aware of any sightings there. It’s a mystery.

There is also one sighting in New Mexico right across the border from Colorado in the San Juans. It’s entirely feasible that the Colorado San Juan bears could move into Northern New Mexico.

Mexico: Further south, there is a lot of debate about whether the Mexican Grizzly Bear is extinct or not. It was said to have gone extinct in 1964, but one was shot in 1976, and there was a sighting in 1980 by scientists. Expeditions have found evidence of Grizzly Bears in the last 35-40 years in the Sky Island Ranges. Scientists say that they may still exist in the Sierra Del Nidos in Chihuahua and maybe even further south in Sonora.

Ranchers in the area say that Grizzlies were still in the Sky Islands as late as 2007. The Mexican Grizzly Bear is probably still extant.

Objections to the piece:

There probably are no bears in Colorado. There are bears in Colorado. You remember the Ghost Grizzlies book? Remember that Grizzlies were declared extinct in Colorado in 1952, and then out of the blue, 27 years later, a bow hunter was seriously mauled by a female Grizzly 27 years after they were declared extinct! The man killed the bear, and it was proven that it was a Grizzly. Now keep in mind that that sow had given birth two times in the past. That means those cubs may well still have been alive, and there was at least one boar around also. Also in 1983, a Grizzly enthusiast released a Grizzly cub in Colorado.

In 1989 there was an excellent sighting in the headwaters of the Navajo River in the San Juans. Two wildlife biologists were in the area doing something or other, and one came running out of the woods saying he had just seen a Grizzly Bear. He had a PhD in wildlife biology, and he had done his Masters and Doctorate on the Grizzlies in Yellowstone. So he’s basically got a Master’s and Doctorate in Grizzly Bear Studies. I would say that sighting is good as gold. A lot of the other Colorado sightings were by good sources.

Also, off the record many Colorado Game and Fish wardens and biologists say that the department believes that Grizzlies still live in Colorado, but there is only a very small number of them, and they do not want to admit for a number of reasons, so it is better to just say, “No Grizzlies in Colorado.”

There are no bears in Utah. The Highway 80 sighting of a dead Grizzly killed by a car in the early 1980’s is good. A number of people saw the bear dead and were looking at it before the Fish and Game people came to take it away.

I would say that the Flaming Gorge sighting is good. The man who saw the bear ran a hunters lodge in Alaska. He had seen many Grizzly and Black bears and their hunters, and he knew the difference.

There have been four sightings in Utah in the Bear Rivers and just about zero in the rest of the state. That’s a lot of fake sightings for one range with zero fake sightings anywhere else.

La Barge Creek in the Wyoming Range is only 40 miles from the Utah border. It would not be difficult for a bear to travel that distance in mountainous territory.

There are probably only a tiny number of bears in Utah, and they may be there only some of the time. The existence of resident bears is dubious.

The Selkirk/Cabinet-Yaak population is still struggling. I found no evidence in the linked study that those populations were in trouble.

And as far as I know there are no grizzlies in the Bitterroots. In 2007, a Grizzly was shot to death in the Selway-Bitteroots in Central Idaho. Previously, the last Grizzly in the Selway-Bitteroots was a confirmed sighting in 1946. Before the bear was shot, there had been sightings of Grizzlies in the Selway-Bitteroots since the late 1990’s. The female bear that wandered 2,000 miles around Montana and Idaho crossed the Bitterroots between Thomson Falls, Montana and Burke, Idaho. There are many bears only 25-30 miles away from the Bitterroots. They are expanding out of the Cabinets. They are clearly already in the Bitterroots at least on occasion, but the number of bears there must be very small.

There have been only a very few bears in the Wind River range south for a number of years. This statement about the Wind Rivers is correct, but they are expanding their range south in recent years. One was seen at Big Sandy in recent years, and they said that is the furthest south they had seen a bear so far. It is known that there are a few bears west of Lander. Just recently a bear was spotted many times southwest of Lander, and he made it as far south as Atlantic City which is a ways to the south of Sandy Creek.

According to the Y2Y website, bears are within a 100 miles of connecting GYE to Canada. It is not true at all that bears are within 100 miles of connecting the GYE to the Northern Continental Divide group. An NCD bear was shot and killed just a few miles of Butte. To the south, there is a known population of GYE bears in the Tobacco Roots. That’s a distance of only 25 miles between NCD bears and GYE bears.

A young NCD male bear was illegally shot and killed 12 miles southeast of Anaconda in the Warm Springs Wildlife Management Area at the northern end of the Pintlers. A GYE bear was seen many times at Mount Fleecer recently. There’s only 15 miles between Mount Fleecer and the Warm Springs Bear, and that gap is in the Pintler Mountains.

Many bears were trapped at Georgetown Lake in the Flints recently. To the south, bears have been repeatedly seen in the Pintlers, including one at Seymour Lake. There’s 12 miles between Georgetown Lake and Seymour Lake. That 12 miles is straight through the Pintlers, and the terrain looks like this:

0019_1455177403_medium

It should not be hard for a Grizzly to get through that.

