Swing State Trends 2016: RIP US Republican Party

This election, as with so many others, is going to come down to the swing states.

In the last four Presidential elections since 2000, ten states have voted for both a Democratic and a Republican candidate.

They are: Nevada, Colorado, New Mexico, Iowa, Indiana, Ohio, Florida, Virginia, North Carolina, and New Hampshire.

main-qimg-5a4a0082ca62a48ccd2f8d7f6eddc1f6

Click to enlarge. Last four Presidential elections showing trends over time.

Nevada: R2 D2. This state is going over from Republican to Democrat, and the momentum is with the Democrats. A lot of Hispanics and Californians have moved into the Las Vegas area, turning this long-term red state blue. Conservative -> liberal.

Colorado: R2 D2. One more long-term Republican state going Democrat. Same as Nevada. This state is going Democratic. Many people are moving to the Denver area from all over the country, and the city is getting a reputation as a hip place to live. Also many Hispanics are moving here. Conservative -> liberal.

New Mexico: D3 R1. This state is going over to the Democrats in a major way. Not sure what is happening except maybe that a lot of the Hispanics who live there are starting to vote more. Otherwise it’s a mystery. Many Hispanics have always lived in this state, but it was still a conservative state. Strange. Conservative -> liberal.

Iowa: D3 R1. Headed over to the Democrats. I am thinking this state is lost to Republicans. This state is going Democratic in a big way, but I really do not understand why. Conservative -> liberal.

Indiana: R3 D1. Long-term Republican state starting to waver a bit. I think this state will stay Republican for now though. Conservative.

Ohio: R2 D2. Another Republican state going Democratic. Not sure why that is, but Rust Belt states in general are becoming impoverished, and whatever is left of the White working class there is voting Democrat. There is some very ugly voter suppression going on here, verging on crime. Conservative -> liberal.

Florida: R2 D2. Swing state teetering back and forth between Republicans and Democrats. Doesn’t lean one way or the other at the moment. In other words, it is up for grabs. Heavy duty voter suppression going on here. I do not know the history of this state, so I cannot tell you if it is Democrat going Republican or vice versa. I am also not sure of demographic trends. No trend, evenly divided.

Virginia: R2 D2. Very long-term Republican state going Democratic. Briefly the state is becoming less conservative. This was always a conservative White Southern cracker state just like the rest of them. There are many Blacks but not enough to swing elections, which is the typical case in the South. However, in recent years, a large number of tech firms have moved into Virginia. The workers who have moved here to work in this industry are coming from the North and are young, hip, moneyed middle and upper middle class White SWPL types who were Democrats in their previous state and continue to vote Democrat after moving to Virginia. Conservative -> liberal.

North Carolina: R3 D1. Appears to be slowly moving from Republican to Democrat, but the transition is just starting, so it is still mostly voting Democrat. Similar demographic trend to Virginia of young SWPL types moving into North Carolina for good jobs, in this case in the Research Triangle in the center of the state. But the longterm trend in this state looks bad for Republicans. Conservative, teetering.

New Hampshire: D3 R1. Very longterm Republican and conservative state is now apparently lost to Republicans for the forseeable future. The long-standing notion that New Hampshire is a conservative state needs to be re-evaluated. I do not know what happened here except that New Hampshire has apparently joined the rest of the Northeast and has turned into a normal Northeastern state. Conservative -> liberal.

Conclusion: As you can see, all ten swing states are either static, teetering Republican or heading from Republican to Democrat. There is not one single state that is teetering Democrat. Nor is there a single state anywhere in the US that is going from Democrat to Republican. The future looks nightmarish for Republicans, but their response to this is to go more and more rightwing, going against the trend in the nation.

70% of the swing states are becoming more liberal over time, and one Republican state is teetering towards becoming more liberal. One state is still Republican, but things are getting a bit shaky. Another state is completely up for grabs and does not appear to be trending either liberal or conservative. So it looks like the country as a whole is becoming more liberal over time. The Republican response to a nation becoming more liberal over time is to pivot hard to the Right. Lemmings, anyone?

Bottom line: Elephants are going extinct.

49 Comments

Filed under Colorado, Conservatism, Democrats, Florida, Hispanics, Iowa, Liberalism, Midwest, Nevada, New Mexico, North Carolina, Northeast, Political Science, Politics, Race/Ethnicity, Regional, Republicans, South, US Politics, USA, West, Whites

49 responses to “Swing State Trends 2016: RIP US Republican Party

  1. Another William Playfair Web

    The so-called “Rust Belt” is the only way the Republicans can win.

    But with most battleground states lost (many with large Hispanic populations) and Texas purpeling, that’s it.
    Utah and the Mormons don’t like the Alt-Right (god bless these people!)

