Daily Archives: February 18, 2018

Is There Life After Death?

I told you so.

But I already figured this out before they proved it. I don’t need Mommy Science to prove things for me. I can figure them out on my own and prove them on my own via my own use of the empirical method, which we all use every day, all day long, anyway. So we are all little scientists. And we little scientists don’t need the Big Scientists to tell us what’s true and not true or real and not real  when we have already figured these things out on our  own via our own empirical investigations.

This was my latest theory – that you live for at least a couple of hours after you die, and the article seems to back it up. There is a very convincing account on Quora of a man who was apparently dead for two hours and then regained life somehow. Don’t ask me how that works.

This man also has a very convincing testimony of reincarnation.


Filed under Biology, Death, Medicine, Neuroscience, Psychology, Science

Reincarnation Is Apparently Real

There have been a number of very convincing cases of reincarnation lately involving young children. These children took them right to the house that they lived in before they died, often a house in another country. They describe the house perfectly and even describe the people who lived there when they were alive previously. It’s all very convincing and the only way it’s not true is if the parents made up this whole thing and got the kid to go along with it. If that’s not the case (and I doubt that it is) then reincarnation must be a real thing. I don’t know much more about it, but it seems clear that at least some of us running around this Earth used to live here in previous lives and can recall those lives down to tiny details. Have we all lived before? I am not sure. I only know that a few people definitely have.

I don’t have these right at hand, but they are available on the Net. The most recent one I read was shocking evidence for reincarnation and the reincarnated person was only a small child. But the child led them to a house in another nation, I believe France, and described the house down and the people who lived there down to a T before she even arrived in France. Either it’s evidence of reincarnation or the parents (and the kid) faked the whole thing.

And that’s not the only case. There have been a number of others that are said to be as good as that one. I am afraid to look them up though because the whole thing is so creepy and weird. It frightens me to even think about it.


Filed under Weirdness

Updated January 18: Double Homicide in Delphi, Indiana, February 13, 2017: Liberty German and Abigail Williams

This is a new update of the Delphi Murders. If you want a good backgrounder, I would ask you to look at this cumulative post that details all of the good cumulative evidence we have uncovered so far. It also details our latest theories about the crime.

New Person of Interest in the Delphi Murders Case!

This is the blockbuster news.

We can now state with 100% certainty that LE have a new Person of Interest in the Delphi Murders. This is important as the previous Person of Interest, Daniel Nations, did not pan out and is now said to not be a suspect. So this would be the second major Person of Interest after Nations. Our information is that both the FBI and the Indiana State Police are stating that this man is a Person of Interest in the Delphi Murders case.

We do know quite a bit about this man, as we also learned a lot about Nations. I have been thinking hard about how much I should reveal to you about this man. I have decided to reveal absolutely nothing about him in part to protect him as he may very well be innocent.

However, you might be able to figure out who this man is on your own if you smart. The information is sitting right out there on the open Internet for all to see. All you have to do is go find it!

Reasons for membership and paywall of the forum

This is also one of the reasons we went behind a members only paywall – that way we could sleuth to our hearts content anyone and everyone and accuse anyone of anything and not have to worry about libel or defamation charges. Also we are protecting the privacy of the people we are investigating by not putting our accusations and their personal information about them on the public web. The paywall is to protect the innocent until proven guilty people we are investigating!

In addition, our members themselves requested that paywall be put up so they could sleuth in peace. When we were free, we had suspects, trolls, spies and stalkers come into the group. They reposted our conversations all over the web, threw people out of Facebook groups, used the site to viciously attack us, especially on Topix, and last but not least, a number of our female members were stalked, pestered and had their personal information posted on the web. These women got very frightened by this intimidating behavior. I went paywall in part to protect the good women in my group from creepy stalkers, and the woman agreed with my decision.

If we are behind a paywall in a members’ only group, we can say whatever we want because it cannot be seen by the general public. It is as if you had a house, and you invited some people over to sleuth some crime. Inside the house, you accused or suspected various people of being killers, looked up their personal information, etc. Really behind the closed doors of a house, you can say anything and everything about anyone, and there’s no libel or defamation because no one can hear you. Libel and defamation is only possible when you put accusations out into the public media for anyone and everyone to see.

Why We Are Revealing Nothing about the POI

Everyone is innocent until proven guilty. We do not want to send lynch mobs after people who have been convicted, much less charged or even arrested, of a crime. This man and everyone else being investigated in this case by us or other is entitled to his peace.

We have taken seriously some comments that LE have made about investigations being done in the open as opposed to behind closed doors. In our favor, we will say that LE released almost no information about this crime, and that inevitably set off a wild rumor mill and amateur sleuthing industry. What did they expect would happen? That is exactly what is going to happen when you release just about zero evidence.