There’s no way those two bear populations are 100 miles apart.

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Swing State Trends 2016: RIP US Republican Party

This election, as with so many others, is going to come down to the swing states.

In the last four Presidential elections since 2000, ten states have voted for both a Democratic and a Republican candidate.

They are: Nevada, Colorado, New Mexico, Iowa, Indiana, Ohio, Florida, Virginia, North Carolina, and New Hampshire.

main-qimg-5a4a0082ca62a48ccd2f8d7f6eddc1f6

Click to enlarge. Last four Presidential elections showing trends over time.

Nevada: R2 D2. This state is going over from Republican to Democrat, and the momentum is with the Democrats. A lot of Hispanics and Californians have moved into the Las Vegas area, turning this long-term red state blue. Conservative -> liberal.

Colorado: R2 D2. One more long-term Republican state going Democrat. Same as Nevada. This state is going Democratic. Many people are moving to the Denver area from all over the country, and the city is getting a reputation as a hip place to live. Also many Hispanics are moving here. Conservative -> liberal.

New Mexico: D3 R1. This state is going over to the Democrats in a major way. Not sure what is happening except maybe that a lot of the Hispanics who live there are starting to vote more. Otherwise it’s a mystery. Many Hispanics have always lived in this state, but it was still a conservative state. Strange. Conservative -> liberal.

Iowa: D3 R1. Headed over to the Democrats. I am thinking this state is lost to Republicans. This state is going Democratic in a big way, but I really do not understand why. Conservative -> liberal.

Indiana: R3 D1. Long-term Republican state starting to waver a bit. I think this state will stay Republican for now though. Conservative.

Ohio: R2 D2. Another Republican state going Democratic. Not sure why that is, but Rust Belt states in general are becoming impoverished, and whatever is left of the White working class there is voting Democrat. There is some very ugly voter suppression going on here, verging on crime. Conservative -> liberal.

Florida: R2 D2. Swing state teetering back and forth between Republicans and Democrats. Doesn’t lean one way or the other at the moment. In other words, it is up for grabs. Heavy duty voter suppression going on here. I do not know the history of this state, so I cannot tell you if it is Democrat going Republican or vice versa. I am also not sure of demographic trends. No trend, evenly divided.

Virginia: R2 D2. Very long-term Republican state going Democratic. Briefly the state is becoming less conservative. This was always a conservative White Southern cracker state just like the rest of them. There are many Blacks but not enough to swing elections, which is the typical case in the South. However, in recent years, a large number of tech firms have moved into Virginia. The workers who have moved here to work in this industry are coming from the North and are young, hip, moneyed middle and upper middle class White SWPL types who were Democrats in their previous state and continue to vote Democrat after moving to Virginia. Conservative -> liberal.

North Carolina: R3 D1. Appears to be slowly moving from Republican to Democrat, but the transition is just starting, so it is still mostly voting Democrat. Similar demographic trend to Virginia of young SWPL types moving into North Carolina for good jobs, in this case in the Research Triangle in the center of the state. But the longterm trend in this state looks bad for Republicans. Conservative, teetering.

New Hampshire: D3 R1. Very longterm Republican and conservative state is now apparently lost to Republicans for the forseeable future. The long-standing notion that New Hampshire is a conservative state needs to be re-evaluated. I do not know what happened here except that New Hampshire has apparently joined the rest of the Northeast and has turned into a normal Northeastern state. Conservative -> liberal.

Conclusion: As you can see, all ten swing states are either static, teetering Republican or heading from Republican to Democrat. There is not one single state that is teetering Democrat. Nor is there a single state anywhere in the US that is going from Democrat to Republican. The future looks nightmarish for Republicans, but their response to this is to go more and more rightwing, going against the trend in the nation.

70% of the swing states are becoming more liberal over time, and one Republican state is teetering towards becoming more liberal. One state is still Republican, but things are getting a bit shaky. Another state is completely up for grabs and does not appear to be trending either liberal or conservative. So it looks like the country as a whole is becoming more liberal over time. The Republican response to a nation becoming more liberal over time is to pivot hard to the Right. Lemmings, anyone?

Bottom line: Elephants are going extinct.

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Repost: An Overview of Grizzly Bears in the US and Canada

I will repost this again, as I just did a lot more work on it.

Click to enlarge. See how the Grizzly Bear range has receded in the modern era.

At the moment, Grizzly Bears exist in Montana, Idaho, Washington and Wyoming in the contiguous US. One was recently photographed in the northern Cascades in Washington in an amazing photograph.

They are very common in Canada and Alaska. A man in Alberta told me that Grizzlies are so common up there that they are very nearly regarded as pests. However, the Alberta government has listed the population of 700 bears as threatened.

