Category Archives: Iowa

Updated July 16: Profile of the Evansdale Child Killer

This is an update to my previous profile. The previous profile was of the Evansdale Child Killer, but I also thought maybe he was responsible for the Delphi Murders. I have now decided that he was not involved in the Delphi Murders at all despite a remarkable set of coincidences between the two. However, I continue to believe that he did the Evansdale Child Murders either alone or with an accomplice.

I have added quite a few things to the profile and I removed all references to the Delphi crimes. I have more to add, so this may be updated later.

Note to commenters: Please stop referring to Unsub as a pedophile. He may well be one, but that’s something that can be determined from this crime as it was not a pedophilic offense. Instead, this was a hebephilic offense. And the perpetrator could certainly be seen as a hebephile, although he’s not necessarily one. If you want to refer to the nature of the offense, use the word hebephilic instead of pedophilic. If you wish to refer to Unsub’s paraphilia, please refer to him as a hebephile and not a pedophile.

Thank you so much for this. I am getting tired of words being misused. And now we are being scientific on the board.

Note 2 to commenters: I am really getting sick and tired of saying this, but most of the material below is made up of rumors and my own opinions and theories. None of that is represented as fact. The only thing that is represented as fact as statements sourced from LE or the media.

And incidentally, the way I wrote up the case is precisely how detectives work a case. Detectives do not work cases using the scientific method. If they did, they would hardly solve one case. It’s more “We believe this for now…this is true for now…at the moment, this is what we think happened…we believe…” They are throwing out endless theories about what really happened and accepting them as (temporary) facts. They are then continuously revising and throwing out theories and creating new ones.

Being  a detective is about being wrong. Not just once, but being wrong over and over so many times your head will want to come off. If you can’t handle being wrong, then detective work is surely not for you. Finally detectives arrive at enough information to file a case against someone, but a lot of that is not factual either. They believe he did the crime. They believe that this, that, or the other happened with no way to really prove it – it’s just what they conjecture.

If he is convicted, then the theory that he did the crime is validated as fact, but I am not sure what other evidence is. And even court decisions are not scientific fact because they get overturned all the time. There are not a whole lot of 100% certain, clear scientific facts in LE work, detective work on the judicial system itself. A good portion of the decisions made turn out to be theories, temporary but unstable facts, beliefs, hunches and guesswork, all represented as fact in the court.

If you have issues with theories, opinions and what not, just quit reading and get the Hell off my site right now and never come back. I am really getting sick and tired of this BS.

Profile of the Evansdale Child Killer

by Robert Lindsay

The initial Unsub profile of the Evansdale Child Killer was written on February 25 with an update on February 28. I have updated it a lot with new information. Major changes were made in the profile.

I have been wrong many times in the past about all sorts of things, and of course I could be completely wrong about this too. But this time, I do strongly believe that the Unsub described below may be the man responsible for both of this crime.  

I am not a professional in this area. I am amateur, a dilettante. This is done more for my own entertainment as a hobby than as a profession. I do not claim that this profile is an accurate behavioral profile of the Unsub of the sort that the FBI produces regularly. I am just some amateur who is fooling around. So keep that in mind.

I am not stating this as fact. Things below may or may not be true. I believe much of the below is true because I have been able to document it as fact. Other things are more up in the air and are simply opinions that are strongly held by me. 

Profile

First of all, let us look briefly at the crime.

More than one killer? This is not known. The fact that Unsub may be a member of a network of pedophiles adds weight to the theory that he may have had a partner. Perhaps the network brings men together who share common criminal interests.

Purpose of killings? There has been much suggestion of why these killings occurred, to try to prevent identification, for sex trafficking, or a mistake because one of the girls ran, scream or freaked out. None of these are true. This pair of girls was abducted for the specific purpose of rape and murder for thrills. These were thrill kills. Unsub is the sort of man who gets a strong erection when he thinks about raping and murdering little girls. This is what gets him off. As the intention was murder from the start, sadly neither girl stood a chance.

How did Unsub arrive at the crime scene? He drove to it with his vehicle, parked it near the abduction site, and abducted the girls.

Where are the girls raped and murdered? I believe that both girls were quickly removed from the abduction sites and taken away somewhere to a motorhome where they were raped and murdered. These motorhome was parked in a remote, out of the way place for three weeks. At some point during this three week period, the girls were raped and killed.

Disposition of victims. After he raped and murdered the girls, he drove them to a dump spot. In Evansdale, it was 20 miles away from the abduction site.

Body dump spot: The bodies were dumped at near a stream in a park.

Abduction zone: Unsub committed his abductions in parks near bodies of water like streams, that have one or more bridges, especially railroad bridges.

Dump zone: After he killed the girls, he dumped the bodies 20 miles away.

Crime time: The crime was committed on the 13th of the month, possibly because 13 is an unlucky number. The crimes were committed on Friday the 13th, which is an especially unlucky day.

Sick humor: Unsub seems to have a sick sense of humor. He abducts and kills on unlucky days like the 13th as if to say, “This is your unlucky day, girls! Rape and murder, ha ha!”

Left town and did not come back for some time: Unsub left town the day of the abductions. No one knew where he was, but I believe that he took the girls away in his motorhome to a very remote place where he raped and tortured them. He stayed there for three weeks. At some point, in this three week period, the girls were raped and murdered. He was not seen at any point while he in this remote place.

Destroys evidence by three weeks: Unsub worked very carefully to remove all evidence within three weeks of the killings. He sold the motorhome three weeks after the abduction, but first he cleaned it very thoroughly, wiping down the whole structure. removing newspapers or pillows from the windows and throwing away all sheets.

Method of killing:  Unknown. I believe he really enjoys this part of the crime. This is where the crime reaches an ultimate peak experience for Unsub, a once in a lifetime great feeling or rush.

Unsub is 59 years old.

Unsub is a pedophile, a heterosexual pedophile. He likes little girls from age 2-12, mostly around age 6-10.

Unsub may be a nonpreferential pedophile. That means he is may also attracted to adult females, and he may enjoy having sex with them regularly. Not all pedophiles are exclusive. Nevertheless, his sexual preference is for girls age 6-10. His attraction to adult females is lower than to little girls, but may still be adequate for adult heterosexual functioning. He does not like women his own age though. If approached by a woman his own age, he will tell her that he only dates young women. If he dates adult women at all, he will probably confine himself to the youngest ones possible. He has had sex with boys in the past, but only if he dresses them up in girls’ clothes so they look like girls, as he is a heterosexual pedophile

Unsub is also sexual sadist. He has been a sexual sadist since no later than age 14, but he has been repressing the sexual sadism at least to the extent of not being murderous. At some point before five years ago, this control has broken down and is no longer repressed. This has coincided with an increasingly menacing look to him.

In appearance, Unsub is balding with white hair. In the past, he had stringy long blond hair. He had a goatee and mustache in recent years, but lately he has shaved most of it off except for a mustache and bit of a goatee.

Unsub looks downward instead of looking people straight in the eye. This could give the impression of “looking down at others.” This is intentional, as I feel that Unsub does indeed look down on others. He thinks very highly of himself, is narcissistic and thinks he is better than others. He also thinks he can outsmart police, and I believe he has been doing just that for the last five years when he has been getting away with murder.

Unsub altered his appearance since the Evansdale murders. In the past he had rather long stringy blond hair, a mustache and a goatee. He altered his appearance after the  Evansdale killings by shaving off the beard.

In the past, Unsub was often smiling and seemed happy go lucky. He looked harmless enough. He was surely molesting children, but he was not violent yet, so his face remained open and friendly.

In recent years, Unsub’s face has gotten angrier. He has been slowly developing an air of menace. This is because he has been transforming from a nonviolent pedophile into a violent pedophile. While in the past his fantasies were about non-coerced sex with children, they have now turned much more violent, and now he mostly fantasizes about rape and murder of girls age 6-10. Why he changed from a nonviolent to a violent pedophile is not known.

Unsub was paunchy for most of his adult life from age 40 on. Around 15 years ago at age 45 and probably for some time prior, he was heavier. His excess weight mostly went to his width, so he looked something like a football lineman. After age 45, he lost a lot of that weight. He has retained somewhat of a paunch since at least age 40. From 2012-present, he remained with this thinner frame, but I believe he retains a paunch to this day.

Unsub is not a happy serial killer. Instead he is a tormented one. Since the murders, he has grown much darker. He has also aged prematurely and looks much older than he did even a few years prior to the murders. His smile is gone and has been replaced by a look of sadness and especially rage. Now he looks downright mean. His friends have reacted to this by telling him he has aged. Others said things like, “Cheer up! Smile!”

Somehow this double homicide aged him and made him much sadder and angrier. This means that the Evansdale killings significantly stressed him out. Even though these type of crimes stress him out, he still commits them. That is because he is driven in some way to commit crimes like this. It is a sort of addiction. He is addicted to rape and murder.

Unsub has few hobbies other than pedophilia. He likes to hang out in local places like taverns, coffee shops, pool halls, etc. Here he likes to relax with friends and shoot the bull. He is a member of a pool-shooting league.

Unsub’s writing appears somewhat uneducated. He makes some spelling errors that an educated American never makes. However, in his rural Iowa area, he is about as educated as most people he knows, as most of them write about as poorly as he does.

His IQ is not particularly high. It is probably ~105-110, but he probably acts less intelligent than that. This can be seen in his poor writing style.

Unsub graduated from high school. He graduated from a religious college. Unsub is not good at completing scholarly tasks. He starts them and quits or takes a long time to fulfill his educational goals. For instance, he took 10-15 years to complete a four year college degree. He has a hard time sticking to tasks and has a tendency to drag things out. Why he does this is not known.

Unsub’s employment is working class. He repairs objects in some way. He is quite good mechanically. He works as a computer consultant or repairman, a mechanic, a truck or school bus driver, or at a factory.

However, he has the same desultory attitude towards work as he has towards school. Bottom line is that Unsub is a bit lazy. He would rather kick back and enjoy himself than work or go to school. He has a problem with sticking to either work  or school. Many tasks are started but never finished, but this does not bother Unsub much.

Unsub has not always been like this. This lackadaisical style developed in middle age. As a young man, he was much more productive. At one point he even owned his own business. I am not sure about how successful this business was though.

Unsub was in the US military. He participated in one of our Middle Eastern wars. I do not know when he joined the military. However, he  suffered some sort of an injury in service and was sectioned out. This was about 25 years ago.