I thought long and  hard about this, and I concluded that the revealing information about this new Person of Interest would not benefit the investigation. We don’t want to get in the way LE’s investigation of this crime. We are here to help, not hinder.

False Statements about Websleuths “Interfering with the Investigation”

Also I would like to point out that mostly LE has been complaining about the side by side comparisons being posted on the web comparing various citizens to the composite. First of all, we have never done this on our public web. Show us one case where we ever put up a side by side with citizens’ photos next to media of the killer accusing anyone of anything. We do that in the paywalled forum all the time, but no one can see that, so it’s not a problem. Second of all, LE do not particularly care if you put up side by sides. It’s no skin off their back and it does not interfere with their investigation. Their only concern was that the people doing the side by sides were setting themselves up for libel and defamation charges.

In addition, LE were annoyed that web sleuthers were calling in so many lousy tips. It doesn’t screw up the investigation, but it wastes their time. We try not to do that here. It’s not common that we tell a member to call in a tip, but we do it sometimes.

LE have never accused any amateur sleuths ever of “interfering with the investigation” of these murders. Show us one place where they ever said that. Instead, they used that phrase a lot to describe revealing certain information to the public could harm the investigation. They only used that phrase to refer to themselves, not to others.

Conclusion about the Person of Interest

However, I can tell that there is good, hard evidence that both the FBI and the ISP are currently saying that this man is a Person of Interest in the Delphi Murders. It is sitting right out there on the Internet in plain view for everyone to see. And I am not going to tell you where to find it or even what type of webpage or media it is. You will have to do that for yourselves.

Our Methods

We get attacked all the time for changing our theories about the crime. But this is not a problem. We are simply following the scientific method here, and this is why we are always changing our theories. We get a theory and throw it up for now. Then we try to falsify it. We constantly test it so see if it is accurate. And at times, we try to resurrect falsified theories from the dead if can get evidence confirming them. For the most part our only sources have been the rumor mill, and while some good information has come out of the rumors, a lot of the information was flat out wrong.

It is said that we make up lies about this case. We have never made up one single lie about this case. All of our theories are backed up by rumors coming from other people or evidence that we have uncovered. We go over all of the rumors about the case all of the time and try to figure out which ones are credible and which are not or what degree of credibility they have. We try to find out the source of the rumor and how credible that person is. We look for other rumors that falsify that rumor and then try to figure out which is true, the rumor or its falsification.

This is actually very hard work and we don’t take it lightly. A lot of these rumors have not panned out due to our diligent efforts to falsify them, and this is the reason that our theories change a lot. But detectives are often always changing their theories and hypotheses about murder cases, and they give weight to rumors too, at least as potential leads to falsify or verify. So the same methods that we have been attacked so viciously for are actually standard detective procedures.

We have an excellent team including a physician, a psychologist, a graphic artist, and a sleuth who can actually do skip traces on cars, something that normally only LE are able to do it. Some private investigators also know how to skip trace, but many do not as it is very hard to do.

Possible Vehicle of Interest in the Crime

It took us a full four months to skip trace two suspected license numbers in this case. One went back to a rental car and another went back to a dealership. However, both of these different plates were on the exact same model, make and color of vehicle that was seen in Delphi that day. We do not know if we are dealing with two separate identical vehicles here (hence the two different plates) or if we are dealing with a single vehicle that had its plates switched right before the crime.

These vehicle(s) were seen at the trailhead at 3 PM (we have a copy of the social media  post on that) and earlier in the day were photographed 7 miles south of Delphi with the license number written down. We have copies of all of those photos too. The license photographed that morning goes back to a rental car that was rented that day by a known suspect in the case (we discovered this via skip trace), but the license on the  dealer’s drive-off paper plates seen at the trailhead at 3 PM on an identical car goes back to a dealer’s lot where this same make, model and color of car was parked, so at the moment, there is no way to connect the two vehicles, as the license numbers do not match up.

However, both plates match up to the exact same make, model and color of car, which is strange. If the killer switched the plates, he would have had to have known the make, model and color of the car he was going to rent to do the crime and then go to a dealers’ lot and steal paper plates off of a car with the exact same make, model and color of car as he was going to use to commit the crime that day. He would leave the rental car plates on in the morning, hence the photograph south of Delphi.

But right before the crime, he would have had to switch out the plates and replace the rental car plates with the paper drive-off plates. Our sleuth felt that the man photographed south of Delphi (we know who he is) who was photographed was innocent because the plates did not match up. She acknowledged that he could have gone this great length above to acquire plates for identical cars and then switch one out at the last minute, but she thought he would have to be a criminal mastermind to do that, and she felt that the man with the rental car was not smart enough to pull that off.

However, my opinion is that the man who did this crime is indeed a criminal mastermind in a lot of ways. I would say he committed the perfect crime except that I believe he will be caught at some point. He got away with it for a year though, with millions of eyes on him and the top LE detectives in the country on his tail, so I’d say he’s pretty slick. Maybe not quite slick enough though, hopefully.