British Columbia has a huge population of over 16,000 bears. This number is down considerably from the 25,000 bears present at contact. There are 25,000 grizzlies total in Canada in British Columbia, Alberta, the Yukon, the Northwest Territories, Nunavut, and the northern part of Manitoba.

In 2007, a Grizzly was shot to death in the Selway-Bitteroots in Central Idaho. Previously, the last Grizzly in the Selway-Bitteroots was a confirmed sighting in 1946. There had been sightings of Grizzlies in the Selway-Bitteroots since the late 1990’s.

Endangered Species Act protection has been removed from the bears in the Yellowstone region, but a lawsuit by conservationists caused a judge to reinstate protections. This subgroup has a population of 700-1,000. In the Northern Continental Divide in Montana, a similar-sized population of 1,000 bears exists. The Northern Rockies and Greater Yellowstone populations are considered to be at capacity.

There are 40 bears in the Cabinet-Yaak population in Montana.

There are 75 bears in the Selkirks in Idaho and Washington. The North Cascades population in Washington is estimated at only 10-20 bears, but other estimates put it as high as 50 bears.

In recent years, Grizzlies from the Northern Continental Divide group have expanded to the east in Montana out into the prairie all the way to Loma where the Teton, Marias and Missouri Rivers merge, 100 miles east of the mountains. To the north, they have expanded to the east all the way to the Tiber Dam on the Marias River near the Canadian border 65 miles east of the mountains. There is now a population of 60-80 bears living on the prairie just to the east of the mountains. To the south, there have been many Grizzly sightings in the Big Belt Mountains, and was a single sighting in the Little Belt Mountains east of Helena and south of Great Falls.

The Northern Continental Divide group is also expanding to the south in Montana to the Anaconda Range, Rock Creek and the Clark Fork south of I-90, the Sapphire, John Long, Nevada and the Elkhorn Mountains between Helena and Boulder down through the Boulder Mountains in the McDonald-Rodgers and Champion-Thunderbolt areas. Grizzlies have been confirmed in the Nevadas, Elkhorns and Boulders.

In addition, there are sightings around Lincoln, Basin and Rimini in this area and a bear was killed by car in Lincoln in 2007. Lincoln is in the Nevadas, Rimini is in the Elkhorns, and Basin is in the Boulders. The Boulders population has been confirmed above Basin. Tracks were seen by bowhunters on Thunderbolt Mountain around 2010. In addition, there have been many sightings in the Bernice area from 2012-2014.

The McDonald Rogers Area is bounded by McDonald Pass west of Helena on the south and Rogers Pass west of Wolf Creek on the north. Two bears have been killed in recent years in the Champion-Thunderbolt. Champion refers to the area bounded by Champion Pass and Thunderbolt Mountain in the Boulders west of Basin south through the Boulders, Bull and Dry Mountains through Elk Park all the way to the Tobacco Root and Highland Mountains.

The core Greater Yellowstone population has been expanding recently in Wyoming east to the Absaroka and Beartooth Ranges, the west side of the Bighorn Basin, the Greybull River, the Shoshone River between Cody and Powell, and south to the Gros Ventre Range, the Owl Creek Mountains, the entire Wind River Range all the way down to Atlantic City, Wind River Valley and Wind River Basin to south of Lander, the Wyoming and Snake River Ranges, the Greys River, the Green River Valley and all the way down to north of Evanston on the Utah border. So far, two collared bears have made it south of I-80 west of the Green River.

In Montana, the Greater Yellowstone group is expanding to the north and east to the Absarokas, the Beartooths, all the way to the Pryor Mountains and to the north and west to the Madison, Gravelly, Greenhorn, Snowcrest, and Blacktail Ranges and the East Pioneer, Tobacco Root, Highland and Pintler Mountains. A bear was killed recently in the Highlands, and bears have been occasionally documented in the Pintlers. A clawed tree with grizzly bear hair on it was seen in 2010 in the Highlands.

In 2013, a bear was repeatedly seen on Fleecer Mountain southwest of Butte. There have been a few bears sighted southwest of Philipsburg in the southern end of the Flint Range. In the northern part of the Flint Range, Fish and Wildlife trapped a bear in Deer Lodge that was raiding beehives.

Montana Fish and Game has repeatedly trapped bears around Georgetown Lake in the southwestern part of the Flint Range. In 2013, a Grizzly was seen at Seymour Lake in the Pintlers. It is only 12 miles from Seymour Lake to Georgetown Lake. This is the gap in the Grizzly range in this area from the southwestern end of the Flints to the northern end of the Pintlers.

In addition, in 2005, a young Grizzly bear was found shot to death with an arrow in Cabbage Gulch in the Mount Haggin Wildlife Management Area in northern end of the Pintlers. This bear was proven to be from the Northern Continental Divide group. There has been no testing of bears further to the south in the Pintlers, Highlands, Mount Fleecer or Tobacco Roots to determine which group they are a part of.