I believe Unsub is quite religious. He is an evangelical Protestant Christian like so many in the surrounding area. He graduated from a religious college. He is probably very active in his local church, where he is regarded no doubt regarded as a great man. He probably has a number of friends through this church. How he reconciles his strong religious faith with raping and murdering little girls is hard to figure.

Although he has been losing his looks since his mid-50’s, Unsub was an attractive man until quite recently. He had a sexy appearance in a sort of bad boy, devilish way. He appeared masculine and handsome in a tough guy way.

Women in the local area were attracted to him due to his good looks. Even after age 50, he continued to attract attractive, sexy women all the way down to age 30. A number of the local younger women used to think he is “hot” or “cute.” No doubt this has gone to his head somewhat, and he thinks of himself as a ladies man.

Unsub is a fixated pedophile and has been so since age 14 at the latest. His pedophilia is one of the major themes of his life. I do not believe he has been controlling his pedophilia, and I think he has been molesting girls for quite some time. He may have gotten quite good at it. I believe that many people do not realize that he is a pedophile. He is still probably close to some members of his family and their friends. They probably do not suspect him of being a pedophile.

Unsub has married two, and he has a number of children and stepchildren through these marriages. Relations with one ex-wife probably are not good. The marriage ended bitterly, and there were some court battles with the ex-wife accusing Unsub of various outrages in an attempt to get full custody of the children. They had joint custody for a while, but there were big scenes and battles associated with this, so it didn’t work out well. Unsub and the ex-wife have engaged in big fights in public in broad daylight.

At least one of his ex-wives has a low opinion of him. This is because she has experienced his sociopathy firsthand. Unsub was been very mean and cruel to her during their marriage.

This ex-wife is now deathly afraid of Unsub and regularly tell people this. She accuses him publicly of being a pedophile and a sociopath. She considers Unsub to be a very dangerous person. She has accused him publicly of molesting specific girls and even boys. She tried to turn him in over this, but it didn’t go anywhere. If asked about this, Unsub probably says she is making this up as a bitter ex-wife.

I believe his children may also suspect Unsub of being a pedophile. Nevertheless, they continued to visit him in joint custody after the murders. However, after some court battles, his ex-wife has now retained sole custody of most of the children. Unsub retained custody of no more than one child. In addition, the ex-wife has moved out of the area quite a ways away to another state. Her location is 400-600 miles away from her previous one.

The ex-wife has several children of her own, four or more. The ex-wife continued to have kids into her 40’s. I believe that Unsub has molested at least some of his children and that this molestation went on for years. I believe he dressed two of his stepsons up like girls and molested them for years. I am unsure of how good his relationship is with his children, but at least some of them accuse him of being a pedophile. The children are all minors or they were when Unsub was still married.

Unsub has not always resided in the Iowa area. He was born in Ohio. Then he lived for a decade in Texas. Then he lived for 19 years in Tennessee. He moved to Iowa ~25 years ago, when he was ~35 years old.

The killer does not live in either Evansdale. He’s not that stupid. But I do believe he lives or at least used to live near there. He resides or used close to Evansdale.

I believe that Unsub took the Iowa girls to a motorhome of his. He then drove the motorhome to a remote area somewhere and was not seen for three weeks when he was in this place.  Within 12 hours of the Evansdale abduction, he left the area in  Evansdale where he was staying with a relative. He stayed away for at least three weeks.

It was in this motorhome that he raped and killed those girls. He blocked out the windows with either pillows or newspapers and may have even soundproofed the vehicle in order to do this. Afterwards he cleaned the motorhome as thoroughly as he could.

Unsub does not have a lot of money, but I  he owns or did own a modest home in Iowa close to Evansdale. He may used to own a motorhome which he used in this crime and then disposed of. His principal residence has the appearance of a sparsely or poorly-furnished bachelor residence. The walls are white with a white carpet. It is not even well-lit inside, and the residence has a dim look about it, even in daytime.

Unsub is is divorced and he lives alone. He probably has little girls over at his residence from time to time, but I am not sure if he molests them there or not. He has some photographs of little girls in his residence. I do not know if he collects child pornography, but he probably has a significant collection of photos of cute little girls obtained in a variety of places. He has some photos of himself with a little girl or two next to him.

Unsub continues to drive a fairly nice car. This car is a red Ford compact.

In the Evansdale killings, there was talk of a white SUV in the area where the girls disappeared. It was never proven to have any connection with the murders. I believe that Unsub used that white SUV to commit the Evansdale crimes. It is known that he did own a white SUV around 2012-2013, but it was broken down when last photographed. Nevertheless, photographs do show a white SUV parked next to his garage.

Unsub seems to take these murders rather hard. They take their toll on him. The Delphi Murders upset him because for a time he was considered a suspect but I believe he did not commit the Delphi Murders and has been ruled out. However, he is aware that people are now actively linking him to the Evansdale killings, and this is making him worried and highly stressed out. A couple of months ago, Unsub vanished from his central Iowa city. He seemed to vanish off the face of the Earth and has not been seen since. I believe he was feeling the heat from being a Delphi suspect and he is also worried that more people are pointing the finger at him over the Evansdale murders.

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4 Comments

Filed under Crime, Criminology, Girls, Iowa, Law enforcement, Lolitas, Mental Illness, Midwest, Pedophilia, Personality Disorders, Psychology, Psychopathology, Regional, Serial Killers, Sex, Sociology, Sociopathy, USA

The Latest News on Mr. X, the Best Suspect in the Evansdale Child Murders

The latest news on the Evansdale Child Killer case (see here for a profile of the best suspect) is quite interesting. The best suspect in that case is an Iowa man named Mr. X. The case against him is quite compelling, but it is all circumstantial evidence, hence they really have nothing on him. The FBI themselves have stated that all of the evidence against Mr. X is circumstantial.

Circumstantial evidence is generally not sufficient to arrest or much less try someone on a homicide charge. DA’s generally refuse to take such cases. If they ever do take such a case, any good defense attorney can win an easy acquittal because circumstantial evidence is simply not good enough to convict in a court of law in the US.

There never were any good suspects in the Evansdale killings of Lyric and Lizzie in July 2012.

The only suspect that was considered was dead by the time he was investigated. This man was a child killer who abducted two girls after the Evansdale murders. He killed one of the girls, but police closed in on him while he held the other girl captive. He committed suicide as police closed in. The only evidence at all against this man was the fact that he committed a similar crime a while after Evansdale. That’s not very good evidence. Police are now quite certain that this suspect was in another town a ways away at the time the Evansdale girls were abducted at 12:30 PM on that fateful day.

Other than the dead man who honestly never had a good case at all against him, the only other decent suspect was Mr. X, a resident of Cedar Rapids, Iowa. The evidence against Mr. X in this case is laid out in the document linked above.

Some have suspected that the Delphi and Evansdale murders were connected. There are indeed a list of remarkable similarities between the two crimes that would seem to defy the laws of chance. Here is a list of some of them:

  • The dates are exact mirror images of each other: 7.13.12 and 2.13.17!
  • Two girls aged 8 and 10 and two other girls aged 13 and 14 abducted five years apart.
  • Both occurred on the 13th day of the month: Friday July 13, 2012 and Monday, Feb 13, 2017!
  • Adding dates of birthdays and years may add up to 32 depending on how you do it. The number has a lot of negativity to it from history particularly in the occult when it is thought to represent “sacrifice” to Satanists.
  • Crimes both occurred in daylight hours (afternoon).
  • Girls were at local parks but in an area where they were separated from other visitors.
  • Both tiny rural towns.
  • Small, inexperienced (in major crimes) police forces.
  • State Rd 218 exists very close to both murders, perhaps less than a mile from 4-lane highways.
  • Trails are located at both Monon High Bridge in Delphi and Meyers Lake in Evansdale (Evansdale Nature Trail/Cedar Valley Nature Trail).
  • Two set of girls have similar body types.
  • At least one of each set of girls was an avid online communicator.
  • At least one of each set lived part-time with a grandparent.
  • Girls’ bodies were found 50 ft. from a slow moving river.
  • Body locations suggest that the suspect had a familiarity with the area surrounding the park.
  • Body locations are fishing/hunting/outdoorsman spots.
  • Bridges exist at both locations.
  • Geocaches were hidden at Monon High Bridge, Meyers Lake (Evansdale abduction site) and Seven Bridges (Evansdale body dump site).
  • “Rails to Trails” is an active organization in both locations.
  • Weichman Pig dealing operations exist in both areas.
  • Transco Railway products/services exist at both locations or very close by (Logansport).

Although many have suspected a link between the two crimes, the case against Mr. X is much better for the Evansdale killings than for the Delphi Murders.

The only evidence against Mr. X in the Delphi killings is:

  • Mr. X was off work on 2-13-27
  • Although Mr. X lived five hours away in Iowa, he had a truck delivery job that took him to the area around Delphi in Indiana on a regular basis. He often stopped at a hotel in Logansport and spent the night before heading back to Iowa. A worker at that hotel thought he recognized Mr. X as one of the truckers who regularly stayed there.
  • Mr. X’s ex-wife, who publicly accuses him of the Evansdale murders, stated that the suspect on the bridge in the Delphi case is her ex-husband based on visual identification, the principal suspect in the Evansdale killings.

That’s not a very strong case, not even as strong as the circumstantial case against Mr. X for Evansdale. Nevertheless, the Indiana State Police stated that Mr. X was a suspect in the Delphi murders. The last I heard was that they wanted to talk to him. I have no idea if detectives spoke to him or if so, what happened in the course of the interview. I also have no idea of the status of the case against Mr. X for Delphi – whether he has been cleared or is still considered a suspect. Nor is it known if LE has talked to the ex-wife at all, who now resides in Arkansas.

Now for the very interesting news.

As of last week, Mr. X has vanished off the face of the Earth. He is no longer in Cedar Rapids. He owned a home there, but it is not known whether he sold it or not. He has gone off the radar, and no one seems to know where he is at all. Why Mr. X has disappeared and where he has gone is not known.

So there you go folks, the latest on Mr. X, a strong suspect in the Evansdale killings and a much weaker suspect in the Delphi killings.