I understand if you are completely confused right now and I apologize, but this case is  like a labyrinth in so many ways.

Accusations about the Victims’ Sex Lives (If Any)

I would like to address one more thing.

It has been said that we have written that both girls were very sexually active or promiscuous. We never said any such thing. We speculated that one of them may have been sexually active due to a longstanding rumor that one of the girls were barely pregnant.

Our latest thinking is that it is not true according to Becky Patty. We took a tremendous amount of heat for that theory, but we didn’t start it. That rumor was flying all around Delphi and the surrounding area for some time. We spent months trying to falsify that rumor because it was creating so much bad publicity for us, but we were not able to do it until Becky Patty spoke up. I would like to thank Becky from the bottom of my heart for clearing up these rumors.

Our current opinion is that we have no idea if either girl was sexually active, although one had a boyfriend. We don’t feel that this question is important to the murder investigation. It might be interesting to the friends and family of the girls if they want to learn details about how these girls lived their lives, but it’s a personal matter for their friends and family. Bottom line is we don’t know the answer to that question and furthermore, it has no importance to the investigation, so we think people should stop talking about it.

Possible Crime Scene Photos Showing a Victim’s Body


This is the photo that we reported earlier was a photo from the crime scene showing one girl’s body.

This is the photo that we thought was of the one of the victims at the crime. It was taken from a news helicopter flying over the scene. The format was a long video, over 30 minutes. This photo was taken from a still from that video during a portion where the copter was flying over some woods, and there were numerous flashes going off. To us, it is obvious that those were crime scene photographers photographing the crime scene. Therefore, this had to be a crime scene photo showing a victim’s body, albeit in widely distorted and nearly unrecognizable form.

Just to show you how scientific we are, problems soon came up with this theory, and we had to seriously reevaluate it.

First of all, this photo is apparently from a different area that is not near the crime scene. Instead it is over by the cemetery. I was never able to prove this for myself, but a couple of my sleuths kept insisting that based on landmarks, this photo was nowhere near the crime scene. I will take their word for it for now.

Second, some have suggested that the “crime victim” in that photo is about 15 feet tall based on measurements. This was never proven to me either, but if it’s true, it rules out a victim’s body, as neither girl was anywhere near 15 feet tall.

We now have a 15 foot tall “victim’s body” in the wrong place away from the crime scene. So this photo looks like a dud.

However, there is a major problem with the theory that this photo is a dud. And that is all of those flashes going off in the woods. Obviously those are detectives photographing the crime scene or some scene associated with the crime. Why would they be away from the crime scene over by the cemetery photographing some part of the woods? Did the killer leave some evidence over there on his way out? That seems bizarre, and I still keep thinking this must be the crime scene.

So here we have a typical situation in science where something cannot be false and it cannot be true either. In science, we call this sort of thing a “problem.” In my particular field, linguistics (I publish in peer reviewed academic journals and books in this field), we are always investigating problems (things that don’t make sense or cannot be explained well) in an effort to solve them. That is what many papers are about. These seemingly senseless and unsolvable problems crop up all the time in science and even in life. Often after a while, we figure out a solution, but a lot of things we never end up figuring out one way or the other, and they just end up being forever mysterious.

Which is where I resign these photos to. These photos are mysteries. We do not know what those are photos of. Maybe that is a girl’s body from a murder crime scene. Maybe it is not and it’s some artifact or something else in the woods. We have no explanation for the flashes not being near the crime scene if that is true. We don’t know whether that object is 15 feet tall or not.

Our verdict is that that photo is of an unknown object in the woods near the crime scene on the afternoon the bodies were discovered. You all are free to speculate all you want to about these mysterious photographs.


The rumor mill has not been particularly active other than one main source that does not appear very credible.

Rumors: Unfortunately, many rumors have been going on about Mike Patty, the adopted father of Liberty German, accusing him of either committing this crime or being involved in it. This rumor states that Mike refused to give DNA. It also says that a detective working on the case recently visited Anna Williams and told her that he suspected Mike Patty was involved. The detective also stated that he had followed Mike Patty and family to Disney World recently.  In addition, the detective said that LE suspects that the Delphi Murders involved two different people. The rumor also said that Mike Patty is under surveillance and has been for a long time. Mostly not credible.

We have gone over many people in this investigation, and indeed Mike was a suspect early on. We went over him like a fine tooth comb and looked inside and out, up and down and all over the man. Sometimes I think we know more about Mike than he knows about himself. However, we did the same thing with a number of other people. Nevertheless, it was not long before we abandoned him.