    Best for GOP; 312-226 DEMs (just Pennsylvania flips to Republicans)
    worst case:
    Georgia, Arizona, Texas, Utah all flip while PA does not.
    403-135 Dems.

  2. James Schipper

    Dear Robert

    The US should really imitate all the other countries with a presidential system and adopt a country-wide presidential election with 2 rounds. That would end the phenomenon of swing states. The possibility of a second round between the 2 top candidates would eliminate the chance of a victory for a candidate who is not preferred by the majority.

    No wait, don’t those fricking Frenchies and Ruskies have such a system? Then it can’t be good for the US.

    Regards. James

  3. Jason Y

    Virginia is possibly a swing state because of the combo between a lot of blacks and an influx of Yankees moving down there.

    Considering it was capital of the confederacy, what a shame, LOL

    North Carolina may be becoming the same. It’s interesting to note I traveled to Charleston SC, and most of the white people I saw didn’t have southern accents, and I don’t think they were tourists.

  4. Jason Y

    Colorado R2 D2. One more long-term Republican state going Democrat. Same as Nevada. This state is going Democratic. Many people are moving to the Denver area from all over the country, and the city is getting a reputation as a hip place to live. Also many Hispanics are moving here. Conservative -> liberal.

    Could it be the grass, LOL? Now wonder Republicans don’t want to legalize because they know it would bring an influx of lefty immigrants and an end to right wing power.

  5. Gay State Girl

    IDK Hillary is not going to draw in large crowds like Osama did. Even her supporters are somewhat lukewarm.

    • Another William Playfair Web

      Osama“….lol…

      My favorite is “Mr. Obama Hussein”;

      (0:39 until end)

    • Tulio

      But Trump scares the living shit out of Democrats, so I think he will be a huge rallying cry, matching the previous election turnouts for Democrats.

  6. randomcommenter1111

    Wouldn’t Trump actually be a pivot to the left for the GOP? I know he and his supporters are often jackasses but when it comes to economic issues and US military expansion they tend to be way more collectivist and isolationist than the typical Republican.

    • Tulio

      No, because his supporters are hard right-wingers. Not centrists. Trump supporters and Sanders supporters absolutely hate one-another.

      • Another William Playfair Web

        Trump has many fascist views. It’s ditching “if the coloreds’ can have welfare, then we’re going to have to take it away from everyone” and making it into “Socialism for the Master Nordic White Anglo Race”.

        That’s the difference.
        Bernie is obviously a leftist, who wants moderated socialism for everyone, while Trump wants hard core socialism/authortarianism to just benefit the “master race”

        • Jason Y

          I don’t think Trump is a racist. Why would people assume he’s for some Hitler type socialism just cause he said he opposed illegal immigration strongly, free trade etc..

          Iv’e not seen he is for socialism for anyone at all. His views are like Robert Kiyokask’s, the real estate guru. Iv’e read his book and it’s straight hardcore libertarianism.

        • Another William Playfair Web

          Jason-
          Daily Stormer, the leading Nazi website refers to him as “dear leader”

          His supporters blame the Mexicans for the Wifi not working and stubbing their toe.
          There hysterical/obsessed.
          Yes, it’s like the Third Reich.

        • Jason Y

          Yeah Trump is pretty scary. Nonetheless, it seems like he’s just playing poltical games which just happen to please WNs. Over course, the actual presidency might not match his talk. However, as with Hitler, it’s better to be safe than sorry.

          I think with Trump though he wll find you can’t backstab NWO without a payback. This could be the end of the US as other nations might finally finish us offm just as was the case with Hitler.

        • Jason Y

          I don’t think Trump can accomplish the hateful things he says totally, but as a matter of principle it might be a good time for opponents move elsewhere. So people better start a savings account.

        • Another William Playfair Web

          I don’t think Trump can accomplish the hateful things he says totally, but as a matter of principle it might be a good time for opponents move elsewhere. So people better start a savings account.

          At least I have my extrapolated DNA test results to show I’m (depending on your definition)
          86% Nordic, 98% European
          except when he starts sending Nukes every which direction it won’t matter.
          At least I hopefully won’t see the inside of a “liberty camp”
          hooray!

        • Another William Playfair Web

          My friend offered to bet me whether or not by the end of this decade (12/31/2019), that the average American would believe that Mexicans are shape shifters.
          And I didn’t take that bet..
          an exaggeration, but only slightly

          compared with;

        • Another William Playfair Web

          Trump’s not that that smart. Almost anyone on this blog could write his material

        • Gay State Girl

          Nah he just dumbs himself down and he’s not alone in this regard.

        • Another William Playfair Web

          Well he’s not stupid. He’s well above the median.
          However, he’s not too too bright, for he thinks this a novel new idea, splitting the vote. He thinks he came up with it.
          Maybe his ego just stunts his IQ.
          Maybe

        • Another William Playfair Web

          he just says things directly. Not trying to do things subtly about it.
          Sanders supporters generally don’t like Trump, it will just alienate that idea from their heads.