7 Comments

Filed under Crime, Iowa, Law enforcement, Midwest, Regional, Serial Killers, USA

Updated March 14: Sexually-Motivated Double Homicide in Delphi, Indiana, February 13, 2017: Liberty German and Abigail Williams

Note to commenters 3-22-17: I notice a huge number of you are coming in from Facebook. If you came from Facebook, could you please link me the page you came from so I can go over there and look at the postings. Thank for your cooperation!

Note to commenters 3-21-17: I will not allow the words pedophile, pedophilic or pedophilia to be used in connection with this crime because there is no pedophilia involved in this crime, and there is no evidence that the offender is a pedophile. These girls are too old for that. You may use it if you think Unsub committed other crimes with younger girls somewhere else.

The perpetrator could certainly be seen as a hebephile, although he’s not necessarily one. If you want to refer to the nature of the offense, use the word hebephilic instead of pedophilic. If you wish to refer to Unsub’s paraphilia, please refer to him as a hebephile and not a pedophile.

Note 2 to commenters: I am really getting sick and tired of saying this, but most of the material below is made up of rumors and my own opinions and theories. None of that is represented as fact. The only thing that is represented as fact as statements sourced from LE or the media.

And incidentally, the way I wrote up the case is precisely how detectives work a case. Detectives do not work cases using the scientific method. If they did, they would hardly solve one case. It’s more “We believe this for now…this is true for now…at the moment, this is what we think happened…we believe…” They are throwing out endless theories about what really happened and accepting them as (temporary) facts. They are then continuously revising and throwing out theories and creating new ones.

Being  a detective is about being wrong. Not just once, but being wrong over and over so many times your head will want to come off. If you can’t handle being wrong, then detective work is surely not for you. Finally detectives arrive at enough information to file a case against someone, but a lot of that is not factual either. They believe he did the crime. They believe that this, that, or the other happened with no way to really prove it – it’s just what they conjecture.

If he is convicted, then the theory that he did the crime is validated as fact, but I am not sure what other evidence is. And even court decisions are not scientific fact because they get overturned all the time. There are not a whole lot of 100% certain, clear scientific facts in LE work, detective work on the judicial system itself. A good portion of the decisions made turn out to be theories, temporary but unstable facts, beliefs, hunches and guesswork, all represented as fact in the court.

If you have issues with theories, opinions and what not, just quit reading and get the Hell off my site right now and never come back. I am really getting sick and tired of this BS.

New update March 23: Updated March 23: Sexually-Motivated Double Homicide in Delphi, Indiana, February 13, 2017: Liberty German and Abigail Williams

Huge update with major changes in my analysis of the case.

Sexually-motivated double homicide of two teenage girls, one 13 and the other 14. For some background on this heartbreaking case, see here.

This is an update of the case as of March 14, 2017. There’s not a lot of new information here, but there is a new photo. Also I listed sources for each bit of information because I am getting tired of idiot haters complaining about this stuff.

How Do I Know All This Stuff?

First: How do I know all this stuff?

Question: “Robert, How Do You Know So Much about Serial Killers, Pedophiles, Hebephiles and Sexual Sadists?”

I have done a lot of research on this case including released information, rumors and borderline areas such as cryptic statements by LE. I have also spoken to people close to the case, including those close to the search party and law enforcement investigation of this case. I also spoke to other sleuthers and people interested in the case. Some were associated with missing persons groups. This is the source of some of my material. Other information is derived from my own theorizing about the case. This includes offender profiling.

So there’s the source of all of the information.

My Musings on This Case

Rumors state that Libby was killed on 2-13, possibly pretty quickly, and Abby died or 2-14. Although this is still somewhat up in the air, I believe this is correct. The published obits state those dates. This has been confirmed to me by sources close to law enforcement. There is a rumor that the families chose those dates as death dates, but that would apply only to funerals, not obits. Obit info would come straight from coroner’s report. Therefore, the coroner’s report had to state different death dates. See below for more evidence that the girls died on different days. Sources: People close to LE, obituaries, and funeral notices.

This was not a crime of opportunity. He planned this very well. He plans his crimes with the utmost meticulousness. That is why he is armed with the gun and disguising himself. Source: My speculation based on the nature of the offense and the obvious skill involved.

As of yet, there is no good evidence to suggest that the girls may have been catfished from social media. Original rumor relied upon an odd statement by LE very early ion the case, “Parents need to be very careful of what their kids are doing on social media.” Adding to that were suggestive remarks from Libby’s friends about odd activities on her Instagram page. Bottom line is there is just no good evidence for this at the moment. Sources: Cryptic comments from LE, suggestive remarks from Libby’s friends about odd activity on her Instagram account.

Unsub is 5’10, 180 pounds with a bit of a middle aged man’s stomach paunch. Source: Expert on CNN, paunch obvious in photo.

Unsub’s age is ~60. At the very least, that style of pants is outdated and nowadays is only worn by men over 40 in that area. Presence of fanny pack also indicates an older man. They were popular in the late 1980’s, but I am told that hardly anyone wears them anymore except for some older guys like me. And Unsub. Well, we two have something in common anyway. Curiously, my age is almost exactly the same as his. Sources: LE stated that he had a fanny pack. My estimate on age. Info on fanny packs and jeans style by people looking at the photos.

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Excellent new drawing of Unsub from an LE artist.

LE believes that Unsub came from out of state to do this crime. This is my theory also based on my POI. I believe that Unsub drove 350 miles over 5 1/2 hours to do this crime. I believe this is in part why he has not been caught yet. He doesn’t even live in the same state! Source: Recent remark by Indiana State Police quoted in media, my theory based on my favorite POI.

Clearly Unsub has a pistol, a .45 or 911. The pistol was holstered to his right side, which means he is left-handed. The outline of the pistol can clearly be seen in the photo released of the man. A photo exists showing the pistol outlined with graphic software. Assuming that is a pistol, and it is, then Unsub is left-handed. Source: Gun is obviously visible in photograph. Left-handedness concluded from the holstered gun pointing backwards on the right side.

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Photo clearly shows a semiautomatic .911 or 45 mm handgun holstered on his right, which means he is lefthanded. That’s either a gun, or I’m a monkey’s uncle. I can’t believe so many people are saying that is not a gun. It’s as clear as air.

Unsub may be trying to disguise himself in the photos by using a hat and a scarf. Source: LE statement.

Unsub is wearing a hat, a jacket with a hoodie and blue jeans in the photo. In my opinion, the hat is a camouflage hunting cap with padded ear muffs. Unsub is overdressed for the weather. He seems to have layers of clothing on. He has almost his entire body covered with clothing.

Part of this is no doubt to disguise himself, but another reason is so he will have few exposed areas of his body where the girls could leave scratch marks if the girls fight back hard, although they still could scratch up his face pretty well. Source: LE statements about clothing. Statement about type of cap is my conjecture from the photo. Reason for being heavily dressed is common sense for an offender preparing to commit rape and murder.

Fanny pack probably where he kept his murder kit. Sources: LE statement quoted in the media. Murder kit is my conjecture. What else is in there? A first aid kit? Come on.

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GIF image of Unsub photos run together.

There has been much talk about whether or not there were two murderers or one. It is not yet proven that there were two killers, and LE is leaning towards the theory that there was one killer. However, even LE themselves described the perpetrators of this crime as “the murderers.” And from the very start, they referred to Unsub as a participant instead of a suspect. Participant is almost never used unless LE thinks there is more than one killer.

Police are now walking this back by saying that it’s standard procedure to assume maybe more than one killer, but they’re lying. It isn’t. There was some specific reason why they thought there were two killers in this case, and we do not know what that reason was. At any rate, they seem to be walking the two killers theory back too, and they are leaning towards one killer. Source: Very strange LE statements.

There are different stories about when the girls died. Libby seems to have died very quickly on the afternoon of 2-13. Abbie may have died at this time too as per a family statement. This is a weak rumor. Yet from the very start there were rumors about Abbie lingering on. The first said that Abbie was still alive when found and died on the way to the hospital. Another said that she was still alive when found and died on the scene. These two are also weak rumors.

A third and stronger rumor said that Abbie’s body was still warm when found and that the medical examiner concluded that she survived the attack but died later of hypothermia. Making this odd is new evidence that the entire crime occurred on the afternoon of 2-13 and it was all over in an hour or two. If this is true then somehow, Abbie lingered on and stayed alive for ~20 hours after a homicidal attack on her. It’s hard to believe and devastatingly sad if true that she lingered this long, but perhaps it is testimony to some special spirit the girl had to maintain life at all costs.

Who knows. If the body was warm, this means that Abbie died of hypothermia no earlier than 9:30 AM, as the bodies were discovered at 12:30 PM, and bodies only stay warm for 2-3 hours after death. This means that Abbie was certainly still alive when the search started at 9:30 AM. This third stronger rumor seems to be the best analysis right now. I know this sounds awful, but to me this is the saddest and cruelest part of this whole mad crime. That girl lingering for 20 hours. Good God.  Source: Family members, people close to LE.

There are rumors that the search party stated the bodies were moved in the course of this crime. The searchers stated that the girls had to have been moved, taken away and then returned to be dumped because the search party covered the same ground in both searches. The locale where they were found on 2-14 had previously been searched on 2-13.

The problem with this story is that it appears to be incorrect. That side of the creek was not even searched on 2-13 because they had not yet had permission from the landowner. That area was only searched the morning of 2-14. Also these poor girls were covered with leaves, which makes Abbie’s heroic quest to live an even more remarkable testament to her profound spirit.

The best analysis now seems to be that the murders and rapes happened soon after the girls were abducted, not long after Unsub ordered them “Go down the hill.” The entire south side of the creek was roped off as a crime scene, so no doubt this was where the girls were raped and murdered sometime after 3 PM 2-13. So why no noise? No one heard? How do you rape and murder two girls in broad daylight without anyone hearing?

Anyway, after the girls were raped and homicidally attacked, apparently the bodies were somehow moved across the stream, once again without anyone seeing, to the north side of the creek where the bodies were dumped. Source: People close to the search party, people close to the case. Common sense from LE talk implying that the murders occurred very soon after Unsub’s voice recording.

There is indeed a voice recording of Unsub saying, “Go down the hill.” This was recorded heroically by Libby by turning on the recorder on her phone as the girls were being abducted. The sound recording of the crime is said to be much longer than what was released. It has also been implied, terrifyingly, that the sound recording is actually the recording of the rapes and murders. That probably makes it one of the worst sound recordings made in a crime case in some time. The last one coming close to this would have to be the recordings from the Tool Box Murders in 1979. Source: People close to the case.