However, some people would not stop plugging him. I had one man who was so insistent that Mike was the killer that he would not stop emailing me with his theories and sleuthing (which he did a good job of) of Mike. I eventually told him to stop because he was bothering me, and I thought Mike was innocent. We have ~200 people in our group, and I do not think anyone suspects Mike Patty anymore. So far, our verdict is: Mike Patty is innocent of this crime.

Rumor: Detective visited Anna Williams and gave her details about the investigation. Possibly credible, but there are problems with as detectives are not supposed to do that.

Rumor: Detective stated that they are looking at two people for the murders. Possibly credible. Perhaps they do have two suspects. Or maybe they have just one. This is still up in the air at this point.

Rumor: Detective followed Mike Patty and family to Disney World to tail them. Not credible. We don’t believe that this detective or any LE followed them down there.

Rumor: Mike Patty is under surveillance and has been for a long time. Not credible. We simply do not feel that he is under investigation as a suspect in this crime.

Rumor: LE think that Mike Patty was in on these murders. Not credible. As I said, we think he’s innocent, and we believe that LE thinks he is innocent too.

I apologize for forwarding these rumors, but they are flying around a lot and, at the very least, they need to be debunked. As if poor Mike Patty did not have enough to worry about!

And this is a bit off-topic, but as we got to know them via the media and friends, we think that Mike and Becky Patty are two very good people and they have handled themselves well through this ordeal. Becky has been particularly helpful.

Rumors about the Murders

Warning: These rumors are gruesome. Nevertheless, they are very pertinent and need to be dealt with. After all, this is a homicide case. Don’t you think the murderer’s method in the murders is important? It’s one of the most important parts of any homicide case.

Rumor: Both girls had their throats badly cut and were nearly decapitated. Partially credible, but sadly it does appear true for one poor girl. Incidentally, a wound like that is something that you might expect with a garrote rather than a knife.

Rumor: The girls were killed by garroting. Possibly credible. This one has been around before, but now it has a lot more momentum. One of the wounds is compatible with this theory. Also we think that BG may have a spool in his right pants pocket. You can wrap fishing line around a spool like that, and 40 pound test fishing line would make an excellent garroting weapon. However, we have no conclusions about garroting in this crime. Maybe it was done, maybe it was not. Knives were certainly used though.

Rumor: One girl’s head was badly bashed in in the back with a heavy object, possibly a rock. Unknown credibility. This is the second time we have heard this one, and we don’t know what to think of it. This rumor has very little momentum, and we have just heard a peep here and there. The heavier rumors tend to be more credible than the scarce ones. We simply don’t know if this is true or not. However, our question would be whether a wound like this would have been visible on the girl’s head at the open casket. Also one of the men who discovered the bodies did not mention this type of wound, and we think he might have.

More Pregnancy Rumors

I told you to buckle your seat belts because here we go with this one again. Presently, we believe that neither girl was pregnant.

Rumors: Liberty German was in the very early stages of pregnancy. She had told Abby. Abby’s mother, Anna Williams, knew because Abby told her. Anna Williams currently states that Liberty German was pregnant. Becky Patty never knew. She only found out later when she was going through Liberty’s things. As far as why Becky denies it, she is supposedly in denial. As you can see, this rumor is back, and this time it is quite power-packed with a lot of specific information. Not credible.

Liberty was not pregnant and never told anyone she was. Anna Williams never said Liberty was pregnant. Becky didn’t discover evidence of pregnancy later when going through Liberty’s things.

I apologize for bringing up this pregnancy rumor again, but if these rumors are flying around, at the very least, they need to be falsified.

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Filed under Crime, Law enforcement, Midwest, Regional, Science, USA

The Coming War on Lebanon: Israel, Saudi Arabia, and U.S. Prepare Long-Planned Middle East War

Great article from Global Research. I am not sure if this war is actually going to happen. Israel’s apparent causus belli for the war is because they say that Iran has built a missile factory in Lebanon. Iran has indeed built a missile factory in Lebanon. I am not sure where it is and why Israel cannot take it out. Maybe it is underground. I would guess that it is in the Bekaa Valley.

The missile count for Hezbollah is not correct. Hezbollah actually 150,000 missiles aimed at Israel. There are reports that only six of those are precision-guided, but that is not correct. I don’t know how many precision-guided missiles they have, but they have a lot more than six.

The Lebanese Army is not very good. The effective army of Lebanon is Hezbollah. That is why they had 85% support in a recent poll in Lebanon. A recent move by Hezbollah to consolidate power among itself and its allies in the Parliament actually had the support of 47% of Lebanese Christians. Hezbollah is in an alliance with, among others, General Aoun’s Christian faction. As you can see, Lebanon is a lot more complex than Christians versus Muslims. 