Between McDonald Pass and the Pintlers is 35 miles of the Boulders and between the pass and the Tobacco Roots and the Boulder and Jefferson Valleys is 50 miles of the Boulder, Dry and Bull Mountains. In order the breach this gap, the bears would need to occupy all of the Boulder and Bull and Dry Mountains, and they would also have to make it through the Jefferson and Boulder Valleys.

In June 2010, a Grizzly was shot by a landowner at the south end of Elk Park Valley when he found it in the duck pen outside his home, so they have already made it to the Elk Park Valley. The Elk Park Valley is a high mostly treeless plain like Sierra Valley in California at 6,000 feet. It consists of three towns – Elk Park, Trask and Woodville. The southern end of Elk Park from Trask to Woodville is from only 4-10 miles northeast of Butte, so this report means that Grizzlies are now only 4-10 miles from Butte itself. It is not known if Grizzlies are present in the Bull or Dry Mountains.

So the present distributional gap between the two populations from the south end of Elk Park Valley to the Highland Mountains is the Jefferson Valley, about a 14-21 mile gap. The valleys are full of ranches, and getting through them would would not be easy.

If this gap can be breached, the Greater Yellowstone group will be able to link up with the Northern Continental Divide group to form one huge megapopulation from the Wind Rivers in Wyoming west to the Caribou Mountains in Idaho all the way north in Montana to the Canadian border and 100 miles east into the prairie. However, there does not seem to be any evidence of gene flow between the two groups now.

The Greater Yellowstone group is also expanding to the west into Eastern Idaho to Island Park just west of Yellowstone in the Centennial Range south to Chester and all the way west I-90, 60 west into Idaho and even further south to the Caribou Mountains east of the Snake Rivers.

There are 32,850 Grizzly Bears in the US in total, but 95% of them are in Alaska. Therefore, Alaska has a population of ~31,000 bears, and there are 1,850 bears in the rest of the US.

The Grizzly Bear formerly ranged through the Western and Southwestern US.

There are ongoing sightings of Grizzly Bears in Colorado, especially in the Southern Rockies near the New Mexico border in the San Juan Range. If it exists, the population may be small (10-20 bears) and inbred.

The last confirmed sighting of a Grizzly in Colorado was in 1979 when a hunter was mauled by a female bear in the San Juans. He shot and killed the bear though so biologists were able to study it. Prior to that, the last known Grizzly Bear in Colorado was killed in 1952, and it was assumed that bears were extirpated from the state. Autopsy revealed that the dead sow in 1979 had already given birth to two litters in the past, so her cubs were probably still roaming around, and there had to have been at lest one boar in the area to impregnate her.

A Grizzly was photographed at an unknown date in the Wet Mountains between Westcliffe and Beulah, Colorado in the Sangre de Cristo Mountains. A family saw a Grizzly Bear at an unknown date near Walsenberg, Colorado in the Sangre de Cristos.

A man and his wife saw a huge male Grizzly weighing 1,000 pounds in the Cimarron Mountains in the San Juans at an unknown date. Ten minutes later, a ranch hand from the ranch next door stopped by to warn them that there was a Grizzly Bear in the area.

Two hunters saw a large Grizzly Bear weighing 600 pounds and standing seven feet tall on an unknown date near Shelf Road between Canon City and Cripple Creek, Colorado in the Pike’s Peak Country of the Southern Front Range.

A Grizzly Bear was photographed at an unknown date west of Weston, Colorado in the Sangre de Cristos. The photos was shown to Game and Fish personnel who would neither confirm nor deny that it was a Grizzly. Off the record, the game warden said there are still a few Grizzlies in the area, but the department’s official position is to deny that they exist, as 1) They do not want an endangered species in the area putting land restrictions in; 2) They do not want local ranchers getting up in arms over the Grizzlies and demanding to kill them; 3) They do not want to deal with hunters demanding to shoot them and 4) They do not want to have to draw up an expensive management plan for them.

Two fishermen saw a grizzly bear and tracks near Garfield Lake near Silverton, Colorado in the San Juans in Fall 1982. In Late Spring 1982, Grizzly tracks were seen in the Weminuche Wilderness between Pagosa Springs and Creede, Colorado in the San Juans.

There was a confirmed sighting by a PhD biologist in the headwaters of the Navajo River near Pagosa Springs, Colorado in the San Juans in 1989.

A female Grizzly was seen on the eastern side of the San Juans a few miles from the New Mexico border in the early 1990’s. A Grizzly Bear was sighted in La Manga Pass in the San Juans in 1995.

In the mid-1990’s, three hunters saw a Grizzly Bear den on Bull Mountain in Larimer County near Red Feather Lakes in North Central Colorado in the Medicine Bow Mountains seven miles south of Wyoming border. Two years later, hunters returned to the same den and found a Grizzly Bear’s head nailed to a tree outside the den. It had apparently been killed by someone. Between 1996-2005, possible Grizzly scat was seen on the same mountain by a man researching Grizzly Bears.

