Why Trump Cannot Win

Two words:  Electoral college.

People who keep insisting that Trump is going to win just don’t get it. Not only can Trump not win, but it is highly likely that no Republican can win the US Presidency in the forseeable future. This is because US elections are decided based on the Electoral College tallies and not the popular vote. And the country, believe it or not, has been getting more and more liberal over the last 20-30 years.

There is now a solid wall of blue states that have voted for a Democratic for President for the last 20+ years. Some states go back further than that and have not voted Republican in thirty years. California is an excellent example. Look at how California has been voting for the President for the last 35 years, and while you are at it, look at who we have been voting for for Governor.

That solid wall of blue has 238 delegates. I do not believe that Trump can crack even one state out of that solid blue. That would almost be like California voting for Trump. Not going to happen.

So Hillary has 238 electoral votes before the election has even happened. She only needs 270 to win. She needs only 32 more electoral votes, and she’s won.

There are 12 swing states. Hillary now leads in nine of the 12 swing states. Nine of the 12! Trump would have to win all of the red stares (which he can probably do) and on top of that, I believe that he has to win all of the swing states. That’s right. All 12 of them. Guess what? That’s not going to happen.

Because the country as a whole is getting so much more liberal and Democratic in recent years and due to the massive Blue Wall that has sprung up in the Electoral College, it is hard to see how the Republican Party can win a Presidential election in the forseeable future. Probably the only future for the Republican Party is to move left with the rest of the country. The Republican Party will probably have to become a much more liberal party than it is now if it wants to win another election. Unfortunately for them, they seem to be moving in the opposite direction.

38 Comments

Filed under California, Democrats, Government, Liberalism, Political Science, Politics, Regional, Republicans, US Politics, USA, West

38 responses to “Why Trump Cannot Win

  1. Jason Y

    Only in the freak case of another 9/11 which could happen.

    • TJF

      To Jason Y:
      Only in the freak case of another 9/11 which could happen.

      Not necessarily, 9/11 helped the incumbent party’s status. Unless there was a egregious error on the part of the Obama administration – I think another 9/11 even could possibly even help Hillary’s chances. The only thing I think could put Trump into office would be another financial meltdown a la’ 2008 – which I don’t see on the horizon.

  2. Ed

    Who do you think will win the nationwide popular vote, Trump or Clinton?

    What is the percentage chance, out of 100%, of Trump winning the nationwide popular vote as opposed to Clinton winning?

    Can Clinton win in the Electoral College if Trump wins the popular vote? If so, how small does Trump’s margin have to be.

    Start with this.

    • Another William Playfair Web

      well, theoretically someone could win the electoral college with, assuming the Electors vote based on the popular vote in their (state) with a majority in many small states (get a boost by the 2 votes they automatically get, not relative to population), so I’d say; up to the point where they should get say, 1.01 reps, instead of 1, and beyond, and using this (advantage still stays, for “beyond”)link;http://www.enchantedlearning.com/usa/states/population.shtml and using 270 to win interactive map, I’d say that one could win all the states on the first link up to New Jersey, but then taking out Kentucky, and get 270 electoral votes, and then taking away 37 states x 2 senators= 270-74= 196/436 House districts, and winning basically half of that (winning each by one vote, winning none in others) one could theoretically win 98.1/436= 0.225 or 22.5% (or a little less because some states don’t “deserve” a whole rep.)of the popular vote, NOT COUNTING THIRD PARTY CANDIDATES.

      • Another William Playfair Web

        basically, according to that, it’s possible with about 22% of the popular vote, (assuming no third parties), at this point to win the electoral college.
        I suspect Hillary will win far more than that (polling is accurate because the Dem/Rep. ratio is accurate)….

    • Hasdrubal

      You can’t lose women by 10 points and Hispanics by 40 and win a national election and both those numbers are very optimistic for Trump.
      He could lose Women by 20 points and Hispanics by 80. Trump is such a dumpster fire he is putting the very heavily gerrymandered in favor of the GOP house in play. Given the choice between Tracy Flick and a short fingered vulgarian, the country will go with Tracy Flick.

      • Waltem

        White women don’t lean towards Hillary to the extent as pretended by pundits. Hispanics are also more diverse than pundits pretend.

        • Another William Playfair Web

          yes, they are, but Trump and his posse of ex-Neo-Cons (i.e. Mann Coulter, maybe you could throw Pat Buchanan in there) have not exactly been kind to White Hispanics either (or Black/Asian for that matter) they, at the very least do shit upon the language (Spanish) of these people.

      • Another William Playfair Web

        yes, if Hispanics are about 10% of the electorate, him going from Romney’s 30% to 0% is a 6 point swing…but as I examined before (somewhere recent) it appears he’s polling about even with Romney among non-Whites as a whole (he’s actually gonna get about 15% of Hispanics) which means, assuming Asians vote the same as Hispanics, and Drumpf’s at 79% if Asians+Hispanics are 11% at 15% and POC are overall at 6%, he’s getting 15+2(6)= or about 27% of Blacks.

        Trump/Ben Carson 2016

  3. Jason Y

    A lot of right wing whites, including just regular Republican types might deep down want some kind of dicatorship. That would put them on top, even though democracy would say democrats would rule forever. Maybe some terror situation might play out into some kind of scheme involving Trump.

    Think about it. They don’t have a choice. There has to be either leaving the USA to form a seperate white state, even for Republicans, or minority rule, the minority in this case being Republican and racist white people.

    • Jason Y

      Democracy anyhow means less to Republicans and far right racists because since they think a large group of people is inferior, they don’t respect their vote.