The real enemies of Hezbollah are the Lebanese Sunnis around President Hariri. Recently he went to Saudi Arabia, and the Saudis, with a go-ahead from the US, actually kidnapped him and forced him to stay in Arabia. They also demanded that he resign from the Presidency. He resigned so they would let him go, but when he got back to Lebanon, he withdrew his resignation and once again assumed his position.

The Saudis think that Lebanon is their bitch, but they are wrong. The Hariri faction does not have wide support in Lebanon – maybe 20-25% support. The Saudis were trying to provoke a crisis in Lebanon by having Hariri resign. This might set off internal conflict in Lebanon, which the Saudis want, or it might have been to cause a crisis as an excuse to attack Lebanon. “Hariri Resigns, Calls Lebanon a Hezbollah Dictatorship” would be the headlines, and then the US, Israel or Arabia would use that as a go-ahead to be humanitarian bombers and attack Lebanon “to restore democracy.”

Make no mistake about it, the Saudis want Hezbollah gone. They also want Iran dead and gone. Neither is going anywhere soon.

Iran, Hezbollah (Lebanon), and Syria form the Axis of Resistance. These are the only three official state enemies that Israel has left. They’ve taken out Libya and Iraq. If the Houthis win in Yemen, they might join the Axis of Resistance also. The Gulf states are not friendly to Israel, but Israel does not regard them as enemy states. They even have a long term alliance with the Saudis. Israel has a peace treaty with Jordan and Egypt. However, popular opinion in both countries is dead set against Israel, but both are dictatorships that do not represent popular will.

The Israel-hostile Muslim Brotherhood was replaced by a secular dictator supported by the US, Israel, and the Saudis. The Saudis hate the Muslim Brotherhood because they see them as rivals who want to rule Saudi Arabia. Doctrinally, there is not much difference between the two. I believe Qatar dislikes the MB also for the same reason. The MB is huge in Jordan and occupies many seats in  Parliament. Hamas is the MB of  Palestine, but they never talk about that because Palestine is quite secular, and the MB is not popular there for that reason. The MB is big among Sunnis in Northern Lebanon. Of course they have always been huge in Egypt – their birthplace. Hassan al-Banna created the MB in Egypt in 1928.

Lebanon as a state absolutely hates Israel. They have no relations with them, and the two are officially still at war, as Israel never signed an armistice with Lebanon in 1949. Libya has been neutralized as a state and is no threat to Israel. The new government of Tunisia is saying that they want diplomatic relations with Israel, and this is setting off huge demonstrations in Tunisia. Algeria is not friendly with Israel, but they are no threat either. The same is true in Morocco.

Turkey is also unfriendly, but they are no threat either, and they have been working closely with the Israelis in Syria. Israeli and Turkish intelligence were embedded in Al Qaeda in Syria, along with US, Saudi, and UAE intelligence. If you recall back when Aleppo was finally being liberated, there were intense negotiations going on at the end because there were some allied intelligence officers who had taken refuge in the last holdouts of the city. This included 10-12 US intelligence agents who were embedded in Syrian Al Qaeda.

A lot of people in the region are playing a very dirty game these days!

This previously published article (December 2017) on Global Research reveals the well-calculated plan of the US, Israel and Saudi Arabia on inciting a “civil war” in Lebanon to defeat Hezbollah. 

Israel – seemingly leading the squad with the green signal from Washington – has just fabricated yet another grounds for war. 


Washington’s plan to oust Syrian President Bashar al-Assad has ultimately failed. Now Lebanon seems to be in the cross-hairs with tensions between Israel and Hezbollah on the same level that led to the 2006 Lebanon war. There is also the possibility that a new offensive against Syria that might take place as Washington maintains its troop levels in the devastated country caused by ISIS and other terrorists groups they supported. Various reports suggests that the Pentagon may reveal that there are close to 2,000 U.S. troops stationed in Syria even though ISIS has been defeated. So why is Washington staying in Syria? Will there be another attempt to overthrow Syrian President Bashar al-Assad in the near future? Most likely, yes. Adding the Trump administration’s continued hostilities towards Iran, the drumbeats of a new war in the Middle East is loud and clear.

Israel, Saudi Arabia and the U.S. have one main objective at the moment and that is to destabilize Lebanon and attempt to defeat Hezbollah before they prepare for another offensive in Syria to remove Assad from power. Before they declare an all-out war on Iran, they must neutralize their allies, Hezbollah and Syria, which is by far an extremely difficult task to accomplish.

The Israeli government knows that it cannot defeat Hezbollah without sacrificing both its military and civilian populations. Israel needs the U.S. military for added support if their objective is to somewhat succeed. Israel and the U.S. can continue its support of ISIS and other terrorist groups to create a new civil war in Lebanon through false-flag terror operations which in a strategic sense, can lead to an internal civil war.