Anyway, I can now reveal part of what is on the unreleased portion of the tape. After Unsub says, “Go down the hill,” at some point later, the next thing we hear is both girls screaming. Good Lord. It’s no wonder LE doesn’t want to release that tape. Source: A person close to the families.

The place where the girls were found was described as pristine by members of the search party. The site of a recent homicide, especially a bloody and brutal one, never looks pristine. Just forget it. So we must conclude that the site where the girls were found was a body dump site and they were murdered on the other side of the creek. Sources: People close to the search party.

A prior theory of mine that was adopted by many others was based upon the insistence of search party members that the girls had to have been moved because the place where they were found on 2-14 was already searched on 2-13. First, even if it were true, the girls were covered with leaves so they could have easily been overlooked in the dark.

This theory was quite complex and involved the girls surviving the initial abduction despite LE statements implying that they did not.

Problem one. It also needed the girls to have been placed in a vehicle and taken somewhere to some structure where the killer(s) did their deeds. What structure? Where? How were they not seen?

Problem two. And it implied killers idiotically and implausibly returning to the scene of the abduction to dump the bodies, possibly on 2-14. And those bodies would have had to have been dumped right under the nose of Ron Logan as he resided on his property.

Problem three. Worst of all, it seemed to have needed the search area to be kept under surveillance  from 3 PM 2-13 until 2-14 2:30 AM. How did this happen? Who was the lookout?

This washed-out theory had so many bizarre problems with it that I am glad we have the new theory of the killings and dumpings both occurring on the afternoon of 2-13 soon after the abductions. This ties it all together so much better. Not to mention Occam’s Razor of course. Source: People close to the case, my own theorizing.

There is talk of a Ford Mustang that can be barely seen in  lower left of the photo of Abbie on the bridge below the bridge. It is very hard to make out, but it could well be a vehicle. How it was determined to be a Ford Mustang and a white one at that is not known. It is not yet known how this vehicle was involved in the case. The best analyses are that the girls were not placed in this car but instead that this car was either simply in the area for some innocuous reason or that the car was involved in the crime but in some other way than placement or transporting of the girls. Perhaps that is Unsub’s vehicle. Who knows?

The road that it is parked on  is a very little used road that almost no one has even heard of. It appears to have been a road used by workers to maintain  the bridge. Access to it is quite difficult and involves some convoluted twists and turns of road, not to mention that part of the access is via a private driveway. It does seem very odd to me that that car is in that location right before the girls got abducted. I am thinking that that car does not belong there at all and that it is significant to the case in some unknown way. Source: Sleuths analyzing the photo of Libby on the bridge, people close to the case.

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The vehicle can barely be seen circled in blue, or maybe you can’t make it out at all. This photo has now been enhanced.

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The vehicle is still hard to make out in this enhanced photo, but if you look very carefully, you might be able to see a car. Or maybe you won’t. Squint and try your luck.

Libby’s grandfather who raised her made an odd statement, “I know Libby. She put up one Hell of a fight.” The grandfather has been cleared. However, he is correct that Libby put up a strong battle. The reason that the grandfather said she put up a wild fight is probably because that is what it says in the medical report. If she fought hard, there will be talk of defensive wounds and maybe DNA under her nails.

The condition of her body at the funeral adds weight to the notion that she fought back very hard and sustained many defensive wounds because she had many small wounds on her body and face. In that case, Unsub may have scratch marks. Source: Media reports and statements from people at the funeral. Common sense that the only way the grandfather would known that she fought hard was if he saw the coroners’ report.

I believe the gun obviously holstered on the right under the jacket of Unsub was probably used to control the girls. He also got them to keep quiet, probably with the gun. However, I do not believe the gun was used to kill the girls. It would have made too much noise. Rumors that this was not a gun crime are correct. Source: Common sense that the gun would be the best way to control the girls and common sense that a gun crime would have involved audible gunshots. No gunshots were heard, so doubtless there was no gun fired in this crime.

There is a rumor that both girls had their throats slit. This is a strong rumor. Funerals were open casket, and both girls had scarves covering their necks, more to cover something up than as clothing. This adds weight to the theory that their throats were slit. There are two rumors about the knife attack on one of the girls. A weak rumor says she was decapitated. The strong rumor says she was nearly decapitated. A decapitation would have been hard for a funeral director to hide and both girls had their heads on at the funeral. Of the two rumors, the strong one looks better, but we don’t even know if the girl’s wound was that grievous.

The girl who suffered this grievous wound must have been poor Libby because Abbie’s wound was apparently mild enough to survive for 20 hours after the attack. No one can survive a near-decapitation. Even the incredibly determined Abbie, who I am starting to think is Supergirl, could not have survived that. Sources: Rumors, very first reports of the crime from family members. Later confirmation from people close to LE. Statements by people at the funeral.

And now I have some even worse news to report. A new rumor says that both girls were beaten so badly in their faces that they were nearly unrecognizable. This rumor may well be true, but at least Abbie was fixed up pretty good in her face for the funeral, so one wonders how a funeral director could have covered up such devastating wounds. Source: An apparently knowledgeable and trustworthy female commenter from Delphi on a website.

This offense was clearly sexually motivated and it seems quite clear that sexual assault occurred in the course of the crime. About this, there are two rumors. A weak rumor said that Libby was found clothed and Abbie was nude. This rumor has logical problems as it is generally assumed that both girls were raped. So Unsub raped her, killed her, and then thoughtfully put her clothes back on? Come on. The second rumor that both girls were found nude and raped is stronger and seems to be better.  Sources: Very first reports of the crime from family members and later confirmation from people close to LE, general rumors.

The girls’ clothing was found in the creek. This was no doubt an attempt by Unsub to destroy any DNA evidence. Source: Statements from reporter at the scene. Common sense indicates that this was an attempt to destroy DNA in the case.

Ron Logan, the property owner where the girls were found, was in Lafayette, Indiana on 2-13, and Unsub may have known he would not be there, but there is no proof of this. How he may have known this, I have no idea. Source: Media.

There is now a lot of talk that Ron Logan or perhaps his son were involved in this crime. This always struck me as unlikely, and Logan was quickly cleared. Now sometimes cleared suspects are later re-evaluated, accused of being culpable and arrested. But that’s pretty rare. And some of the people who cleared him were the FBI, making a false clearance even less likely.

Ron Logan was detained last weekend on a probation violation stemming from a drunk driving arrest earlier. The 77 year old Logan reportedly has a drinking problem. This arrest has sparked wild rumors that Logan was the killer of those girls. He never struck me as the type and he’s a bit old for a murdering rapist. Logan’s son is also being accused, but I am not impressed by the  weak evidence against him. Neither man strikes me as a likely POI. Source: Rumors, sleuths, media interviews, news reports, my own analytical skills.

There has been much talk of Jimmy Duvall possibly being Unsub. Duvall committed a serious crime against an 11 year old girl quite some time ago when he was 23. A month before, he had committed a similar offense. The judge said he had a “character disorder.” This typically means a personality disorder and used in a case like this, it surely means that has Antisocial Personality Disorder. In other words, Duvall is a sociopath or a psychopath. He served a good ~25 years for this crime and was released ~8 years ago.

He has apparently not offended since he has been released. Mr. Duvall was taken in for questioning early in this case and was asked to give a DNA sample. He then returned to his job at the auto plant. Rumors say that Duvall took 2-13 off as the first day off work in years and has since disappeared.

Neither rumor is correct. Yes, Duvall took 2-13. After all, it was his day off, why wouldn’t he? And he has not actually disappeared. My understanding is that he is at home taking a sick leave.

His creepy Facebook page was the subject of much discussion. It portrayed a man obsessed with evil, death, the Devil, murder and other pleasant themes. He also seemed to be a man struggling very had against his antisocial urges. No doubt he has a paraphilia, and of course he is sociopathic. But the best analysis is that LE has cleared Duvall of participation in this crime.  Sources: Rumors, court cases, sex offender files, Facebook pages.

Three other posts in this series:

Updated March 9: Profile of the Evansdale-Delphi Serial Killer

The Case for Unsub Involvement in Both the Delphi and Evansdale Double Murders

The Case for Linking the Delphi Murders with the Evansdale Murders

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Filed under Crime, Criminology, Iowa, Law enforcement, Mental Illness, Midwest, Pedophilia, Personality Disorders, Psychology, Psychopathology, Regional, Serial Killers, Sex, Sociology, Sociopathy, USA

Possible Major Break in the Delphi and Evansdale Murders

Note to commenters: Please stop referring to Unsub as a pedophile. He may well be one, but that’s something that can be determined from this crime as it was not a pedophilic offense. Instead, this was a hebephilic offense. And the perpetrator could certainly be seen as a hebephile, although he’s not necessarily one. If you want to refer to the nature of the offense, use the word hebephilic instead of pedophilic. If you wish to refer to Unsub’s paraphilia, please refer to him as a hebephile and not a pedophile.

Thank you so much for this. I am getting tired of words being misused. And now we are being scientific on the board.

Note 2 to commenters: I am really getting sick and tired of saying this, but most of the material below is made up of rumors and my own opinions and theories. None of that is represented as fact. The only thing that is represented as fact as statements sourced from LE or the media.

And incidentally, the way I wrote up the case is precisely how detectives work a case. Detectives do not work cases using the scientific method. If they did, they would hardly solve one case. It’s more “We believe this for now…this is true for now…at the moment, this is what we think happened…we believe…” They are throwing out endless theories about what really happened and accepting them as (temporary) facts. They are then continuously revising and throwing out theories and creating new ones.

Being  a detective is about being wrong. Not just once, but being wrong over and over so many times your head will want to come off. If you can’t handle being wrong, then detective work is surely not for you. Finally detectives arrive at enough information to file a case against someone, but a lot of that is not factual either. They believe he did the crime. They believe that this, that, or the other happened with no way to really prove it – it’s just what they conjecture.

If he is convicted, then the theory that he did the crime is validated as fact, but I am not sure what other evidence is. And even court decisions are not scientific fact because they get overturned all the time. There are not a whole lot of 100% certain, clear scientific facts in LE work, detective work on the judicial system itself. A good portion of the decisions made turn out to be theories, temporary but unstable facts, beliefs, hunches and guesswork, all represented as fact in the court.

If you have issues with theories, opinions and what not, just quit reading and get the Hell off my site right now and never come back. I am really getting sick and tired of this BS.