In 1997, a female Grizzly Bear with two cubs was seen in La Manga Pass. There was another sighting near this pass close to Manassa, Colorado in the San Juans in 2003, and a female was seen in the same area 2000. That is only seven miles north of the New Mexico border.

A Grizzly was seen near Creede 2005. Another Grizzly was seen in the same area 2006-2009. A female Grizzly Bear with cubs was sighted in Late September 2006 near Independence Pass east of Aspen, Colorado in the Sawatch Range. In 2007, hunters said they saw a Grizzly Bear near Aspen. The same year, a possible female Grizzly with two cubs was seen in the high country in Red Wing, Colorado in the Sangre de Cristos.

In addition, tracks were seen at 10,000 feet in the Routt National Forest in Colorado just south of the Wyoming border in 2010. This area is to the west of Crowdrey, Colorado. Hunters in the area may see Grizzlies with some regularity. The nearest reported Grizzly location from there is 220 miles to the west near the Green River in far northeastern Utah where Utah, Wyoming and Colorado all come together.

On July 31, 2010, two men saw a Grizzly Bear at 12,000 feet on Little Cimarron Road near the Big Cimarron River three miles southeast of Cimarron, Colorado. They saw Grizzly tracks at Silverjack Reservoir where the Big Cimarron River comes into the reservoir. Cimarron is just south of the Black Canyon of the Gunnison River.

On June 10, 2012, three men riding the COG to the top of Pikes Peak in the Southern Front Range saw a Grizzly Bear. In Fall 2013, a Grizzly was seen near Crawford, Colorado pursuing a gut shot elk. Crawford is between the West Elk Mountains and the Grand Mesa. In Fall 2014, Grizzly tracks were seen above Masonville, Colorado near Rocky Mountain National Park at the northern end of the Front Range.

A Grizzly Bear walked through a yard in Indian Creek near Lake City, Colorado in the San Juans in the June 2015. The same month, two Grizzly Bears were seen in the San Juans above Pagosa Springs on a single day. One weighed 800 pounds. Later the same month, on June 28, a large Grizzly Bear was spotted 50 yards off the highway in the pass coming into Cimarron. The motorists watched it for 15 minutes before it retreated up the slope.

A Grizzly Bear was killed on I-80 in Utah in the early 80’s, though this was never acknowledged by wildlife officials. Tracks have been seen recently in the Book Cliffs of Eastern Utah. The Book Cliffs or Roan Cliffs extend from Grand Junction, Colorado northwest to Price and Helper, Utah, so the tracks were seen somewhere in the Utah portion of this area, the center of which is 50 miles northwest of Green River.

There have been four sightings of Grizzly Bears in the Bear River Mountains in Far Northern Utah. This range extends into Far Southwestern Idaho, which is not far from known Grizzly populations in the Caribous. Wolves have already been verified a bit to the west of the Bear Rivers, and a wolverine was recently photographed by Utah wildlife officials in Summer 2014.. In Summer 2013 a Grizzly Bear was sighted in Utah near Flaming Gorge National Recreation Area in the Three Corners Area where Colorado, Wyoming and Utah all come together.

Grizzly Bears may also exist right across the Colorado border in New Mexico. In the late 1980’s, a Grizzly Bear cub was seen just across the Colorado border west of Chama, New Mexico.

A subspecies of Grizzly Bear, the California Golden Bear, was hunted to extinction. The last bear was shot in Tulare County in 1922.

Another subspecies, the Mexican Grizzly Bear, is said to be extinct, as it has not been seen for some time. By 1960, there were only 30 bears left, and only four years later in 1964, it was regarded as extinct. Rumors continued of bears seen in the Yaqui Headwaters Region.

In 1969, a naturalist organized an expedition there with no success. A recent journal article examined a skull of a juvenile bear shot in Arroyo del Oso in Sonora, Mexico in 1976 and determined that the skull was that of a Mexican Grizzly Bear. A joint-US expedition to Mexico in 1980 found tracks, other Grizzly Bear sign and one sighting of what the experts determined was a Grizzly Bear.  Doug Peacock documented a Grizzly in a sky island range in Chihuahua in 1985.

31 years later, it is not known if Grizzlies persist in Mexico. Residents of the region say that bears matching the description of Mexican Grizzly Bears continued to exist in the foothills of the sky islands of Sonora and the rest of the bear’s former range as of 2007. Mammalogists feel that they continue to exist in the Sierra del Nido in Chihuahua at the very least, and they may persist in Sonora also.

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Wolverine Photographed in Minnesota?

Possible wolverine photographed in Minnesota?

Possible wolverine photographed in Minnesota?

I recently received a missive telling me that someone had captured a possible wolverine on a trailcam in Minnesota. I had him send me the photo and he said it to me right away along with a story about how it came about:

Attached is the photo of a wolverine on my 40 acres of hunting land in Douglas County, Minnesota. This would be about 10 miles South East of Miltona, MN and 7 miles Northeast of Carlos, MN. I had three photos…Nose, tail and this one. I deleted the other two before I realized what this might be.

