First of all, AP is a hard rightwing organization run by millionaire fundamentalist Christian Texans, some of whom are Christian Reconstructionists, with deep ties to corporate America. AP has a deep Republican bias, and based on their articles, especially by Liz Sidotti, they are pulling out all the stops for the Republicans with their biased reporting.
Much is being made of a New York Times – CBS TV poll on October 27. It showed Republicans with a 6 point lead in the generic Congress race. Other recent polls come up with similar numbers.
However, as I noted earlier, all of these polls leave out “cell phone only” voters. Many of these are young people. So far, the two polls that included cell phone only voters gave Democrats a 6 point lead in the generic Congress poll. That means that the recent NYT-CBS poll is wrong by a margin of 12 points. I’d like some more information on the cell phone only voters polls. Did they poll registered voters or likely voters?
All projections of huge Republican gains in the House and Senate are based on these flawed polls, which are off by a full 12 points.
Now, it’s possible that even with a 6 point lead in the generic poll, Democrats will lose the House. I don’t understand the polling well enough to comment on that. But they won’t lose the Senate. At the very least, I am quite certain this is not going to be the wipeout everyone says it will be.
Many races are very close:
Democrat Barbara Boxer is beating Republican zillionaire Carly Fiorina by 5 points. Boxer will win in a close race.
Democrat Harry Reid is tied with Republican Sharron Angle. Toss up!
Democrat Joe Sestak and Republican Pat Toomey are tied in Pennsylvania. Toomey should have been walking away with this one. Toss up!
Democrat Patty Murphy is up by 2 points over Republican Dino Rossi in Washington. She’s going to win, but it will be very close.
In early voting, more Democrats have voted than Republicans in North Carolina! This means super-nut Republican Richard Burr may lose to Democrat Elaine Marshall!
Republican Ron Johnson is up by 2 points over Democrat Russ Feingold in Wisconsin. He may well win a cliffhanger race.
Democrat Scott McAdams is now leading the crazy 3-way race in Alaska with Republican Joe Miller and Libertarian Lisa Murkowski! The Democrat may win, but it will be close and crazy!
Republican Rob Portman will probably defeat Democrat Lee Fisher in Ohio but it will be a close race.
In a 3-way race in crazy Florida, Republican mental patient Marco Rubio will defeat both closet gay Independent Charlie Christ and Democrat Kendrick Meek.
Republican Mike Lee will surely defeat Democrat Sam Granato in Utah.
Republican Don Hoeven faces Democrat Tracy Potter in North Dakota. I haven’t the faintest idea who will win.
Team Crazy Republican Ken Buck ought to be walking away with the race in Colorado. Instead, he’s tied with Democrat Micheal Bennet!
Republican lunatic Cristine O’Donnell will lose badly to Democrat Chris Coons in Delaware.
Democrat Ron Wyden will easily defeat Republican Jim Huffman in Oregon.
Democrat Barbara Mikulski will easily defeat zillionarie Republican Eric Wargotz in Maryland.
Republican Tom Coburn will handily beat Democrat Jim Rogers in Oklahoma.
Democrats Kristin Gillibrand and Chuck Schumer will destroy the Republicans in New York.
Democrat Daniel Inouye will destroy Republican Cam Cavasso in Hawaii.
Republican Johnny Isakson will defeat Democrat Mike Thurmond in Georgia.
Democrat Pat Leahy will easily defeat Republican Len Britton in Vermont.
Republican Jim DeMint, lunatic, will handily defeat Democrat Alvin Greene in South Carolina.
Republican Jerry Moran will easily beat Democrat Lisa Johnston in Kansas.
Republican nut Rand Paul is tied with Democrat Jack Conway in Kentucky. Toss-up!
Democrat Richard Blumenthal will beat wrestling mogul Republican Linda McMahon in Connecticut.
Republican kook Roy Blunt will defeat Democrat Robin Carnahan in Missouri, but it will be a close race.
Democrat Blanche Lincoln will lose to Republican John Boozman in Arkansas in a close race.
Republican Mike Crapo will easily defeat Democrat Tom Sullivan in Idaho.
Republican Chuck Grassley will defeat Democrat Roxanne Conlin in Iowa.
Democrat Alexi Giannoulias is beating Republican Mark Kirk in Illinois. He will win, but it will be close.
Republican Kelly Ayotte will defeat Democrat Paul Hode in New Hampshire in a close race.
Democrat Joe Manchin is starting to pull away from Republican John Raese in West Virginia.
Republican Dan Coats will easily defeat Democrat Brad Ellsworth in Indiana.
Republican John McCain will easily defeat Democrat Rodney Glassman in Arizona.
Republican David Vitter will defeat Democrat Charlie Melancon in Louisiana, but incredibly enough, it will be very close.