This Delphi murders case has not had much to offer us but grief and disappointment for the last month. The investigation in my opinion, has not gone anywhere. I don’t think they even have any decent POI’s.

However I think this may be changing now, and I am now very optimistic that this case can be solved or at least I think LE is finally onto a really decent POI, let’s put it that way. I strongly believe that this POI did both the Evansdale and Delphi murders.

Now whether they can actually gather enough evidence to arrest him in either of those cases is another matter altogether. It will certainly be very hard to tie Mr. X to Evansdale because so much time has passed and other factors I will not go into. Bottom line is after four years, it’s going to hard to develop any actionable evidence against him in that case.

But we are only a month into the Delphi case, so there’s a much better chance to gather good evidence in this case. But LE needs to jump on this right now. Not now. Yesterday.

The break is thus:

  • In my opinion, the best suspect in the Evansdale case is a man I will call Mr. X. I never thought they had any decent suspects in that case, and to me, this guy had the best case of anyone so far. Granted, the evidence is all circumstantial, but to me it is quite convincing. That is all I will say for now.
  • The major break is that Mr. X, the best suspect in the Evansdale case, has now been positively identified as the man on the bridge in Delphi. The person who ID’d Mr. X as Bridge Man knows him very well. In fact, this person lived with him for some period of time, possibly for 5-10 years. I have no information on whether this person ID’d Mr. X’s voice too, but I know they ID’d the photo.

LE stated that they are actively following up on the lead and attempting to contact Mr. X.

That is all for now. I do not want to say too much about this case, and I am working together with some other sleuths to figure out how much information I should release at once. I may just dribble it out bit by bit. I do not wish to jeopardize the police investigation in the Delphi murders in any way, shape or form. That is why I am being so cautious with what I release. I know about 100 X more about Mr. X than I have written here, but I am not going to go into any of that right now.

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Filed under Crime, Iowa, Law enforcement, Midwest, Regional, Serial Killers, USA

Updated March 9: Profile of the Evansdale-Delphi Serial Killer

Note to commenters: Please stop referring to Unsub as a pedophile. He may well be one, but that’s something that can be determined from this crime as it was not a pedophilic offense. Instead, this was a hebephilic offense. And the perpetrator could certainly be seen as a hebephile, although he’s not necessarily one. If you want to refer to the nature of the offense, use the word hebephilic instead of pedophilic. If you wish to refer to Unsub’s paraphilia, please refer to him as a hebephile and not a pedophile.

Thank you so much for this. I am getting tired of words being misused. And now we are being scientific on the board.

Note 2 to commenters: I am really getting sick and tired of saying this, but most of the material below is made up of rumors and my own opinions and theories. None of that is represented as fact. The only thing that is represented as fact as statements sourced from LE or the media.

And incidentally, the way I wrote up the case is precisely how detectives work a case. Detectives do not work cases using the scientific method. If they did, they would hardly solve one case. It’s more “We believe this for now…this is true for now…at the moment, this is what we think happened…we believe…” They are throwing out endless theories about what really happened and accepting them as (temporary) facts. They are then continuously revising and throwing out theories and creating new ones.

Being  a detective is about being wrong. Not just once, but being wrong over and over so many times your head will want to come off. If you can’t handle being wrong, then detective work is surely not for you. Finally detectives arrive at enough information to file a case against someone, but a lot of that is not factual either. They believe he did the crime. They believe that this, that, or the other happened with no way to really prove it – it’s just what they conjecture.

If he is convicted, then the theory that he did the crime is validated as fact, but I am not sure what other evidence is. And even court decisions are not scientific fact because they get overturned all the time. There are not a whole lot of 100% certain, clear scientific facts in LE work, detective work on the judicial system itself. A good portion of the decisions made turn out to be theories, temporary but unstable facts, beliefs, hunches and guesswork, all represented as fact in the court.

If you have issues with theories, opinions and what not, just quit reading and get the Hell off my site right now and never come back. I am really getting sick and tired of this BS.

Profile of the Evansdale Child Killer

by Robert Lindsay

The initial Unsub profile of the Evansdale Child Killer was written on February 25 with an update on February 28. I have updated it a lot with new information. Major changes were made in the profile.

I have been wrong many times in the past about all sorts of things, and of course I could be completely wrong about this too. But this time, I do strongly believe that the Unsub described below may be the man responsible for both of this crime.  

I am not a professional in this area. I am amateur, a dilettante. This is done more for my own entertainment as a hobby than as a profession. I do not claim that this profile is an accurate behavioral profile of the Unsub of the sort that the FBI produces regularly. I am just some amateur who is fooling around. So keep that in mind.

I am not stating this as fact. Things below may or may not be true. I believe much of the below is true because I have been able to document it as fact. Other things are more up in the air and are simply opinions that are strongly held by me. 

Profile

First of all, let us look briefly at the crime.

More than one killer? In Evansdale, this is not known. The fact that Unsub may be a member of a network of pedophiles adds weight to the theory that he may have had a partner. Perhaps the network brings men together who share common criminal interests.

Purpose of killings? There has been much suggestion of why these killings occurred, to try to prevent identification, for sex trafficking, or a mistake because one of the girls ran, scream or freaked out. None of these are true. This pair of girls was abducted for the specific purpose of rape and murder for thrills. These were thrill kills. Unsub is the sort of man who gets a strong erection when he thinks about raping and murdering little girls. This is what gets him off. As the intention was murder from the start, sadly neither girl stood a chance.

How did Unsub arrive at the crime scene? He drove to it with his vehicle, parked it near the abduction site, and abducted the girls.

Where are the girls raped and murdered? I believe that both girls were quickly removed from the abduction sites and taken away somewhere to a motorhome where they were raped and murdered. These motorhome was parked in a remote, out of the way place for three weeks. At some point during this three week period, the girls were raped and killed.

Disposition of victims. After he raped and murdered the girls, he drove them to a dump spot. In Evansdale, it was 20 miles away from the abduction site.

Body dump spot: The bodies were dumped at near a stream in a park.

Abduction zone: Unsub committed his abductions in parks near bodies of water like streams, that have one or more bridges, especially railroad bridges.

Dump zone: After he killed the girls, he dumped the bodies 20 miles away.

Crime time: Both crimes were committed on the 13th of the month, possibly because 13 is an unlucky number. The Evansdale crimes were committed on Friday the 13th, which is an especially unlucky day. The Delphi crimes were committed on the 13th and the next day, which was Valentine’s Day.

Sick humor: Unsub seems to have a sick sense of humor. He abducts and kills on unlucky days like the 13th as if to say that this is your unlucky day, girls! Rape and murder ha ha! He may have hit on Valentine’s Day for a similar reason. Here’s your Valentine’s Day gift, girls! Rape and murder! Have fun!’

Leaves town and did not come back for some time: In one of these pairs of killings, Unsub left town the day of the abductions. No one knew where he was and it was theorized that he was in some structure such as a cabin, trailer or motorhome parked in some very remote place.

Destroys evidence by three weeks: Unsub worked very carefully to remove all evidence within three weeks of the killings. He sold the motorhome three weeks after the abduction, but first he cleaned it very thoroughly, wiping down the whole structure. removing newspapers or pillows from the windows and throwing away all sheets.

Method of killing:  Unknown in Evansdale. I believe he really enjoys this part of the crime. This is where the crime reaches an ultimate peak experience for Unsub, a once in a lifetime great feeling or rush.

Unsub is aged 55-65 based on his photos, voice and other things. Roundabout let’s call it ~60.

Unsub is a pedophile, a heterosexual pedophile. He likes little girls from age 2-12, mostly around age 6-10. However, 13 and 14 year old girls are not too far out of his AOA. Many pedophiles are also hebephilic, and it’s common for pedophilic AOA’s to include girls age 13-15 because these girls still have enough of a childlike quality to attract the pedophile. By age 16, most girls are simply too grown up for all pedophiles and hebephiles.

Unsub may be a nonpreferential pedophile. That means he is may also attracted to adult females, and he may enjoy having sex with them regularly. Not all pedophiles are exclusive. Nevertheless, his sexual preference is for girls age 6-10. His attraction to adult females is lower than to little girls, but may still be adequate for adult heterosexual functioning. I may not like women his own age though. If approached by a woman his own age, he may tell her that he only dates young women. If he dates adult women at all, he will probably confine himself to the youngest possible ones. I believe he may also have sex with boys, but only if he dresses them up in girls’ clothes so they look like girls as he is a heterosexual pedophile

Unsub is also sexual sadist. He has been a sexual sadist since no later than age 14, but he has been repressing the sexual sadism at least to the extent of not being murderous. At some point in at least the last five years, this control has broken down and is no longer repressed. This has coincided with an increasingly menacing look to him.

In appearance, Unsub may be balding with white hair. In the past, may have had stringy long blond hair. He may have had a goatee and mustache in recent years, but lately he has may have shaved most of it off except for a mustache and bit of a goatee.

Unsub looks downward instead of looking people straight in the eye. This could give the impression of “looking down at others.” This is intentional, as I feel that Unsub does indeed look down on others. He thinks very highly of himself, is narcissistic and thinks he is better than others. He also thinks he can outsmart police, and I believe he has been doing just that for the last five years when he has been getting away with murder.

Unsub may have altered his appearance since the Evansdale murders. In the past he may have had rather long stringy blond hair, a mustache and a goatee. He altered his appearance since the Evansdale killings by shaving off the beard.

In the past, Unsub was often smiling and seemed happy go lucky. He looked harmless enough. He was surely molesting children, but he was not violent yet, so his face remained open and friendly.

In recent years, Unsub’s face has gotten angrier. He has been slowly developing an air of menace in recent years. This is because he has been transforming from a nonviolent pedophile into a violent pedophile. While in the past his fantasies were about non-coerced sex with children, they have now turned much more violent, and now he mostly fantasizes about rape and murder of girls age 6-10. Why he changed from a nonviolent to a violent pedophile is not known.

Unsub was paunchy for most of his adult life from age 40 on. Around 15 years ago at age 45 and probably for some time prior, he was heavier. His excess weight mostly went to his width, so he looked something like a football lineman. After age 45, he lost a lot of that weight. He has retained somewhat of a paunch since at least age 40. From 2012-present, he remained with this thinner frame, but I believe he retains a paunch to this day.