This creature turned my camera downward pointing at the ground after this photo. The camera was mounted about 3 1/2 feet up on a portable camera mount that is staked into the ground. It has a RAM style ball and socket mount and he was able to turn it down at the socket.

Based on your post from Tom Akenson and a friend that saw one in his back yard in 2004, there appear to have been at least three sightings in the area over the last ten years. This is farm and lake country on the south end of the North Woods. There are some large public hunting lands and river and creek valleys nearby that are somewhat desolate and could hold unseen creatures.

The animal is in the lower right corner of the photo.

He sent this to me because I had written a series of articles on wolverines in the US. There have been a number of sightings in the Upper Midwest in recent years, but only one confirmed wolverine and that one was in the thumb of Michigan. It was photographed more than once and it recently died. Its carcass was found after it died. That wolverine was the first wolverine in Michigan in almost 200 years and the first in the Upper Midwest in a very long time also.

Wolverines formerly ranged all through the Upper Midwest, but they were eliminated from there as they were eliminated from most of the Lower 48 states. Only a few now survive in Washington, Idaho, Montana and Wyoming. One was recently photographed in Colorado. Another was recently photographed in California, the first wolverine known in the state since the early 1920’s. That wolverine still resides here. He runs about north of Lake Tahoe on the Tahoe National Forest. He is currently in search of a mate, but he is unlikely to have found one as he may be the only wolverine in California.

Wolverines have been sighted in recent years in Oregon, Utah, New Mexico, North Dakota, South Dakota, Nebraska, Iowa, Michigan, and Wisconsin. The Oregon sightings were by wildlife biologists.

This photo is not very clear, but if it can be proven that this is a wolverine, it will be the first confirmed wolverine in Minnesota in many years.

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“Racism Is a Thing of the Past”

Well, if Republicans says it, it must be true, right. Welcome to post-racial America, where no one sees color anymore.

NAACP office bombed in Colorado.

Reality check.

I guess it adds up though. Colorado Springs is like White Nationalist Central. It’s also full of Protestant fundamentalist religious kooks. Coincidence

 

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Grand Canyon Wolf Gunned Down

From the Center for Biological Diversity. I am acquainted with a few of these people, including the director, Kieran. I have worked with them a bit on a few things here and there. I love what they do. Theirs is one of the most effective, kickass environmental groups out there.

Background: A wolf from Wyoming left the state, apparently wandered all the way through Utah down to the Grand Canyon in Arizona where it was photographed and caused quite a sensation. Wolves used to inhabit this region, but they have not been seen in many years. Further, wolves are rare to absent in Utah. It seems to have left the Grand Canyon and wandered again 150 miles north of the Grand Canyon to Beaver, Utah, where it was shot and killed. Utah apparently has no laws protecting wolves and in fact, encourages and even promotes killing them, although few if any wolves reside in the state.

The US Fish and Wildlife Service has idiotically taken wolves off the Endangered Species list even though they are very much in trouble in a number of states. The feds turned wolf management over to the states. Most every state that has wolves has then embarked on a wild wolf-massacring campaign. These campaigns have occurred in Montana, Idaho and Wyoming in the West and in the Great Lakes area of Michigan, Wisconsin and Minnesota.

A federal judge has recently halted the Great Lakes states’ wolf slaughter “management.” There really is not any management going on at all in most of these states. Instead all there is is wild, unrelenting wolf slaughter. It is unknown what effect this massacring will have on wolf populations, but it is conceivable that at some point, they may reduce the population so low that it may need to go back on the Endangered Species list again.

Certainly wolves need to be fully protected in places like Washington, Oregon, California, Utah, Arizona, Colorado and Iowa. Wolves are being killed in Washington, Colorado, Iowa and Utah where population numbers are very low.

It’s what we feared the most. Echo, the wandering wolf who became a worldwide sensation after showing up at the Grand Canyon this fall, has likely been gunned down in Utah.

Here’s what we know: State wildlife officials have confirmed that a 3-year-old female wolf with a collar from Wyoming was shot Sunday night by a hunter outside Beaver, Utah – about 150 miles north of the Grand Canyon. Echo is the only Northern Rockies gray wolf that has been confirmed this far south, and DNA evidence will most likely show that she’s the victim.

Once again we have to mourn a dead wolf. Once again we see this same horrific pattern. It’s normal for younger wolves to leave their pack and set off looking for a new mate and new territory. But again and again – in Colorado and Iowa, in Washington and now Utah – these wolves have been gunned down in horrific cases of malice and mistaken identity.

Smart as they are, wolves don’t read border signs, and they can’t tell an ignorant human with a rifle that they aren’t coyotes. The result is another dead wolf to add to the 640-plus already killed this year by guns, traps and poisons.