          It doesn’t say much about his IQ, but it shows in his “mind” critical thinking is for MexicanTs

        • Another William Playfair Web

          Plus, it could take away from his voters….

        • Another William Playfair Web

          Yeah Trump is pretty scary. Nonetheless, it seems like he’s just playing poltical games which just happen to please WNs. Over course, the actual presidency might not match his talk. However, as with Hitler, it’s better to be safe than sorry.

          If there is an ethnic cleansing, all the people that backed Trump need to be punished (unlike WW2, Bosnia, and Rwanda).

          It’s the only way to prevent it from happening in the future.
          whether that means depriving them of liberty, property or life
          He’s a bastard.
          He deserves hell.
          I take it most of you guys are Atheists?

        • Another William Playfair Web

          It’s not what he’s done or will do.
          It’s the fact that for his own pathetic ego/self-worth, he is willing to endanger the lives of millions of migrants, in the U.S. and Europe, who are not all bad people. They have struggled for what they have, and are human. It shows he’s a truly demented human. Like Richard III.

          “We’re all made of stars”

        • Another William Playfair Web

          Speaking of Bernie…
          why are the WNs/Alt-Righters oddly indifferent to perhaps the most powerful/admired men among their race (White), who happen to belong to the “races” they hate,
          Black Obama and Jewish Bernie.

          They’re never mentioned by the Alt-Right.

        • Tulio

          Trump maybe not be a hardcore neo-nazi type racist, but when I hear someone say things like “THE blacks” it harks back to that sort of segregated urban northeastern Archie Bunker mentality. Like you’d hear many NYC Italians act in the 80s.

        • Another William Playfair Web

          Trump supporters don’t like Italians;

          -Rick Santorum birther movement.
          -murmurings about Carly Fiorina’s mental stability (‘she’ll be just like Caligula and Nero’)

          -If Trump’s main opponent had been “Benito Vespucci” instead of “Ted Cruz”, it would all be brought out into the open.

        • Jason Y

          At least I have my extrapolated DNA test results to show I’m (depending on your definition)
          86% Nordic, 98% European
          except when he starts sending Nukes every which direction it won’t matter.
          At least I hopefully won’t see the inside of a “liberty camp”
          hooray!

          Unfortunately superior genes aren’t good enough to resist nuclear fallout.

        • Jason Y

          Donald Trump you just won the anti-christ billion dollar jackpot. 😆

        • Jason Y

          Trump maybe not be a hardcore neo-nazi type racist, but when I hear someone say things like “THE blacks” it harks back to that sort of segregated urban northeastern Archie Bunker mentality. Like you’d hear many NYC Italians act in the 80s.

          The hate always gone both ways in NYC.

        • Another William Playfair Web

          That’s what he’s tapped into at this point;

          the fact that for his own pathetic ego/self-worth, he is willing to endanger the lives of millions of migrants, in the U.S. and Europe, who are not all bad people. They have struggled for what they have, and are human. It shows he’s a truly demented human.

        • Gay State Girl

          He never said it was a novel idea. He is capable of more sophisticated humor and eloquence, he simply talks this way to demonstrate to his base that he’s “just like them.”

        • Another William Playfair Web

          I wonder if Trump does have a personality disorder. I think he suffers from delusions/is mildly out of touch with reality is psychotic.
          It appears to the outside observer, as 1. lack of common knowledge 2. douchebag, 3. senility, 4. pathological lying.

          Cruz the sociopath, on the day he dropped out, says this to Trump. He has a knack for getting under people’s skin.

          His supporters are fucktards. The most vicious, and irrelevant personal attacks against Cruz’s beautiful MexicanT/Crypto Jew/Sand nigga family is “sticking to the issues”….

        • Another William Playfair Web

          realclearpolitics.com

          CRUZ:”*I’m going to tell you what I really think of Donald Trump. This man is a pathological liar. He doesn’t know the difference between truth and lies. He lies practically every word that comes out of his mouth. And in a pattern that I think is straight out of a psychology textbook, his response is to accuse everybody else of lying.

          He accuses everybody on that debate stage of lying. And it’s simply a mindless yell. Whatever he does, he accuses everyone else of doing. The man cannot tell the truth, but he combines it with being a narcissist. A narcissist at a level I don’t think this country has ever seen.