Unsub is not a happy serial killer. Instead he is a tormented one. Since the murders, he has grown much darker. He has also aged prematurely and looks much older than he did even a few years ago. His smile is gone and has been replaced by a look of sadness and especially rage. Now he looks downright mean. His friends have reacted to this by telling him he has aged. Others said things like, “Cheer up! Smile!”

Somehow this double homicide aged him and made him much sadder and angrier. This means that the Evansdale killings significantly stressed him out. Even though these type of crimes stress him out, he still commits them. That is because he is driven in some way to commit crimes like this. It is now a sort of addiction. He is addicted to rape and murder.

Unsub has few hobbies other than pedophilia. He likes to hang out in local places like taverns, coffee shops, pool halls, etc. Here he likes to relax with friends and shoot the bull. He is a member of some sort of sporting group, possibly a pool-shooting league.

Unsub’s writing appears somewhat uneducated. He makes some spelling errors that an educated American never makes. However, in his rural Iowa area, he is about as educated as most people he knows, as most of them write about as poorly as he does.

His IQ is not particularly high. It is probably ~105-110, but he probably acts less intelligent than that. This can be seen in his poor writing style.

Unsub graduated from high school. He graduated from a religious college. Unsub is not good at completing scholarly tasks. He starts them and quits or takes a long time to fulfill his educational goals. For instance, he took 10-15 years to complete a four year college degree. He has a hard time sticking to tasks and has a tendency to drag things out. Why he does this is not known.

Unsub’s employment is working class. He repairs objects in some way. He is quite good mechanically. He works as a computer consultant or repairman, a mechanic, a truck or school bus driver, or at a factory.

However, he has the same desultory attitude towards work as he has towards school. Bottom line is that Unsub is a bit lazy. He would rather kick back and enjoy himself than work or go to school. He has a problem with sticking to either work  or school. Many tasks are started but never finished, but this does not bother Unsub much.

Unsub has not always been like this. This lackadaisical style developed in middle age. As a young man, he was much more productive. At one point he even owned his own business. I am not sure about how successful this business was though.

Unsub was in the US military. He participated in one of our Middle Eastern wars. I do not know when he joined the military. However, he  suffered some sort of an injury in service and was sectioned out. This was about 25 years ago.

I believe Unsub is quite religious. He is an evangelical Protestant Christian like so many in the surrounding area. He graduated from a religious college. He is probably very active in his local church, where he is regarded no doubt regarded as a great man. He probably has a number of friends through this church. How he reconciles his strong religious faith with raping and murdering little girls is hard to figure.

Although he has been losing his looks since his mid-50’s, Unsub was an attractive man until quite recently. He had a sexy appearance in a sort of bad boy, devilish way. He appeared masculine and handsome in a tough guy way.

Women in the local area were attracted to him due to his good looks. Even after age 50, he continued to attract attractive, sexy women all the way down to age 30. A number of the local younger women used to think he is “hot” or “cute.” No doubt this has gone to his head somewhat, and he thinks of himself as a ladies man.

Unsub is a fixated pedophile and has been so since age 14 at the latest. His pedophilia is one of the major themes of his life. I do not believe he has been controlling his pedophilia, and I think he has been molesting girls for quite some time. He may have gotten quite good at it. I believe that many people do not realize that he is a pedophile. He is still probably close to some members of his family and their friends. They probably do not suspect him of being a pedophile.

Unsub has married two, and he has a number of children and stepchildren through these marriages. Relations with one ex-wife probably are not good. The marriage ended bitterly, and there were some court battles with the ex-wife accusing Unsub of various outrages in an attempt to get full custody of the children. They had joint custody for a while, but there were big scenes and battles associated with this, so it didn’t work out well. Unsub and the ex-wife have engaged in big fights in public in broad daylight.

At least one of his ex-wives has a low opinion of him. This is because she has experienced his sociopathy firsthand. Unsub was been very mean and cruel to her during their marriage.

This ex-wife is now deathly afraid of Unsub and regularly tell people this. She accuses him publicly of being a pedophile and a sociopath. She considers Unsub to be a very dangerous person. She has accused him publicly of molesting specific girls and even boys. She tried to turn him in over this, but it didn’t go anywhere. If asked about this, Unsub probably says she is making this up as a bitter ex-wife.

I believe his children may also suspect Unsub of being a pedophile. Nevertheless, they continued to visit him in joint custody after the murders. However, after some court battles, his ex-wife has now retained sole custody of most of the children. Unsub retained custody of no more than one child. In addition, the ex-wife has moved out of the area quite a ways away to another state. Her location is 400-600 miles away from her previous one.

The ex-wife has several children of her own, four or more. The ex-wife continued to have kids into her 40’s. I believe that Unsub has molested at least some of his children and that this molestation went on for years. I believe he dressed two of his stepsons up like girls and molested them for years. I am unsure of how good his relationship is with his children, but at least some of them accuse him of being a pedophile. The children are all minors or they were when Unsub was still married.

Unsub has not always resided in the Iowa area. He was born in Ohio. Then he lived for a decade in Texas. Then he lived for 19 years in Tennessee. He moved to Iowa ~25 years ago, when he was ~35 years old.

The killer does not live in either Evansdale. He’s not that stupid. But I do believe he lives or at least used to live near there. He resides or used close to Evansdale.

I believe that Unsub took the Iowa girls to a motorhome of his. He then drove the motorhome to a remote area somewhere and was not seen for three weeks when he was in this place.  Within 12 hours of the Evansdale abduction, he left the area in  Evansdale where he was staying with a relative. He stayed away for at least three weeks.

It was in this motorhome that he raped and killed those girls. He blocked out the windows with either pillows or newspapers and may have even soundproofed the vehicle in order to do this. Afterwards he cleaned the motorhome as thoroughly as he could.

Unsub does not have a lot of money, but I  he owns or did own a modest home in Iowa close to Evansdale. He may used to own a motorhome which he used in this crime and then disposed of. His principal residence has the appearance of a sparsely or poorly-furnished bachelor residence. The walls are white with a white carpet. It is not even well-lit inside, and the residence has a dim look about it, even in daytime.

Unsub is is divorced and he lives alone. He probably has little girls over at his residence from time to time, but I am not sure if he molests them there or not. He has some photographs of little girls in his residence. I do not know if he collects child pornography, but he probably has a significant collection of photos of cute little girls obtained in a variety of places. He has some photos of himself with a little girl or two next to him.

Unsub continues to drive a fairly nice car. This car is a red Ford compact.

In the Evansdale killings, there was talk of a white SUV in the area where the girls disappeared. It was never proven to have any connection with the murders. I believe that Unsub used that white SUV to commit the Evansdale crimes. It is known that he did own a white SUV around 2012-2013, but it was broken down when last photographed. Nevertheless, photographs do show a white SUV parked next to his garage.

Unsub seems to take these murders rather hard. They take their toll on him. The Delphi Murders upset him because for a time he was considered a suspect but I believe he did not commit the Delphi Murders and has been ruled out. However, he is aware that people are now actively linking him to the Evansdale killings, and this is making him worried and highly stressed out. A couple of months ago, Unsub vanished from his central Iowa city. He seemed to vanish off the face of the Earth and has not been seen since. I believe he was feeling the heat from being a Delphi suspect and he is also worried that more people are pointing the finger at him over the Evansdale murders.

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Filed under Crime, Criminology, Girls, Iowa, Law enforcement, Midwest, Narcissism, Pedophilia, Personality, Psychology, Psychopathology, Regional, Serial Killers, Sex, Sociology, USA

The Case for Linking the Delphi Murders with the Evansdale Murders

Note to commenters: Please stop referring to Unsub as a pedophile. He may well be one, but that’s something that can be determined from this crime as it was not a pedophilic offense. Instead, this was a hebephilic offense. And the perpetrator could certainly be seen as a hebephile, although he’s not necessarily one. If you want to refer to the nature of the offense, use the word hebephilic instead of pedophilic. If you wish to refer to Unsub’s paraphilia, please refer to him as a hebephile and not a pedophile.

Thank you so much for this. I am getting tired of words being misused. And now we are being scientific on the board.

Note 2 to commenters: I am really getting sick and tired of saying this, but most of the material below is made up of rumors and my own opinions and theories. None of that is represented as fact. The only thing that is represented as fact as statements sourced from LE or the media.

And incidentally, the way I wrote up the case is precisely how detectives work a case. Detectives do not work cases using the scientific method. If they did, they would hardly solve one case. It’s more “We believe this for now…this is true for now…at the moment, this is what we think happened…we believe…” They are throwing out endless theories about what really happened and accepting them as (temporary) facts. They are then continuously revising and throwing out theories and creating new ones.

Being  a detective is about being wrong. Not just once, but being wrong over and over so many times your head will want to come off. If you can’t handle being wrong, then detective work is surely not for you. Finally detectives arrive at enough information to file a case against someone, but a lot of that is not factual either. They believe he did the crime. They believe that this, that, or the other happened with no way to really prove it – it’s just what they conjecture.

If he is convicted, then the theory that he did the crime is validated as fact, but I am not sure what other evidence is. And even court decisions are not scientific fact because they get overturned all the time. There are not a whole lot of 100% certain, clear scientific facts in LE work, detective work on the judicial system itself. A good portion of the decisions made turn out to be theories, temporary but unstable facts, beliefs, hunches and guesswork, all represented as fact in the court.

If you have issues with theories, opinions and what not, just quit reading and get the Hell off my site right now and never come back. I am really getting sick and tired of this BS.

The Case for Unsub Involvement in Both the Delphi and Evansdale Murders

I believe the Delphi, Indiana double homicide Unsub was involved in the Evansdale, Iowa double homicide of two girls aged 8-10. They also disappeared in the woods in a park named after five bridges, which are all in the park. There may be railroad bridges there also. They were also found by a stream as in this case. They were dumped in another regional park 20 miles away.  The bodies were discovered in very poor condition near a stream. The bodies were in such poor condition that there was no way to determine whether the girls had been sexually abused. Neither was it possible to determine mode of killing.

However, if the MO in Delphi was throat-slitting, perhaps it was in Evansdale also. As at least one of the Delphi girls was raped, the Evansdale girls were probably sexually abused too. As Unsub is a pedophile, it makes little sense for him to abduct girls only to murder them. His primary motivation in these crimes is sexual and sexual assault is surely a necessary factor in his attacks. He is also motivated by homicidal tendencies. I believe he kills the girls for a sadistic thrill rather than to get rid of witnesses. Part of the whole reason for abducting the girls is to kill them.