The wolf haters, no doubt, are delighted with the latest killing and are determined to keep this bloody campaign going. They have influential friends like Utah’s own Congressman Rob Bishop, the powerful new head of the House Natural Resources Committee, who has vowed to end protection for wolves from coast to coast — making what happened near Beaver neither illegal nor rare. The government of Utah has even spent $800,000 on lobbyists to strip protection from wolves so they can be freely killed in the state. They don’t want to learn to live peacefully with wolves. They want to destroy them.

Sadly there will only be one Echo, the first wolf to hear her howls ring through the Grand Canyon in more than 70 years. If she has indeed been gunned down, we won’t forget her. All wolves deserve to the chance to to roam freely and survive.

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Mountain Lion Kills a Deer in Colorado

Absolutely incredible footage. The deer starts across the road, and immediately the mountain lion is on top of it, jaws into its neck. They tussle about for a bit and finally the cougar wins. The cougar tries to drag its prey out of the road and finally takes off as the humans drive by in the car. Somehow all of this is amazingly captured on cellphone cam.

Wow!

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Bigfoot News February 23, 2013

World exclusive – Justin Smeja of Sierra Kills fame releases a video at midnight detailing how Dr. Melba Ketchum told him to contaminate his Bigfoot steak sample from the Kills! She did so for unknown reasons, most probably so that other researchers would not use it and scoop her on the Bigfoot DNA story. It was a sleazy thing to do, but I think judging from the circumstances, Melba may have been right to make this morally dubious request. I detailed my reasons for that in the last post. Anyway, this is a blockbuster!

The story and video is on the Sierra Site Project website here.

The Men In Black (MIB’s) may be after Rick Dyer’s Bigfoot! Texas authorities have notified Las Vegas police about possible criminal or Parks and Wildlife violations involved in the events surrounding whatever Dyer did near San Antonio, Texas in September 2012. What all of this means, I have no idea. The people promoting the idea have sources on the SWAT team in Las Vegas and they say that Dyer is hoaxing. If Dyer is hoaxing, why is LE going after him. I hope the MIB’s don’t confiscate the Bigfoot, if it exists!

Two shots hit Dyer’s Bigfoot. It now turns that Dyer fired on the Bigfoot two times, once hitting it in the back and the other time hitting it in the back of the head.

Michael Merchant is doing some great Bigfoot breakdowns lately! I don’t really like his podcasts too much, as he tears apart everything and everyone, but his breakdowns have a whole different attitude about them. Michael is very bright and very funny when he is good.

Michael Merchant breaks down Adirondacks Bigfoot.

This video has never made any sense to me. A friend of mine insisted it was a hoax, and the general view is that it is a hoax. However, this is one of the weirdest hoaxes I have ever seen, if it is a hoax. Look at the huge head! Combined with the small size. It could very well be a juvenile Bigfoot as they have gigantic heads.

Also the ears look exactly like Bigfoot ears, a nice touch that hoaxers almost never get right. It is bending its head back in a very bizarre way, but why would a hoaxer do that. And it goes down on all fours. Why? When do hoaxers ever go on all fours like that. It does look like a gorilla! Very much like a gorilla. All I have to say is that this is one of the weirdest Bigfoot videos I have ever seen!

Michael Merchant breaks down Nassau Bigfoot.

I really do think that this is a Bigfoot, and it is definitely going on all fours.

Michael Merchant breaks down San Juans Bigfoot.

This video is very strange and I cannot make any sense out of it. Whether it is a hoax or whether it is a real Bigfoot, I have no idea. The general view is it is a hoax, but that could be incorrect.

Dr. Melba Ketchum told Justin Smeja that the Bigfoot steak from the Sierra Kills would probably test as “bear” if he sent it out somewhere else! Turns out that Justin et al did send it out elsewhere, and it did test as “bear” from two separate labs. What kind of sense does that make? It makes no sense at all! I am as confused as anyone about this.

Ketchum is not hoaxing. One theory is that Ketchum has nothing but samples from known animals and that she has manipulated or misinterpreted those samples in some way as part of a gigantic scientific hoax. The problem is that that is scientific misconduct for sure if she did that. She would also be sued to Kingdom Come and she could be prosecuted by an enterprising DA for criminal fraud.

Ketchum is a rather shady person for sure (but many of the pillars of our society in business, entertainment and government are shady or worse), but she is not hoaxing. I do not believe that she is capable of scientific misconduct. She doesn’t have it in her, she doesn’t want to be sued and for sure she doesn’t want to go to jail or prison.

As far as ethical challenges, many of the greatest men and women in history had some rather remarkable ethical lapses, yet we still consider them great. Let God sort em out!