Can Hezbollah and the Lebanese military prevent terrorist groups from entering its territory? So far they have been successful in defeating ISIS on the Lebanon-Syria border and will most likely be successful in preventing a new U.S.-supported terrorist haven in Lebanon. Lebanon’s Prime Minister Saad Hariri who originally resigned from his post while visiting the Saudi Kingdom and then suspended his resignation is a sign that a political crisis has been set in motion. So what happens next?

The Curse: Lebanon’s Natural Resources and the Greater Israel Project

In the case of a devastating war on Lebanon, with a civil war intact, Israel would surely attempt to take control over Lebanon’s natural resources. Since Trump got in the White House, Israel has expanded its Jewish settlements through land seizures throughout Palestine at unprecedented levels and with the occupation of the Golan Heights (a Syrian territory), they already control a portion of oil, gas, and vital water supplies. Lebanon would be a huge bonus.

In 2013, Lebanese Energy Minister Gebran Bassil estimated that Lebanon has around 96 trillion cubic feet of natural gas reserves and 865 million barrels of oil offshore. With Lebanon’s political chaos and Israel preparing for a long-term war with Hezbollah, all of this leads to Israel Shahak’s The Zionist Plan for the Middle East which states the intended goal for the fragmentation of Lebanon and other adversaries in the Middle East:

3) This is not a new idea, nor does it surface for the first time in Zionist strategic thinking. Indeed, fragmenting all Arab states into smaller units has been a recurrent theme. This theme has been documented on a very modest scale in the AAUG publication Israel’s Sacred Terrorism (1980), by Livia Rokach. Based on the memoirs of Moshe Sharett, former Prime Minister of Israel, Rokach’s study documents, in convincing detail, the Zionist plan as it applies to Lebanon and as it was prepared in the mid-fifties.

4) The first massive Israeli invasion of Lebanon in 1978 bore this plan out to the minutest detail. The second and more barbaric and encompassing Israeli invasion of Lebanon on June 6, 1982, aims to effect certain parts of this plan which hopes to see not only Lebanon but Syria and Jordan as well in fragments. 

This ought to make mockery of Israeli public claims regarding their desire for a strong and independent Lebanese central government. More accurately, they want a Lebanese central government that sanctions their regional imperialist designs by signing a peace treaty with them. They also seek acquiescence in their designs by the Syrian, Iraqi, Jordanian, and other Arab governments as well as by the Palestinian people. What they want and what they are planning for is not an Arab world, but a world of Arab fragments that is ready to succumb to Israeli hegemony. Hence, Oded Yinon in his essay, “A Strategy for Israel in the 1980’s,” talks about “far-reaching opportunities for the first time since 1967” that are created by the “very stormy situation [that] surrounds Israel. 

Israel is gearing up for a long and devastating war against Hezbollah, an Iranian-ally which is based in Lebanon’s southern region to deter Israel’s expansionist ideas. As Saudi Arabia (Israel’s closest ally in the region) continues its immoral and devastating war on Yemen, it is raising tensions with Iran. According to Thomas L. Friedman’s article Saudi Arabia’s Arab Spring, At Last praising who he calls “M.B.S.” or Saudi Arabia’s Crown Prince, Mohammed bin Salman, for his reformist policies. According to Friedman: 

“Iran’s “supreme leader is the new Hitler of the Middle East,” said M.B.S. “But we learned from Europe that appeasement doesn’t work. We don’t want the new Hitler in Iran to repeat what happened in Europe in the Middle East.”

The Trump administration’s continued support of the Saudi Monarchy which negotiated an arms deal worth billions has only emboldened the Saudi government to take an aggressive stand towards its adversaries in the Middle East namely, Iran.

Lebanon Prepares for Another War

On November 21st, Reuters published an article titled Lebanon army chief warns of Israel threat amid political crisis based on Lebanon’s Army Chief warning his troops to be on high alert concerning Israel’s aggressive behavior along the southern border. It was reported: 

“Lebanon’s army chief told his soldiers on Tuesday to be extra vigilant to prevent unrest during political turmoil after the prime minister quit, and accused Israel of “aggressive” intentions across the southern frontier” despite Lebanon’s Prime Minister Saad Hariri’s return to Lebanon and decision to put his resignation on hold.

The army’s Twitter account quoted the Lebanese Army’s Commander General Joseph Aoun who said:

“Troops should be ready to “thwart any attempt to exploit the current circumstances for stirring strife” and that “the exceptional political situation that Lebanon is going through requires you to exercise the highest levels of awareness.”

Israel understands that a defeat against Hezbollah and the Lebanese military will be absolutely difficult to accomplish, therefore preparations to engage Hezbollah this time will be an effort to create as much damage as possible and reduce their military capabilities, maybe in time for U.S. troops to enter the war through Syria and coordinate targets with the Israel Defense Forces (IDF). As I mentioned earlier, and may I add with an interesting choice of words, a report published by Reuters on November 24th suggests that the Pentagon might announce how many troops they have in Syria:

Two U.S. officials, speaking on the condition of anonymity, said the Pentagon could as early as Monday publicly announce that there are slightly more than 2,000 U.S. troops in Syria. They said there was always a possibility that last minute changes in schedules could delay an announcement. That is not an increase in troop numbers, just a more accurate count, as the numbers often fluctuate.