Here are the commonalities between the two cases:

  • Bridges, especially railroad bridges.
  • Bodies of water, especially streams.
  • Small regional parks with the above in them.
  • Young girls aged 8-14.
  • Pairs of girls.
  • Attacks occur on the 13th of the month, perhaps because 13 is an unlucky number. So it’s the “unlucky day” for the girls who his victims. He thinks this is funny as he has a sick sense of humor.
  • Same general region of Iowa and Indiana, about 350 miles east to west.
  • Body dumps near streams
  • Probable rape or sexual abuse in both cases. Present at Delphi, probable at Evanston.

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Filed under Crime, Criminology, Girls, Iowa, Midwest, Pedophilia, Regional, Serial Killers, Sex, Sociology, USA

Updated February 26: Sexually-Motivated Double Homicide in Delphi, Indiana, February 13, 2017: Liberty German and Abbie Williams

Note to commenters: Please stop referring to Unsub as a pedophile. He may well be one, but that’s something that can be determined from this crime as it was not a pedophilic offense. Instead, this was a hebephilic offense. And the perpetrator could certainly be seen as a hebephile, although he’s not necessarily one. If you want to refer to the nature of the offense, use the word hebephilic instead of pedophilic. If you wish to refer to Unsub’s paraphilia, please refer to him as a hebephile and not a pedophile.

Thank you so much for this. I am getting tired of words being misused. And now we are being scientific on the board.

Note 2 to commenters: I am really getting sick and tired of saying this, but most of the material below is made up of rumors and my own opinions and theories. None of that is represented as fact. The only thing that is represented as fact as statements sourced from LE or the media.

And incidentally, the way I wrote up the case is precisely how detectives work a case. Detectives do not work cases using the scientific method. If they did, they would hardly solve one case. It’s more “We believe this for now…this is true for now…at the moment, this is what we think happened…we believe…” They are throwing out endless theories about what really happened and accepting them as (temporary) facts. They are then continuously revising and throwing out theories and creating new ones.

Being  a detective is about being wrong. Not just once, but being wrong over and over so many times your head will want to come off. If you can’t handle being wrong, then detective work is surely not for you. Finally detectives arrive at enough information to file a case against someone, but a lot of that is not factual either. They believe he did the crime. They believe that this, that, or the other happened with no way to really prove it – it’s just what they conjecture.

If he is convicted, then the theory that he did the crime is validated as fact, but I am not sure what other evidence is. And even court decisions are not scientific fact because they get overturned all the time. There are not a whole lot of 100% certain, clear scientific facts in LE work, detective work on the judicial system itself. A good portion of the decisions made turn out to be theories, temporary but unstable facts, beliefs, hunches and guesswork, all represented as fact in the court.

If you have issues with theories, opinions and what not, just quit reading and get the Hell off my site right now and never come back. I am really getting sick and tired of this BS.

This post has now been updated:

Updated March 6: Sexually-Motivated Double Homicide in Delphi, Indiana, February 13, 2017: Liberty German and Abigail Williams

Sexually-motivated double homicide of two teenage girls, one 13 and the other 14. For some background on this heartbreaking case, see here.

This is an update of the case as of February 26, 2017.

How Do I Know All This Stuff?

First: How do I know all this stuff?

Question: “Robert, How Do You Know So Much about Serial Killers, Pedophiles, Hebephiles and Sexual Sadists?”

I have done a lot of research on this case including released information, rumors and borderline areas such as cryptic statements by LE. I have also spoken to people close to the case, including those close to the search party and law enforcement investigation of this case. I also spoke to other sleuthers and people interested in the case. Some were associated with missing persons groups. I have pretty good sleuthing skills involving research. This includes digging through background information databases online and other sorts of web research.

This is the source of some of my material.

I also worked a bit with Indiana State Police and the FBI, sharing my POI’s and tips with them. It is not an astounding statement. Please realize that a lot of people are working with LE in trying to solve this case. However, LE did not reveal much information to me other than some cleared suspects. Other information is derived from my own theorizing about the case. This includes offender profiling. And I believe I have some mild psi skills.

So there’s the source of all of the information.

My Musings on This Case

The girls were obviously tied up, I believe with a rope. But it is not proven that rope was used.

I believe that Libby was killed on 2-13, possibly pretty quickly, and Abby died or 2-14. The published obits state those dates. This has been confirmed to me by sources close to law enforcement. There is a rumor that the families chose those dates as death dates, but that would apply only to funerals, not obits. Obit info would come straight from coroner report. Therefore, the coroner report had to state different death dates. See below for more evidence that the girls died on different days.

When the search was going on, Libby’s phone was dead.

This was not a crime of opportunity. He planned this very well. He plans his crimes with the utmost meticulousness. That is why he is armed with the gun and disguising himself.

I have reason to believe that these girls were catfished, possibly via Libby’s Instagram page, although this is not proven yet. That is, the girls may have thought they were going there to meet a teenage boy, but instead they met the killer. The killer would have pretended to be a teenage boy in  order to lure the girls. There is no hard evidence for this, but there is some suggestive evidence via cryptic LE statements and friends of Libby’s speaking about activity on her Instagram account.

In my opinion, Unsub is approximately 5’8-5’10, ~160 pounds with a bit of a middle aged man’s stomach paunch.

LE stated that they believe that Unsub came from out of state to do this crime.

Clearly Unsub has a pistol, a .45 or 911. The pistol was holstered to his right side, which means he is left-handed. The outline of the pistol can clearly be seen in the photo released of the man. A photo exists showing the pistol outlined with graphic software. Assuming that is a pistol, and it is, then Unsub is left-handed. He is either left-handed or pretending to be left-handed. Pretending to be left-handed makes no sense in a case like this as it would be hard to draw with his fake left. This would result in a clumsy draw resulting in possible dropping or fumbling with the weapon. Therefore, Unsub is left-handed.

Law enforcement stated in the media that Unsub may be trying to disguise himself in the photos by using a hat and a scarf. 

He is wearing a hat, a jacket with a hoodie and blue jeans in the photo. In my opinion, the hat is a camouflage hunting cap with padded ear muffs. Unsub is overdressed for the weather, but February in Indiana is pretty cold. He seems to have layers of clothing on. He has almost his entire body covered with clothing. Part of this is to disguise himself but another reason is so he will have few exposed areas of his body if the girls fight back hard. The layers of clothing will prevent them from leaving scratch marks on his body, although they still could scratch up his face pretty good.

LE confirmed in the media that Unsub has a fanny pack. This is probably where he kept his murder kit.

Talk of backpacks and duffel bags makes no sense to me. I do not believe that Unsub had a backpack or a duffel bag, but perhaps he did. At any rate, there was a man dressed in all black seen at the time also. This man definitely had a backpack. I believe that this man participated in the murders with Unsub. In other words, there were two killers.

There were apparently two killers in this case. This can be gleaned from cryptic LE statements. Very quickly, with the release of the photo, LE described Unsub as the man who “participated” in the killings. However, if you study this sort of thing, LE never uses the word participated when describing a crime with a single killer. That verb is only used when there is more than one killer. I kept wondering why they always used the word participated.

At the large video press conference, we got more evidence. At ~3 minute mark, the officer says, “And I especially want to thank the person whose information will lead to the arrest of the murderers of these girls.” I have listened to that part of the tape over and over, and he clearly said murderers. He did not misspeak. He said that intentionally.

Later in the conference, after a cryptic statement by an officer, someone in the audience jumped up and asked, “Wait a minute! Do you think there were two killers?” The officer then said, “Look, this is one of the strangest,  oddest, most confusing and  convoluted cases I have ever worked on, ok? So just keep that in mind.” With that statement, it’s pretty clear that he is cryptically stating that there were two killers. 

As far as how LE came to state that there were two killers by using the word “participated,” I believe that they came to that conclusion by gleaning four sets of DNA from the crime scene: Two sets were Libby and Abbie, and the third was Unsub. But if a fourth DNA sample was found at the site, that can only mean two killers. LE’s official statement right now is that they do not know whether there were one or two killers involved. I believe that the evidence revealed so far is sufficient to conclude that there were indeed two killers.

Sources close to law enforcement say that Abbie’s body was still warm when found, and the medical examiner concluded that she survived the attack but died later of hypothermia. If the body was warm, this means that Abbie died of hypothermia no earlier than 9:30 AM, as the bodies were discovered at 12:30 PM, and bodies only stay warm for 2-3 hours after death. This means that Abbie was certainly still alive when the search started at 9:30 AM.

Sources in the search party in the Delphi case confirmed that the bodies were moved in the course of this crime. They stated that the girls had to have been moved, taken away and then returned to be dumped because the search parties covered the same ground in both searches. The locale where they were found on 2-14 had previously been searched on 2-13. The 2-13 search began at 5:30 PM, and by that time, the girls had been moved out of the area. The attack began at ~2:15 PM, so the girls were moved out of the area sometime between 2:30-5:30 PM.

Unsub must have put the girls in his vehicle and transported them somewhere where he assaulted them either in his vehicle or at a residence, either his own residence, an associate’s residence, an abandoned residence, or a residence that he had use of. Unsub was certainly not in the area from 5:30 PM on 2-13 until 2:30 AM on 2-14 and from 9:30 AM-12:30 PM on 2-14. Therefore, the girls were returned to the site on 2-14 between 2:30 PM-9:30 AM on the morning of 2-14. Unsub has a seven hour window on 2-14 in which to return the girls to the site.

Unsub probably parked his vehicle on the road next to the cemetery. Police vehicles were seen in the area, but they were not searching the cemetery. Instead there was a long line of them parked on the road next to the cemetery. Therefore, Unsub may have parked his vehicle on the road next to the cemetery.

In published UK media, grandfather who raised her made an odd statement, “I know Libby. She put up one Hell of a fight.” The grandfather has been cleared. However, he is correct that Libby put up a strong battle. The reason that the grandfather said she put up a wild fight is probably because that is what it says in the medical report. If she fought hard, there will be talk of defensive wounds and maybe DNA under her nails. The condition of her body at the funeral adds weight to the notion that she fought back very hard and sustained many defensive wounds. In that case, Unsub may have scratch marks.

I do not believe that LE has any particular POI at this moment. They are far away from solving this case.