Another way we know she is not hoaxing is because I know that Adrian Erickson is not hoaxing. Erickson and his team definitely have samples from real Bigfoots. That’s for sure. If Erickson’s samples are real, then Melba’s samples are real. In addition, for sure Derek Randles and his team is not hoaxing, nor is Larry Jenkins, Mitch Waite, Alex Hearn, Stan Courtney, Larry Surface, Henner Fahrenbach, Rob Alley or JC Johnson. As far as the rest of the submitters, I doubt if most of them are hoaxers, but I don’t know them, so they might possibly be. We always have consider all hypotheses in science.

Critique of Ketchum’s DNA study. Via Tyler Huggins on Bigfoot Forums, who sent the study to a PhD friend of his:

Huggins: I have another, and seemingly final update from my PhD contact who would prefer not to post here:

PhD: “What my analysis says is that the bear sequences are real bear and not just primate sequences that are homologous to bear. That means that a bear was involved. This is consistent with your and Bart’s reports. It also points to the fact that it’s inclusion in the publication was inappropriate, because it adds more confusion than clarity.

I think this is gonna be it for me on this sample. It’s fairly tedious work. It’s pointing to an artifactual mosaic due to the combining of human and bear sequences along with poor quality control of the output. Here is something that you can post:
______________________________________
Further analysis of the sequence associated with Sample 26 indicates that it is 2.7 million nucleotides in length., which is only about 0.1% of the human genome. It tracks from beginning to end with sequences associated with Chromosome 11. Chromosome 11 is 134 million nucleotides in length. So, this would correspond to roughly 0.2% of the content of Chromosome 11.

There are segments that identify with very high significance to Ursid (bear) sequences. One major limitation related to the analysis is that Genbank is fairly limited in Ursid sequences. Most of the Ursid sequences identify with Panda, but Panda is fairly well represented in Genbank compared to black bear and other bears. The Ursid sequences appear to be mainly from coding regions, rather than structural regions.

It is really impossible to compare the Chromosome 11 structural sequences (non-coding) to similar sequences for bears. So, it is possible that there are bear non-coding sequences, as well. This makes it very hard to decipher what might be going on in terms of the source of the sample vs. the contaminant.

So, are the bear sequences real bear or are they primate sequences that identify closely with bear. A distance tree analysis in BLAST using several sequences that identified as phosphatidylserine synthase-2 like coding regions indicates that the Sample 26 version aligns most closely with Ursid sequence (Panda). A primate cluster (human, gorilla, baboon, chimp, rhesus monkey) are highly homologous but more distantly related. Additional sequences from dog, mouse and galigo (Otolemur) were included as outliers and branch further away as might be expected.

So, the upshot here is that the 2.7 million nucleotide data set for Sample 26 is highly flawed, and, therefore, would be nearly impossible to use to determine whether a non-human primate contributed DNA to the sample.”

Ok, based on that, my reading is that Ketchum’s analysis of the Bigfoot DNA from the Sierra steak makes no sense at all. I do not know what that means. It either means that Bigfoot DNA itself makes no sense or that there was something wrong with her analysis.

Craziest Bigfooters of all vindicated by Ketchum DNA study. Via this fascinating webpage of Ketchum’s very unprofessional website (my browsers warned about possible phishing sites due to improper certificates) we see a list of all of the successful submitters to the study. Many are rather unremarkable, but some do stand out.

For instance, Igor Burtsev, widely derided as a kook and quite possibly a hoaxer (he seems to have hoaxed a Bigfoot tour for Dr. Jeff Meldrum in the Kuzbass) nevertheless has 6 successful samples in the study, including one from Russia! 3 of the samples come from Tennessee (Apparently from the Carter Farm!), one from Michigan (Via Robin Lynne’s habituation site no doubt!) and one is from Russia (Which means that Ketchum’s study proves that Yetis are real!)

The Carter Farm is the site of Janice Carter’s story detailed in Mary Green’s book 50 Years with Bigfoot that details Janice’s growing up and living with the Bigfoots on her family farm in Tennessee over the course of a lifetime. It is widely derided as utterly ridiculous, in particular the parts about Fox the Bigfoot, and Janice has been proven to be a hoaxer, at least in part. In one scene, Fox comes to Janice’s door to ask for some garlic, which she gives him!

Janice herself has 7 successful samples in to Ketchum’s study and Melba’s page states that one of the samples was form the late Fox (Fox died in 2010) himself! How she figured that out, I have no idea. Yet the Ketchum study appears to prove that the Bigfoots at the Carter Farm, including the incredible Fox himself, were real, and hence Janice’s story, at least in part, is a true story! Holy Sasquatch!

In addition, Robin Lynne is Melba’s new spokesman and is widely derided as an ultra-kook even in Bigfoot circles. She says there are 10 Bigfoots living in and around her family’s rural property in Michigan. She feeds them fish and blueberry muffins! Once this story got out to the mainstream media, they all had a huge laugh about it. I even thought her story was insane, but apparently Lynne has a successful sample into Ketchum’s study, apparently validating that there are indeed Bigfoots living around her place and that her story is at least in part true. Holy Boogieman!

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