A War That No One Will Win 

The Council of Foreign Relations (CFR), an establishment think-tank based in New York City published an article on July 30th of this year by neocon warmonger Eliot Abrams who was a deputy assistant and deputy national security adviser for President George W. Bush titled The Next Israel-Hezbollah Conflict admits that “the next war is a war that will not be “won” by Israel or Hezbollah.”

Abrams said that “Israel’s realistic war aims will not match the damage it will suffer—and the damage it will necessarily inflict” in reference to a strategic assessment by a report by Israel’s Institute for National Security Studies titled Political and Military Contours of the Next Conflict with Hezbollah by Gideon Sa’ar, an Israeli politician and a former Likud member of the Knesset, and Ron Tira, a strategist, Israeli Air Force officer and pilot, highlights what Israel’s realistic goals should be:

Israel’s objectives in a future conflict will be derived first and foremost from what it wants to achieve in the distinct context (such as, for example, preventing Hezbollah’s buildup of certain qualitative edge capabilities or preventing deployment of high quality Iranian weapon systems in Syria).

But a review of the fundamental data reveals a few “generic” objectives that could be applicable in many contexts: postponing the following conflict, shaping the rules for the routine times that will follow the conflict, increasing deterrence with respect to Hezbollah and third parties, undermining the attractiveness of Hezbollah’s war paradigm (use of rockets and missiles hidden among the civilian population), preserving Israel’s relations with its allies, and creating the conditions to reduce Iranian involvement in the post-war reconstruction of Lebanon, as well as imposing new and enforceable restrictions on the freedom of access of the Iran-Alawite-Hezbollah axis.

The strategic assessment mentioned what realistic goals Israel can achieve when the conflict takes place according to the assessment:

There is only a limited range of “positive” and achievable objectives that Israel can hope to attain from Hezbollah and from Lebanon. While the purpose of an armed conflict is always political, in many contexts it is hard to find a political objective that is both meaningful and achievable at a reasonable cost, and that is the reason for the basic lack of value that can be found in an Israel- Hezbollah military conflict. 

The reason that an Israeli defeat over Hezbollah is impossible according to Mr. Abrams’s conclusion is because of Russia’s presence in the region:

That’s because Russia cannot be expelled, Lebanon will remain roughly half-Shia, and Hezbollah will survive—as will its relationship with Iran. After the war, the best assumption would be that Hezbollah will rebuild as it did after 2006. But Hezbollah would achieve nothing positive in such a conflict, suffering immense damage and bringing immense destruction upon Lebanon. Its only possible “gain” is the damage it would inflict on Israel. In a way this is the only “good news.”

Israel’s Economy During Wartime

David Rosenberg’s opinion piece Israel’s Next War: We Ain’t Seen Nothing Yet on the 2014 Israel-Gaza Conflict in the Israel-based news source Haaretz explains the consequences of war and how it effects Israel’s economy. Rosenberg said that:

 In 2014, the missile war wasn’t a threat so much as a spectacle, as Israelis watched Iron Dome missiles bring down Qassam rockets, to applause. Score one for the home team.

However, Rosenberg claims that the next war with Hezbollah will be different, in fact it will effect Israel’s economy in several ways:

The next war isn’t going to look like that. The round figure everyone uses for Hezbollah’s missile arsenal is 100,000. That is a suspiciously round figure and is probably wrong, but no one disputes that the Shiite militia is well-armed, and more importantly, many of its missiles carry much more powerful warheads and are much more accurate than they were in 2006. Hezbollah’s arsenal includes attack drones and coast-to-sea missiles, too. For its part, Israel is also better prepared. Iron Dome, which is designed to bring down short-range rockets, has been complemented by the introduction of the David’s Sling and Arrow systems, designed to intercept long-range rockets and ballistic missiles, respectively. 

But against an onslaught of thousands of missiles, no Domes, Slings or Arrows will be able to provide the kind of defense Israelis have grown used to. Israel’s infrastructure and economic activity are vulnerable to even a limited missile attack from Hezbollah. Geographically, Israel is a small country with no hinterland, which means facilities for electric power and water are concentrated in small areas. More than a quarter of electric power is generated at just two sites. Natural gas is produced at a single offshore field and delivered via a single pipeline. A large portion of our exports derive from a single industrial plant. A prolonged missile war will almost certainly bring business to a halt.