The first LE they did was to go around questioning people who were being talked about as possible suspects. They have already cleared a number of people this way. They are also going around to all of the local RSO’s and questioning them. They want them to come talk about the case. While at the police station, they searched their phones and asked them to submit DNA. They are clearing many of the RSO’s this way.

The raid was on the property of the Jim Maxwell who lives on Bicycle Road. He is completely innocent and cleared. This poor guy had nothing to do with it.

I believe the gun obviously holstered on the right under the jacket of Unsub was used to control the girls. He also got them to keep quiet, probably with the gun. However, I do not believe the gun was used to kill the girls. It would have made too much noise. Rumors that this was not a gun crime are probably correct.

Sources people close to law enforcement confirmed that both girls had their throats slit. Funerals were open casket, and witnesses stated that both girls had scarves covering their necks, more to cover something up than as clothing. This adds weight to the theory that their throats were slit. Libby also had small wounds in many places on her body, and her face had been somewhat injured. This is because she fought back against him very hard.

This is obviously a sexually motivated offense. Initial reports said both girls were raped. Sources close to law enforcement confirmed that rape was involved in this case and that Abbie was definitely raped. Whether Libby got raped is not known, and there are problems with the theory. There are different reports about the state of the bodies. There are rumors that both girls were nude. But sources close to LE say that Abbie was nude while Libby was clothed. It is difficult to reconcile Libby being raped with her being found fully clothed.

There is no evidence of physical torture in this case.

Prepubertal girls have no sex drive, and they have no sexual interest in boys. If these were prepubertal girls, we could rule out their meeting a boy via social media, as girls that age are not interested in boys sexually. At sexarche, usually age 13, the sex drive comes on strongly, and many girls become very sexually interested in boys and even men. Both girls had surely passed sexarche. Therefore, it makes perfect sense that they could have been there to meet a boy their age.

Ron Logan, the property owner where the girls were found, was in Lafayette, Indiana on 2-13, and Unsub may have known he would not be there, but there is no proof of this. How he may have known this, I have no idea.

Other posts in this series:

Possible Major Break in the Delphi and Evansdale Murders

Updated March 9: Profile of the Evansdale-Delphi Serial Killer

The Case for Unsub Involvement in the Delphi and Evansdale Double Murders

If you think this website is valuable to you, please consider a contribution to support the continuation of the site. Donations are the only thing that keep the site operating.

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Filed under Anxiety Disorders, Art, Child Porn, Crime, Criminology, Girls, Iowa, Law, Law enforcement, Mental Illness, Midwest, OCD, Pedophilia, Personality Disorders, Pornography, Psychology, Psychopathology, Regional, Serial Killers, Sex, Sociology, Sociopathy, USA

Liberal/Conservative Trends by State over the Last 20 Years

Big G: If the demos keep pushing gun control the Republicans will win. The only republican to win any contested government seat anywhere was over the gun issue.

Another William Playfair Web: certainly does cut into support of battlegrounds like Iowa, Virginia, N.C.

In W.V. that and coal are we are reddening by the hour.

She will win Iowa, Virginia and North Carolina. All three of those states are trending quite a bit more liberal over 20 years.

However, West Virginia is trending dramatically more conservative over the past 20 years. There are not a lot of states trending more conservative, but that is one of them. Tennessee is another.

Red states trending more conservative are West Virginia, Tennessee, Kentucky, Alabama, Louisiana, Arkansas, Missouri, Oklahoma, Utah and Arizona. A few blue states are going a little more conservative, but they are still solid blue. I am thinking places like Massachusetts and Rhode Island are getting more conservative.

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Filed under Conservatism, Democrats, Iowa, Liberalism, Louisiana, Massachusetts, Midwest, North Carolina, Northeast, Political Science, Politics, Regional, Republicans, South, US Politics, USA, Utah, West

Swing State Election Forecast

Swing states include states like Colorado, Nevada, New Mexico, Iowa, Wisconsin, Michigan, Ohio, Pennsylvania, New Hampshire, Virginia, North Carolina and Florida.

Nevada and New Mexico are Western states that were former Republican strongholds, but have gone over to Democratic in recent years. Most of this is due to more Hispanics in those states. Hillary will win both states.

Colorado is a bit more red, but it is also getting more Democratic. Colorado was former hard conservative Western state, but it’s changed. This is also due in large part to a growing Hispanic population. This state is very much up in the air, and Trump is leading at the moment. It will be a challenge for Hillary to win here, and Trump may well win Colorado. The percentage of gun nuts in this Wild West state is very high.

Iowa has also been trending Democratic. Reasons are not known. Hillary will probably win, but it may be quite close.

Wisconsin has been trending heavily Democratic for some time now. Hillary will win this state handily. Hillary is not even spending one nickel on ads here now because she knows it is in the bag.

Michigan has also been getting more more Democratic lately, and Hillary will win here easily. Hillary is not buying any ads here either.

Ohio is very much up in the air. This is another state that has been trending Democratic lately. Hillary has been ahead in the polls by 4-5 points though. This state could probably go either way.

Pennsylvania has not voted for a Republican in nearly 30 years. Polls show a close race, but Hillary is not spending one nickel on ads here yet. Hillary’s campaign says their internals show a much better race for Hillary. Apparently Hillary thinks she has it in the bag. Pennsylvania as a whole has been getting more Republican if you go county by county, especially in the east and center of the state. However these rural counties are not heavily populated.

The problem with Pennsylvania for Republicans is Pittsburgh and especially Philadelphia. Most of the state’s population lives in these large urban centers that are heavily minority. Philly in particular has a huge Black population. The Democratic votes in the cities should easily outweigh the rural red counties. Hillary should win Pennsylvania.

New Hampshire was long famous for being a conservative state, but it has been voting Democratic in recent years also. Hillary will easily win this state.

Virginia is very much a swing state. This was long a conservative Republican stronghold, the capital of the Confederacy. However, many Northerners have been moving down there in recent years, changing the state. This is very nearly a blue or Democratic state now. It’s incredible. Hillary will most probably win Virginia, but it will be close.

North Carolina is very much up in the air. This state was a conservative red state for a very long time. However, it is now moving towards the Democratic Party, but it is not all the way there yet. This is because many young hipsters have been moving down there for the good jobs to be had in the region, especially in the Research Triangle, where many high tech firms have moved.

It seems hard to believe that the state of Jesse Helms is now moving Democratic. The state is now flip-flopping back and forth between voting for Democrats and voting for Republicans. The state government is still very conservative. This was where the famous transgender bathroom bill was passed recently. This will be a very close race, and it could easily go either way.

Florida is the ultimate swing state and has been flipping back and forth between Democratic and Republican votes for President for the last 20 years. I have no information how the state was voting before then. If anyone knows, please tell me.

Northern Florida is like the US South and is very conservative. The center of the state is very mixed, and the south is also also a very mixed bag.

Many Jews from the Northeast have been moving down to Southern Florida to retire. These people vote Democrat. The state also has a very large Black population, especially in the northern part of the state. South Florida is very Hispanic but these Hispanics are conservative as they are mostly Cubans. Cubans have long voted Republican, but a lot of the younger ones are voting Democrat. There are also large populations of rightwing Venezuelans and Nicaraguans living here who fled leftwing regimes. However, there are also many Haitians here, and they vote Democrat. There are many Puerto Ricans in the center of the state, especially around Orlando. They vote Democratic.

This state will be incredibly close as it has been since at least 2000. The state government is run by Republicans, and there are major voter suppression efforts underway. Florida is completely up in the air and could go either way.

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Filed under Blacks, Colorado, Conservatism, Cubans, Democrats, Florida, Haitians, Hispanics, Iowa, Jews, Michigan, Midwest, Nevada, New Mexico, Nicaraguans, North Carolina, Northeast, Political Science, Politics, Puerto Ricans, Race/Ethnicity, Regional, Republicans, South, US Politics, USA, West, Wisconsin

Why the Wolverines in the Midwest Post Is Important

This is why the Wolverines in the Midwest post is significant. It is probably the most thorough account on the Net of wolverine sightings in the Upper Midwest.

The bottom line is wolverines are not just in Michigan and North Dakota where they have been proven to exist, but they are surely in Minnesota, Wisconsin, Iowa, South Dakota, and even unbelievably Nebraska. I also have one sighting in Missouri, incredible as it sounds.

In my opinion, the Great Plains and the Upper Midwest used to be wolverine territory, and they are now reclaiming it. They may well even breed there, as I have sightings of kits alive and dead and two wolverines walking together, one behind the other (probably a mother and father). There are also a number of sightings of females, though I am not sure how they figured that out. I do not agree that the wolverines on the Plains are wanderers. I believe they actually live there somehow. We should get new records from Wisconsin, Minnesota, Michigan, South Dakota, Iowa and maybe even Nebraska in the forseeable future. That North Dakota wolverine was not a fluke.

The significance of this is that both the best available science and all US Fish and Wildlife Services (USFWS) wolverine documents hypothesize that wolverines never lived in the Midwest or the East, even though we have records from all of these places. The argument is that they were wanderers or possibly never existed at all. How a wolverine wanders from Ontario, Canada to Ohio, Pennsylvania and New Hampshire is beyond me.

In 1918, a biologist spotted two young wolverines in New Hampshire. Those do not seem to be wanderers, and the biologist though they were evidence of breeding. Further, now that we are documenting so many wolverines in the Upper Midwest, the simplest explanation is not that they are all transients and wanderers, but that they actually lived there. 25 wolverines were trapped in Eastern North Dakota alone between 1801-1806. There is no way that you can trap that many wolverines in such a small area unless they are a resident population.

The USFWS, wolverine biologists, and the Wolverine Foundation all state there never was a resident wolverine population in the Midwest or the East.

I do not know the motives of the Wolverine Foundation, but I know that some of these environmental groups actually get angry when they see their favored species expanding out of its known range. Why? Because they are trying to get the thing listed as endangered! If it is expanding its range, maybe it is not rare enough to be listed, get it? They actually want these animals to be rare and they are not happy when they appear to be more common. Sort of the law of unintended consequences.

I wonder what the motivation is for USFWS saying that wolverines never lived in the Midwest or back East. Possibly because that would extend their historic range that much further, so whereas now we maybe say wolverines occupy 15% of their historic range, if you include all that Midwest and back East, maybe they only occupy 3% of their historic range. 3% is worse than 15% and any animal that is only occupying 3% of its historic range seems like it needs to be listed, and USFWS does not want to list them. Is that it?

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