Swing State Election Forecast

Swing states include states like Colorado, Nevada, New Mexico, Iowa, Wisconsin, Michigan, Ohio, Pennsylvania, New Hampshire, Virginia, North Carolina and Florida.

Nevada and New Mexico are Western states that were former Republican strongholds, but have gone over to Democratic in recent years. Most of this is due to more Hispanics in those states. Hillary will win both states.

Colorado is a bit more red, but it is also getting more Democratic. Colorado was former hard conservative Western state, but it’s changed. This is also due in large part to a growing Hispanic population. This state is very much up in the air, and Trump is leading at the moment. It will be a challenge for Hillary to win here, and Trump may well win Colorado. The percentage of gun nuts in this Wild West state is very high.

Iowa has also been trending Democratic. Reasons are not known. Hillary will probably win, but it may be quite close.

Wisconsin has been trending heavily Democratic for some time now. Hillary will win this state handily. Hillary is not even spending one nickel on ads here now because she knows it is in the bag.

Michigan has also been getting more more Democratic lately, and Hillary will win here easily. Hillary is not buying any ads here either.

Ohio is very much up in the air. This is another state that has been trending Democratic lately. Hillary has been ahead in the polls by 4-5 points though. This state could probably go either way.

Pennsylvania has not voted for a Republican in nearly 30 years. Polls show a close race, but Hillary is not spending one nickel on ads here yet. Hillary’s campaign says their internals show a much better race for Hillary. Apparently Hillary thinks she has it in the bag. Pennsylvania as a whole has been getting more Republican if you go county by county, especially in the east and center of the state. However these rural counties are not heavily populated.

The problem with Pennsylvania for Republicans is Pittsburgh and especially Philadelphia. Most of the state’s population lives in these large urban centers that are heavily minority. Philly in particular has a huge Black population. The Democratic votes in the cities should easily outweigh the rural red counties. Hillary should win Pennsylvania.

New Hampshire was long famous for being a conservative state, but it has been voting Democratic in recent years also. Hillary will easily win this state.

Virginia is very much a swing state. This was long a conservative Republican stronghold, the capital of the Confederacy. However, many Northerners have been moving down there in recent years, changing the state. This is very nearly a blue or Democratic state now. It’s incredible. Hillary will most probably win Virginia, but it will be close.

North Carolina is very much up in the air. This state was a conservative red state for a very long time. However, it is now moving towards the Democratic Party, but it is not all the way there yet. This is because many young hipsters have been moving down there for the good jobs to be had in the region, especially in the Research Triangle, where many high tech firms have moved.

It seems hard to believe that the state of Jesse Helms is now moving Democratic. The state is now flip-flopping back and forth between voting for Democrats and voting for Republicans. The state government is still very conservative. This was where the famous transgender bathroom bill was passed recently. This will be a very close race, and it could easily go either way.

Florida is the ultimate swing state and has been flipping back and forth between Democratic and Republican votes for President for the last 20 years. I have no information how the state was voting before then. If anyone knows, please tell me.

Northern Florida is like the US South and is very conservative. The center of the state is very mixed, and the south is also also a very mixed bag.

Many Jews from the Northeast have been moving down to Southern Florida to retire. These people vote Democrat. The state also has a very large Black population, especially in the northern part of the state. South Florida is very Hispanic but these Hispanics are conservative as they are mostly Cubans. Cubans have long voted Republican, but a lot of the younger ones are voting Democrat. There are also large populations of rightwing Venezuelans and Nicaraguans living here who fled leftwing regimes. However, there are also many Haitians here, and they vote Democrat. There are many Puerto Ricans in the center of the state, especially around Orlando. They vote Democratic.

This state will be incredibly close as it has been since at least 2000. The state government is run by Republicans, and there are major voter suppression efforts underway. Florida is completely up in the air and could go either way.

11 Comments

Filed under Blacks, Colorado, Conservatism, Cubans, Democrats, Florida, Haitians, Hispanics, Iowa, Jews, Michigan, Midwest, Nevada, New Mexico, Nicaraguans, North Carolina, Northeast, Political Science, Politics, Puerto Ricans, Race/Ethnicity, Regional, Republicans, South, US Politics, USA, West, Wisconsin

11 responses to “Swing State Election Forecast

  1. Pingback: Why Trump Cannot Win | Beyond Highbrow - Robert Lindsay

  2. Another William Playfair Web

    he has to do well in the “rust belt”
    if the election was tomorrow, it would be 2012, except Trump wins Ohio where Romney did not.
    That would be 311 to 227.
    The polls are accurate, before the trumpkins start, the 51-35 ratio of Repubs to Dems is reflective of the nation as a whole (who instilled “50-50” in your small heads?)

  3. Another William Playfair Web

    For instance, if Clinton wins by 5, and Obama won by four, you could say every state won by Romney by less than 1% would go to Clinton (which are none), so 332 to 206, but that is a gross oversimplification.

  4. Another William Playfair Web

    Based on all that I’ve said above (the polling is accurate, see above) I’d say Hillary does better than Obama with the EC but still doesn’t hit 400.

  5. Another William Playfair Web

    Speaking of the election,
    What do you think of Liz Warren, Robert?

  6. Jason Y

    Gosh, darn sensitive liberals moving to North Carolina from New England. Why don’t they stay where they belong.

    It all started with James:

    • Another William Playfair Web

      we is gonna send them Whaite libs to Africa, to!!!!!!
      hee-haw

      • Another William Playfair Web

        AmRen.

        I still say stormfront is better than AmRen (less ignorant, maybe even smarter in and of it’s users).

        I know Robert is friends with him, but I found a picture of Jared Taylor;

        He got into a scuffle with these cool Jew radio/youtube show guys, he insisted the Egyptians were “Coptic” as in Greek?- but they were only taken over by the Macedonians later on. They were Caucasian, but not White by Taylor’s standards.

      • Jason Y

        Note: Not attacking white working class, only country club good ole boys.

  7. Waltem

    Looks like a toss-up.

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