  4. James Schipper

    Dear Robert

    A lot can happen between now and November. Hillary is not a strong candidate and not a very likable person. What Trump has to do is to get a lot of non-voters to vote for him. Mitt Romney, a very weak candidate, managed to receive 47.2% of the popular vote. Trump could very well improve on that. Of course, as you pointed out, winning the electoral college is not the same as winning the popular vote. We’ll see.

    Regards. James

  5. Ed

    I checked Wikipedia. In 2012 the Democratic Presidential candidate defeated the Republican presidential candidate by a 3.9% popular vote margin, 51.1% to 47.2%. The electoral votes were 332 to 206, a margin of 126 electoral votes.

    Ignore who the candidates are for the sake of argument. The conventions haven’t been held yet anyway. Just take a generic Democrat running against a generic Republican. If there is a 2% swing, the Republican does just 2% better, and the Democrat just 2% worse, then the Republican wins the nationa popular vote, 49.2% to 49.1%.

    Looking at this state by state, if this result happens evenly in every state, the generic Republican wins all the Romney states, plus three Obama states: Florida, Ohio (suprise, surprise), and Virginia. These are the states Obama won by less than 4%. Their electoral votes total to 60, so the generic Democrat would still win in the Electoral College, by 272 votes to 266.

    Give the Republican an additional 0.4% and the Democrat 0.4% less, than the Republican carries another state and that six vote margin is erased.

    So yeah, I guess the Democrats have an Electoral College advantage, in that they have a good chance of still winning in the Electoral College if they lose popular vote by less than 1%. And that actually has been the case in every election. Going state by state and totaling up electoral votes turns out to really only matter if the popular vote margin is less than 1%. There are good reasons connected with statistics and probability for this.

  6. Onfr

    Robert, have you considered this? Many voters are maybe afraid to admit they will vote for Trump, even in anonymous polls. Look how every mainstream media is against him and even how many Republicans are against him.

    What happened in Britain? Every ‘acceptable’ media was against Brexit and some voters too were afraid to admit they would vote for Brexit. I bet that in France, people don’t report voting for Le Pen in polls, in Germany, people don’t report voting for AfD in polls and so on.

  7. Ed

    What you are really saying is that Hillary Clinton will defeat Donald Trump at the polls because she is more popular than Trump is. More people want her to become President. That is all you are saying.

    But you did not make the argument until challenged in the comments. You hid it behind all this pseudosophisticated Electoral College nonsense.

  8. Waltem

    You seem to be neglecting the issues of Hillary’s ability to draw White voters (she got a noticeably lower amount of White voters in the the latest primaries and caucases compared with ’08’s) and lower Black primary turnout from ’08.

    • That’s because a lot of Whites supported Sanders instead. Those Sanders voters will not vote for Trump. Only 8% of Sanders voters will vote Trump. I figure almost all of the Sanders voters will come home for Hillary. Sanders voters despise Trump.

  9. Gay State Girl

    I don’t think Hillary will bring out the masses. Even her supporters are somewhat lukewarm.

    • Another William Playfair Web

      She’ll win, but she’s going to have to fight for it, it’s by no means guaranteed. I heard on the radio today the website 270 to win/ 538 did a comprehensive analysis of polls in pretty much all states and gave Hillary “75% to 80% odds of winning”. hmmm……………

  10. Big G

    If the demos keep pushing gun control the Republicans will win. The only republican to win any contested government seat anywhere was over the gun issue.

    • Another William Playfair Web

      certainly does cut into support of battlegrounds like Iowa, Virginia, N.C.

      In W.V. that and coal are we are reddening by the hour.

  11. SHI

    Fatass Michael Moore predicts that it will be President Trump all the way. Pretty interesting.

    http://michaelmoore.com/trumpwillwin/

    • SHI

      Here’s one more column.

      http://michaelmoore.com/MakeSureTrumpLoses/

      I’m beginning to love FATASS. He’s soooooo NOT complacent, proving poll pundits wrong with his unique and exceptional insights, such as:

      So instead of feeling better this week because of the new polls (BTW, only one of these polls is of “likely voters” – the Reuters Poll – and in that one, Hillary leads by only 4 points), or regaling over Trump’s insanity (so insane, he raised $82 million last month in mostly $10-$20 contributions, stunning the Clinton campaign, because Bernie never had a grassroots month anywhere near that), I would like to suggest a different response.

      • SHI

        It gets even more hilarious. The “Breitbart Youth” are having a field day roasting the piggie (i.e. Moore) on a spitfire.

        http://www.breitbart.com/big-hollywood/2016/07/21/watch-michael-moore-think-trump-going-win/

        “This loose and obese SOB must have some Trump documentary about to come out. Nothing better than major free media on the back of Trump.” – i.own.agent.smith

        “I have no doubt whatsoever that Fat Boi WANTS Trump to win. Fat Boi has a lot more
        to bitch about (and make money from) when a Republican is President.”
        – Adam Bricker

        “If Trump wins, will the left keep their promises of moving to Canada or France?” – Roccolore

        “Kinda wish ole Jabba the Hut hadn’t said anything. Now any liberal with a brain will come up with something really devious to knock Trump down. Wait. Liberal with a brain? Nevermind. Keep up the doomsday speeches, Jabba!” – Amy Wilson….heh heh, this was funny.

        ““Boo if you want,” Maher told the crowd, adding that “the enemy is complacency….”

        “This is Mr. Moore’s call for voter fraud. We will see a lot of fraud in the upcoming election, including hundreds of thousands of non-citizens voting.” – Greg

        “Well, NOW I’m worried. Michael Moore has never been right about anything…” – FreeMarketMaven

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