          Donald Trump is such a narcissist that Barack Obama looks at him and goes, ‘Dude, what’s your problem?’ Everything in Donald’s world is about Donald. And he combines being a pathological liar, and I say pathological because I actually think Donald, if you hooked him up to a lie detector test, he could say one thing in the morning, one thing at noon and one thing in the evening, all contradictory and he’s pass the lie detector test each time. Whatever lie he’s telling, at that minute he believes it.*”

        • Another William Playfair Web

          realclearpolitics.com
          Cruz: “I’m going to tell you what I really think of Donald Trump. This man is a pathological liar. He doesn’t know the difference between truth and lies. He lies practically every word that comes out of his mouth. And in a pattern that I think is straight out of a psychology textbook, his response is to accuse everybody else of lying. He accuses everybody on that debate stage of lying. And it’s simply a mindless yell. Whatever he does, he accuses everyone else of doing. The man cannot tell the truth, but he combines it with being a narcissist. A narcissist at a level I don’t think this country has ever seen. Donald Trump is such a narcissist that Barack Obama looks at him and goes, ‘Dude, what’s your problem?’ Everything in Donald’s world is about Donald. And he combines being a pathological liar, and I say pathological because I actually think Donald, if you hooked him up to a lie detector test, he could say one thing in the morning, one thing at noon and one thing in the evening, all contradictory and he’s pass the lie detector test each time. Whatever lie he’s telling, at that minute he believes it.

        • Another William Playfair Web

          Next ploy of the stop-Trump movement:
          have his sister, the Federal Judge, declare him mentally incompetent

        • Another William Playfair Web

          Trump doesn’t really have any need to read.
          Except his big-boy Foreign policy speeches.

          Even the Chinese (who are inferior to Whites), could build a Great Wall, and you don’t see any illegal MexicanTs there

          If Trump said this at a rally his people would cheer…

        • Gay State Girl

          It’s still funny. I always thought he sounds as though he had some sort of learning disability whenever he opens his mouth, maybe that gave him a sort of napoleon complex and propelled him to act this way. He’d never admit it though.

      • Gay State Girl

        This was funny though.🙂

        • Another William Playfair Web

          “Close the boarder
          “I’m voteing for Tromp

          both real spelling mistakes from Trumpkins.
          He’s in good company🙂

        • Another William Playfair Web

          what about “lying Ted”?
          It’s not clever. No aliteration. It was retarded.

          pumpkinperson did an analysis of both Trump and Coulter’s IQ and he’s gotten lots of their fans (not regular commenters) who say nasty things (I presume) aggressively, but are largely incoherent.

          If that was flipped they’d at least have a coherent argument “Racist” or “environmental factors” or :”conservatives are more reactionary and hence lower IQ”.

          There’s no way conservatives have higher IQs than liberals, I mean by definition it is a lower IQ thing (slightly, and I know plenty of smart cons).

          With Racialists- pumpkin says it depends on what race one is racist against (compassion for the lesser (as a race)/liberalism is correlated with high IQ, so anti-Black racists aren’t too smart, but unfortunately anti-Semites are smarter, plus the Jew stereotypes are more subtle than Black ones),
          Some of the smarter High-Tech guys are prejuidiced against Asians because of the Job thing (just based on sheer contact), that type of thing.

        • Another William Playfair Web

          I’ve heard tell that Trump supporters have an average IQ of 81 (only 10% of Trumpkins as smart as the median American).
          Using Rodrigo La Jara’s standardized bell curve that comes out to 81 on American norms
          seemed too low, but plausible, still….

        • Another William Playfair Web

          using other sources,
          if his harcore supporters were 38% of the GOP (23% of the pop), of 325 mil Americans, and admiration correlates 0.28 with IQ,
          his expected IQ of 104 on American Norms
          You’re probably right, he’s faking there’s no way his IQ is that low.

          That could be the IQ of his persona.

        • Gay State Girl

          His own tweets are rife with spelling errors, something Rubio seized upon…

          http://www.motherjones.com/mojo/2016/02/marco-rubio-mocks-trump-spelling

  7. Steve Jackson

    New Hampshire flipped because lots of liberals from neighboring states

    The common thread to most of the other states is immigration.

    • Another William Playfair Web

      Hispanics are not as bad as everyone says (much of the rhetoric is pure hysteria, ask Robert Lindsay, who lives in a predominatley Hispanic neighborhood).
      Although I’m sure Romney and McCain won a solid Majority of the White vote in states with a large Hispanic population, it wasn’t enough. The Hispanics overwhelmingly voting Democrat with Whites not really united against the Hispanics/democrats, caused the democrats to easily carry them.
      and they will continue to
      (I’m speaking of Colorado, New Mexico, Cali, etc.)

      The mid-west has the most anti-immigrant sentiment, but still voted for Cruz over Trump.
      Perhaps it’s not race based.
      They would take highly unkindly to a bunch of uppity Eastern European Models like Melania Trump and family moving over there, as well…..

  8. Jason Y

    A cynic might say many people don’t want jobs Trump has to offer by stopping NWO. Perhaps they like welfare. In that case, no matter what the race, they’re not voting for Trump.

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