Israel’s economy will shrink within a short-time period, according to Rosenberg:

In the worst-case scenario, a post-war Israel would no longer be seen by global investors and businesses as a safe place to put their money and do deals. Imagine Startup Nation without the constant flow of cross-border capital and mergers and acquisitions. The fantasy land of the last 11 years would disappear in a matter of days or weeks.

Rosenberg is correct. For example, during the 2014 Israel-Gaza Conflict, Israel was faced with economic uncertainties. The Times of Israel published an article during the conflict with an appropriate title War depresses people, economy; strong shekel harmful clarified what experts said on how the economy would be effected during a “drawn-out” conflict:

Experts temper the pessimism by noting that in the past, the Israeli economy has been resilient. If the current conflict is resolved quickly, there may be little cause for concern. On the other hand, a drawn out conflict in Gaza may cause investors to worry about the country’s stability and could cause long term damage to Israel’s reputation and position as a key player in the global economy. 

“Our key concerns are the openness of the Israeli economy and our ability to be a key player in the global markets,” Zvi Eckstein, former deputy governor of the Bank of Israel and dean of the School of Economics at the Interdisciplinary Center (IDC). Herzliya noted in an interview with The Times of Israel. “It’s really still a key uncertainty how the conflict will end up,” said Eckstein. “Most people predict we will get back to the same relatively stable geopolitical situation as we were in early July, and if so, I would say the economy would rebound back later next year. But if not, the threat to Israel’s economy would be quite devastating.”

That conflict was against a weaker adversary, Hamas. For starters, a war with Hezbollah, Lebanon, and Syria however would have a negative impact on Israel’s tourism industry where it receives more than 3 million tourists (mainly from the U.S. and Europe) per year. Israel’s level of production will also take a hit. The Street published an interesting article How Is Israel’s Economy Affected by the Current War? explaining what happened to Israel’s economy during the 2014 Israel-Gaza Conflict:

The Israeli economy suffers directly from reductions in productivity every time missile alert sirens send the country’s residents into bomb shelters. The economic costs of the war are estimated upwards of $2.9 billion, and already the war has soaked up 1.2% of the GDP. In the event that quiet prevails after a ceasefire is reached, the Israeli economy is resilient enough to withstand the costs of this operation.

History reflects that the Israeli economy surged at a rate of 6% prior to the 2006 Lebanon war and then slowed down to 2.9% prior to this current conflict. The tourism sector is going to be particularly hard hit, and if a third Intifada ensues, the economic costs for Israel could be crippling. Since a big chunk of Israel’s workforce is enlisted in the IDF, productivity declines are widespread and costs are mounting. The IMA (Israel Manufacturers Association) has already listed a figure of $240 million in losses as a result of the war effort.

Another War, Another Tragedy

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Israel, Saudi Arabia, and the U.S. want to permanently eliminate the Iran-Syria-Hezbollah alliance, and to achieve that goal, Lebanon will have to become another Libya, causing more chaos in an already volatile situation. The only beneficiaries in this coming war are Israel and the U.S., if of course, they are victorious. The U.S. and their allies would re-establish themselves as the hegemonic power in the Middle East with absolute control over the natural resources including oil, gas, and water. Israel would also expand and conquer more territory for Greater Israel. Saudi Arabia would remain a vassal state with more political leverage over its neighbors.

And if Saudi Arabia foolishly decided to go to war with Iran, the House of Saud will inevitably collapse, since Iran is much more stronger, militarily speaking. Washington plans to keep its military presence in Syria are a signal that removing Assad from power is still on the agenda. Saudi Arabia, Israel, and the Trump administration (decertifying the Iran Nuclear Deal with the intention to eventually kill the deal) is a recipe for a planned long-term conflict. Israel’s economy would suffer a major setback if they were to launch an attack against Hezbollah.

Besides, the fact that a war against Hezbollah would mean that missiles would constantly strike within Israel creating a massive amount of stress on Israeli citizens and a downturn of the economy would only add another dimension to the wide-reaching full-scale war. Israel hopes that Hezbollah will be temporally neutralized until the U.S. Congress and the Trump Administration jointly approve another military and economic aid package worth billions in time to continue its wars. Then there is the possibility of a joint U.S., Saudi Arabia, and Israeli orchestrated attack on Syria to remove Assad from power to ultimately isolate Iran, but with Russia and China backing Iran, it would be a no-win situation.  The biggest loser in all of its foreign policy blunders is the U.S., Israel, and Saudi Arabia.

Israel’s plan to launch more aggressive wars against its neighbors to further an expansionist objective would come at a great cost to Israeli citizens, as their economy sinks into the rabbit hole, and the threat of incoming missiles from southern Lebanon makes it that much more worst. Lebanon and to an extent Israel will be once again devastated by a new war. For both sides of the border, it is a formula for disastrous consequences.

This article was originally published by Silent Crow News.

Featured image is from the author.


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